Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

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Pan Zareta
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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby Pan Zareta » Tue Jun 17, 2014 11:53 am

stancaris wrote:Pan Zareta: You can post, repost, or refer us to any of Byron Rogers statements. Those statements are an OPINION, NOT FACT. When Mr. Rogers states that I am over-rating the X chromosome; that is an opinion, NOT a FACT. Genomic research does NOT prove that the X chromosome as you say plays only a minor role in broodmare sire success

Genome-wide association studies for elite performance in the TB prove that the "important alleles" (variants) on the x are not as important to elite performance, by which broodmare sire success is determined, as many variants elsewhere in the genome. Those are the facts. There is no way you can spin them into support for your claims that the x is of greatest importance to elite performance/broodmare sire success without misrepresenting the facts, and your source for them.

And, btw, you might want to rethink some of what you're setting forth in print re. your mtDNA angle in terms of mitochondrial families rather than Lowe-numbered families.

[edited for spelling]

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby stancaris » Tue Jun 17, 2014 1:52 pm

Pan Zareta: Your post above is highly opinionated. You have no proof that the X chromosome at best only plays a minor role in broodmare sire success. Your take that the X only carries variants that are of minor value is NOT A FACT. You have trouble distinguishing between FACT and OPINION.

There are variants on the X chromosome that play an important role in broodmare sire success.

Genomic research does NOT prove that these variants on the X only play a minor role in that success.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby Pan Zareta » Tue Jun 17, 2014 2:22 pm

page 4, 'The Mares in Great Sires' thread, 20 Oct 2011
brogers wrote:
stancaris wrote:
brogers:

1) you said there are variants on the X chromosome that relate to elite performance. It seems to me that this supports the idea of superior broodmaresof sires like Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, hoist the flag etc. These stallions were famous for getting super daughters who in turn got great runners both sons and daughters. Main point... The x chromosome is vital to the overall success of racehorses.



Yes there are variants on the X chromosome that relate to elite performance

But they are far from "vital to the overall success of racehorses"

We have identified 37 SNP variants across 19 sites on the genome that separate out elite performance from non elite. The variant that reached statistical significance (P value) on the X chromosome is one of these 37 SNP's.

The problem is that when you rank them for relevance, the SNP on the X chromosome is not in the top 10 as far as importance is concerned. There are significantly more important SNP's in terms of performance, that are located on other chromosomes. You are over-rating the variant on the X Chromosome.


page 12 'The Mares in Great Sires' thread, 20 Nov 2011.

brogers wrote:
stancaris wrote:Performance is related to the X chromosome according to Byron Rogers and the company he works for.


Stan,

Let's not overstate the case.

1) We found that there are variants within genes on the X Chromosome that appear in elite horses against non-elite.

2) We also found that there are 18 other sites across 9 other chromosomes that also have variants within genes that appear in elite horses against non-elite.

3) The variants that appear on the X, in terms of influence, do not appear to be as important as others. There are variants on the 18 Chromosome for example are significantly more important when it comes to elite performance than any variant appearing on the X.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby stancaris » Tue Jun 17, 2014 3:47 pm

Pan Zareta: Why do I believe strongly that Buckpasser's X chromosome is important in broodmare sire success and also an important factor in handicapping the Triple Crown events?

When I used the Buckpasser in the X factor along with fast final fractions, I came up with strong impact values and strong ROIs in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes. These impact values were usually over 3.00 and the ROIs were usually over 100% profit.

I have had confidence in the above method for many years now and in the Belmont stakes my recommendations for my customers at American Turf Monthly proved extremely lucrative since I advised them to play an exacta box of six horses: Tonalist, California Chrome, Commissioner, Medal Count, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong. The $1 EXACTA BOX came in and paid $174.

I recommended a Trifecta Key of Tonalist in the win position with Ride On Curlin, California Chrome, Medal Count, Matterhorn, Commanding Curve, Commissioner, Matuszak, in the place and show positions. The $1 Trifecta Key came in and paid a whopping $3,390.50.

I recommended a Superfecta Key of Tonalist in the win position with Ride On Curlin, California Chrome, Medal Count, Matterhorn, Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong, Commissioner, and Matuszak in the place, show and fourth positions. Two superfectas came in because of a dead heat for fourth: With California Chrome the super paid $380 for 10cents. With Wicked Strong fourth the super paid $573 for a dime.

I also recommended a Trifecta Key with Wicked Strong in the win position with the other 8 horses second, third. That LOST

I also recommended a Superfecta Key with Wicked Strong in the win position with the other 8 horses for second, third and fourth. That LOST.

The Total Cost of the Above if one were to use the above amounts that I listed was $279 and the Total Return was $4,517.

Now what does the above have to do with Buckpasser in the X plus fast final fractions in races at 9 furlongs or longer?

The Following runners in the Belmont carried Buckpasser in the X passing position and also achieved fast final fractions in races at 9 furlongs or longer:

Tonalist, the winner who returned $20 for $2 raced the last 3 furlongs of the Peter Pan in less than 37 4/5 seconds. He carried Buckpasser in the X.

