Postby stancaris » Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:47 pm
Pan Zareta: Why do I believe strongly that Buckpasser's X chromosome is important in broodmare sire success and also an important factor in handicapping the Triple Crown events?
When I used the Buckpasser in the X factor along with fast final fractions, I came up with strong impact values and strong ROIs in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes. These impact values were usually over 3.00 and the ROIs were usually over 100% profit.
I have had confidence in the above method for many years now and in the Belmont stakes my recommendations for my customers at American Turf Monthly proved extremely lucrative since I advised them to play an exacta box of six horses: Tonalist, California Chrome, Commissioner, Medal Count, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong. The $1 EXACTA BOX came in and paid $174.
I recommended a Trifecta Key of Tonalist in the win position with Ride On Curlin, California Chrome, Medal Count, Matterhorn, Commanding Curve, Commissioner, Matuszak, in the place and show positions. The $1 Trifecta Key came in and paid a whopping $3,390.50.
I recommended a Superfecta Key of Tonalist in the win position with Ride On Curlin, California Chrome, Medal Count, Matterhorn, Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong, Commissioner, and Matuszak in the place, show and fourth positions. Two superfectas came in because of a dead heat for fourth: With California Chrome the super paid $380 for 10cents. With Wicked Strong fourth the super paid $573 for a dime.
I also recommended a Trifecta Key with Wicked Strong in the win position with the other 8 horses second, third. That LOST
I also recommended a Superfecta Key with Wicked Strong in the win position with the other 8 horses for second, third and fourth. That LOST.
The Total Cost of the Above if one were to use the above amounts that I listed was $279 and the Total Return was $4,517.
Now what does the above have to do with Buckpasser in the X plus fast final fractions in races at 9 furlongs or longer?
The Following runners in the Belmont carried Buckpasser in the X passing position and also achieved fast final fractions in races at 9 furlongs or longer:
Tonalist, the winner who returned $20 for $2 raced the last 3 furlongs of the Peter Pan in less than 37 4/5 seconds. He carried Buckpasser in the X.
Commissioner, the place horse at 28-1 raced the last 3 furlongs of the Peter Pan in 37 4/5 or less. He also carried Buckpasser in the X.
Wicked Strong who dead heated for fourth raced the last 3 furlongs of the Wood Memorial in 37 4/5 or less. He also carried Buckpasser in the X.
California Chrome who dead heated for fourth raced the last 3 furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby in 37 4/5 or less. He carried Buckpasser in the X.
So, the winner, the place horse, and the two horses that dead heated for fourth all carried Buckpasser in the X passing position and all raced the last three furlongs of a major prep at 9 furlongs in 37 4/5 or less.
Regardless of whether or not the above qualified on all the rules that I set up is not relevant because the BOTTOM LINE is WHAT I RECOMMENDED TO MY CUSTOMERS AND HOW I PLAYED THE BELMONT MYSELF. BY THE WAY, I COLLECTED $4517 AND CHANGE AND HAD TO SIGN FOR THE TRIFECTA (IRS).
Now this wasn't the first time I hit big on using the above angle and that is why I feel so strongly that the Buckpasser in the X factor is a very lucrative method.
Since, 1989 in the Belmont Stakes there have been only 26 qualifiers on my Buckpasser in the X angle plus fast final fractions. Of these 26 qualifiers 7 won, 5 were second, 3 were third. So, we have a total of 15 that were in the trifecta. Thats 57.7% making the trifecta. Now whats more lucrative about this angle is that there were several big payoffs among the 7 winners (I left out Tonalist from this group as technically he did not qualify because he was a frontrunner in his race that qualified him on final fraction time). However, that didn't stop me from KEYING him in the Trifecta and Superfecta.
Other big payoffs in the Belmont that fit my Buckpasser angle were: Drosselmeyer in 2010 who returned $28 for 2 bucks. He was the only qualifier that year on this angle.
Summer Bird who won at 12-1 in 2009 and paid 25.80. Dunkirk who ran second also fit the Buckpasser angle and the exacta was large. 3 qualifiers on the Buckpasser angle finished in the superfecta that year: Summer Bird first, Dunkirk second, and Charitable Man third. And there were ONLY 4 qualifiers on the Buckpasser angle that year. One ran out Flying Private.
In 2003 Empire Maker and Funny Cide both qualified on my Buckpasser angle and finished first and second. They were the only qualifiers on the Buckpasser angle that year.
In 1999 Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse were the only 2 qualifiers on my Buckpasser angle and they finished first and second and comprised a huge exacta. I forget how much but it was extremely large.
I have tremendous confidence in the above angle and it has placed a hefty profit in my pocket in several years as mentioned above.
The above method is lucrative. I do not believe that the X has at best only minor importance in broodmare sire success.