Why TrueNicks are bringing and end to Dosage appearing on their reports

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truenicks/archive/2018/12/10/the-disappearance-of-dosage.aspx

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Byron Rogers
Performance Genetics
http://performancegenetics.com
Keen Ice...Verrazano...Fontiton...Divisidero...Breaking Lucky...Hoss Amor...

Thank you for posting that information. I have always wondered about the reliability and relevance of dosage.

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So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

I enjoyed having dosage as an extra tool, I wish someone would have taken up the mantel and kept it up to date.

I think that Byron was a little premature in announcing the demise of dosage. You will notice that Pedigree Online has now updated their chefs-de-race list to include the latest updates from our Australia and New Zealand list. You can find out more details on the full list and recent updates on http://www.dosages.com.au. We will be working towards updating the main influences that are missing from our list in the coming months. For those of you who have utilised dosage through the TesioPower program, John Hutchinson worked closely with the developers of that computer resource to create the first ANZ list, and we continue to update this list regularly. With the retirement of Dr Roman, we will look at investigating influences that are perhaps not commonly found in Australasia. With the world though becoming a smaller place, there are many shuttle stallions who have already been classified. The list of course includes Dr Roman's last published list.

Ross
Progold Thoroughbreds

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Progold

In his latest book Roman wrote,

"We apply one absolute criterion to chef-de-race selection. The chef-de-race candidate must be prepotent for aptitudinal type. Furthermore, we must be able to demonstrate his prepotence using statistical analysis. It would be helpful, although not necessary to the analysis if the chef-de-race candidate were a sire of sires or a sire of quality broodmares. In this way we would increase the sample size and show that prepotent influences carry through to successive generations ... The critical factor is enough racing data generated by his runners to allow for a meaningful statistical study."

Please provide the statistical analysis you used in your latest chef-de-race selections.

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Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire

When will someone find a Professional Chef-de-race foaled sometime after 1976 ????

(I know you need the statistics to back it up {which indeed may be the greatest hurdle}... but there must be SOMEbody...)

I mean, Zabeel has certainly had considerable successes with long-distance types (but likely he's had significant successes at other distances too).


The whole Dosage thing is founded in great underlying sense, but it has been horrifically marketed for decades.

The black eye that was Alydar having been named a Chef immediately AFTER Nick Zito and his "voodoo" declaration, about the whole Dosage concept, was something from which Dosage never recovered. (Of course Alydar was every bit an appropriate Chef-de-Race)

And surely time has shown that Alydar has been a zillion times more important than Nick Zito.

Zito, now 0-1-0 from his last 23 Kentucky Derby starters, including five chances in 2005, when he finished 7-8-10-14-15.


Zito is 86 / 1197 since the beginning of 2015, at a whopping 7%

*** I tried to post all of that as one entry, and I got a response that I was "blocked" for some stupid reason. (2nd time tonight)


I didn't change a thing, and it let me post all of it over three separate entries.


What is this solving???

Well, on the bright side, indeed Zabeel is listed there as part Professional... BUT there are probably too many "Professional" components on that list.

And if it matters, the author of the story at the first link here (Bloodhorse/TruNicks) has to be a complete idiot.


He writes: "The 1991 Kentucky Derby victory of Strike the Gold – who initially had a DI of 9.00 – caused a reclassifying of Raise a Native to get his Roman Dosage under 4.0..."


Raise a Native is and has always been a Brilliant Chef-de-Race... and NOTHING about a Brilliant chef would likely contribute to getting an offspring's Dosage Index under the benchmark 4.0.

Everyone who knows anything about Dosage knows that it was in fact the very appropriate addition of Alydar as a Classic Chef-de-Race which altered Strike the Gold's Dosage Index.

The timing just sucked

You know that author posted the link in the first place right? Okay whatever. Be rude. Since this a 2yo thread that occasionally gets bumped, not sure who all's gonna read it or care, but as I just now saw it, I'll jump in here. Clearly he meant to put Alydar, not Raise a Native. That's the incident that always comes up when talking about the waning credibility of dosage. I haven't heard a serious pedigree analyst or handicapper mention dosage in years. There's just too much subjectivity and an ability to retcon. By the time a Chef de Race is declared, the industry's already run with an idea about the stallion and bred/bought accordingly. Of course that other poster is gonna continue to support dosage as it's his business. Of all the hills to die on, a defense of dosage isn't one I recommend, but go for it, I guess.

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"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"