Commissioner, the place horse at 28-1 raced the last 3 furlongs of the Peter Pan in 37 4/5 or less. He also carried Buckpasser in the X.

Wicked Strong who dead heated for fourth raced the last 3 furlongs of the Wood Memorial in 37 4/5 or less. He also carried Buckpasser in the X.

California Chrome who dead heated for fourth raced the last 3 furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby in 37 4/5 or less. He carried Buckpasser in the X.

So, the winner, the place horse, and the two horses that dead heated for fourth all carried Buckpasser in the X passing position and all raced the last three furlongs of a major prep at 9 furlongs in 37 4/5 or less.

Regardless of whether or not the above qualified on all the rules that I set up is not relevant because the BOTTOM LINE is WHAT I RECOMMENDED TO MY CUSTOMERS AND HOW I PLAYED THE BELMONT MYSELF. BY THE WAY, I COLLECTED $4517 AND CHANGE AND HAD TO SIGN FOR THE TRIFECTA (IRS).

Now this wasn't the first time I hit big on using the above angle and that is why I feel so strongly that the Buckpasser in the X factor is a very lucrative method.

Since, 1989 in the Belmont Stakes there have been only 26 qualifiers on my Buckpasser in the X angle plus fast final fractions. Of these 26 qualifiers 7 won, 5 were second, 3 were third. So, we have a total of 15 that were in the trifecta. Thats 57.7% making the trifecta. Now whats more lucrative about this angle is that there were several big payoffs among the 7 winners (I left out Tonalist from this group as technically he did not qualify because he was a frontrunner in his race that qualified him on final fraction time). However, that didn't stop me from KEYING him in the Trifecta and Superfecta.

Other big payoffs in the Belmont that fit my Buckpasser angle were: Drosselmeyer in 2010 who returned $28 for 2 bucks. He was the only qualifier that year on this angle.

Summer Bird who won at 12-1 in 2009 and paid 25.80. Dunkirk who ran second also fit the Buckpasser angle and the exacta was large. 3 qualifiers on the Buckpasser angle finished in the superfecta that year: Summer Bird first, Dunkirk second, and Charitable Man third. And there were ONLY 4 qualifiers on the Buckpasser angle that year. One ran out Flying Private.

In 2003 Empire Maker and Funny Cide both qualified on my Buckpasser angle and finished first and second. They were the only qualifiers on the Buckpasser angle that year.

In 1999 Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse were the only 2 qualifiers on my Buckpasser angle and they finished first and second and comprised a huge exacta. I forget how much but it was extremely large.

I have tremendous confidence in the above angle and it has placed a hefty profit in my pocket in several years as mentioned above.

The above method is lucrative. I do not believe that the X has at best only minor importance in broodmare sire success.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby stancaris » Tue Jun 17, 2014 4:13 pm

Note: I forget to mention that I also recommended a win wager on Wicked Strong that lost and I also recommended three longshot plays: Tonalist, Commissioner and Commanding Curve. I lost 30 on Wicked Strong and 30 on Commissioner which brings the total to 279 invested and 4,517 and change returned.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby DDT » Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:22 pm

You can have all of the confidence in the world in the angle, however, the fast final fractions that Tonalist posted in his Peter Pan did not qualify that race under your time rule for the Belmont because he achieved that win in front running fashion. The time posted by Commissioner, when adjusted for lengths behind the leader are not fast enough to qualify him, so like I posted earlier, you disregard your own published method to wager on these non-qualifiers. The sole purpose of formulating the time indicator was to eliminate losers because if you do not eliminate the losers having Buckpasser in an X passing positions is insignificant to the method.

DDT

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby stancaris » Tue Jun 17, 2014 6:20 pm

DDT: All you want to do is find fault with my research. The least you can do if you want to criticize my methods is to be accurate with your statements.

Your statement that the time posted by Commissioner, when adjusted for beaten lengths is not fast enough to qualify him. So you purposely state something WRONG to try to make me look bad. You are a great BS artist and this is not the first time that you have done this. You continually stalk all my posts and consistently say things that are NOT TRUE . Commissioner qualifies on final fraction time as follows:

He raced 6 furlongs of the Peter Pan while 2 1/2 lengths behind the leader whose time was 1:10.89. That makes his six furlong time 1:11.39 (1:10.89 plus .50 equals 1:11.39). Since he was 4 lengths behind the winner whose time was 1:48.30 his final time was 1:49.10. Therefore his final 3/8 was run in 37.71 (1:49.10 minus 1:11.39 equals 37.71). He raced the last 3 furlongs of the Peter Pan in 37.71.

What bothers you most is that I recommended the winning EXACTA, TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA ON THE BELMONT AND 4 HORSES THAT COMPRISED THE SUPERFECTA, THE WINNER, THE PLACE FINISHER, THE TWO HORSES THAT DEAD HEATED FOR FOURTH ALL CARRIED BUCKPASSER IN THE X AND DID RUN THEIR FINAL 3/8 IN 37 4/5 OR LESS. THE $4,517 SPEAKS LOUD AND CLEAR FOR MY BUCKPASSER METHOD AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT IS WHAT I RECOMMENDED TO MY CUSTOMERS AT AMERICAN TURF. FLEXIBILITY IN HANDICAPPING IS OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE.

I will not ignore you when you post statements that are completely wrong about my research. And by the way don't try to wiggle out of the above by using some other method to calculate final 3/8 time. For example some other formula like 1 second on the clock equals 7 lengths. I have always used the formula that 1 second on the clock equals 5 lengths for all my research.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby DDT » Tue Jun 17, 2014 8:15 pm

Stan

The leader's split time from 6f to 1 mile was logged in at 24:74, Commissioner's time is 25:34 for that split because he was 3 1/2 lengths behind the leader, rounded down that is :60. The leader's final 1/8th was 12:67, Commissioner finished 4 lengths behind the winner making his final 1/8th 13:47, which gives Commissioner a non-qualifying final 3/8ths time of 38:81. I do not think that is BS. I could care less how successful you are at advising your clients in any manner, what upsets me is your continued statements as to any advantage having Buckpasser in the X passing position gives runners in the classics, the facts prove otherwise. Your time indicator pointed out 27 winners in the Derby over a 40 year period, 23 of those winners did not have Buckpasser in an X passing position. The 4 winners that did have Buckpasser in an X passing position are in fact the winners you used to formulate the time indicator, and all of the other indicators formulated for your angle stem from factors that all 4 of them had in common. That fact is also not BS.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby Pan Zareta » Tue Jun 17, 2014 9:17 pm

stancaris wrote:Pan Zareta: Why do I believe strongly that Buckpasser's X chromosome is important in broodmare sire success and also an important factor in handicapping the Triple Crown events?

I didn't ask why you believe what you do. There's never been any doubt that you're mistaking association for causation. I merely re-posted proof that the genomic variants most important to elite performance are not on the x, that you are still "over-rating" its importance, and that it is you, not I, that have the problem distinguishing between fact and opinion.

The payouts are impressive but it's hardly surprising that the presence of Buckpasser in pedigree would be predictive of success in a 12f G1 dirt race now, is it? You believe this has something to do with his x but, in fact, you can only guess from rough averages how much of any of his chromosomes these horses actually received. If any of them inherited a certain block from one of his copies of chrom. 18 it would be far more helpful in this particular race than anything on the x.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby stancaris » Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:39 am

DDT: You continue to sling BS. There is no math system on earth that could get Commissioner's final 3/8 of the Peter Pan in 38.81. Except perhaps Abbot and Costello mathematical jokes.

You pulled the number out thin air without even listing his 6 furlong time which is simply subtracted from his final 9 furlong time to determine the final 3/8.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby DDT » Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:31 am

Stan

His 6 furlong time is adjusted to 1.11:29, his mile time is adjusted to 1.36:03 which makes his final quarter split time 24:74 and his final time is adjusted to 1.49:10 which makes his final 1/8th time 13:07. I did make an error and his final 3/8ths time is 37:81 by my calculations.

DDT

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby stancaris » Wed Jun 18, 2014 4:19 am

DDT: You admit to making an error. How very honest of you. How about the error you made with regard to Orb. You stated that Orb was the first horse to win the Derby while carrying Buckpasser in the X and NOT qualifying on final fraction time. Better look again at the data for Orb. He ran the last 3 furlongs of the Florida Derby in 37 4/5 or less.

You conveniently made that error as well.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby DDT » Wed Jun 18, 2014 6:45 am

Stan

I made the same error with Orb, both of these errors on my part were not an attempt by me to deliberately deceive you or readers of the forum, they were both math mistakes. In addition, I would also add that both Orb and Commissioner ran their respective final 1/8th in 13 seconds and change. Now, since you believe these errors were somehow BS spin on my part, please point to any other instance where you believe BS was or is involved.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby Pan Zareta » Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:41 am

Lighten up and stop dripping sarcasm, Stan. Everyone makes mistakes.

No one is denying that the presence in pedigree of champion router Buckpasser may be useful to establishing betting angles for the 12f Belmont S. What's questionable is the rationale for restricting consideration of his presence by position (x passing) rather than proximity. It's like saying that Buckpasser's contribution didn't matter much to Jazil (3d gen non x-passing) but was the key to success for his half sister Rags to Riches (4th gen x-passing).

That strains credibility, not to mention common sense. Furthermore, and regardless of your emphatic UPPER CASE DENIALS, the genome-based evidence indicates the restriction by x passing position is purely arbitrary. There is no major association between the x and elite performance at the molecular level.

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Re: Toll Fee by Topsider-Toll Booth 2nd dam of Tonalist

Postby DDT » Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:15 am

Stan

When you talk about BS and distortion of facts, on another thread on this forum you made a post concerning mid-year earnings and the FACT that out of the top 24 2014 earnings, excluding females, there were 12 runners that have Buckpasser in an X passing position, or 50%. The FACT is that only 10 males out of the top 24 have Buckpasser in an X passing position, they are California Chrome, Tonalist, Wicked Strong, Vicar's in Trouble, Game on Dude, Ride on Curlin, Wildcat Red, Commanding Curve, Commissioner and Chitu, which equates to 42%. Was this just an honest mistake by you or is it just BS?

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