Delta Jackpot

[Ill-bred]

I'm inclined to like Golden Yank a little here. Good post, and he has a win over the track and at two turns. Looked pretty strong in the prep race. 8-to-1 ML odds.

There's a lot of stretching-out speed in here. Could get a nice inside stalking/closing trip.

[bdw0617]

Golden Yank, boy that's a pedigree you odn't see everyday. he is stretching out and is undfeated and will have no problemg etting the distance

rather or not this is a grade 1 or not, there are grade 1 calibur horses in this field and I just dont' think golden yank is a grade 1 calibur horse yet. I'm not a big final time or beyer speed guy but some people dont' pay ENOUGH attention tot hem, and I am not putting money on a horse that rana mile and 1:40 and 2 his last race stretching out, from a non graded stakes win.


at first i liked satnt joe but after actually handicapping the race, I think that Cave's Valley is 5 lengths better than any horse in this race including Z humor. had one of the most impresive maidens at saratoga and has won 2 stakes races since at delaware in more impressive fashion than any other horse in this field has put up to date. without questoin a derby horse.

[Ill-bred]

Who's speed figures do you use bdw?

I always look at Beyers (largely because they're cheap), and I occassionally get Thorograph or the Ragozin Sheets.

Golden Yank is very competitive on T-graph, just a hair slower than Cave's Valley. Betatron's sprint win at CD is top fig. The Delta Jackpot is the free Race of the Week at www.thorograph.com although you have to register to access the data.

[larrygene]

I have not handicapped the race but from experience, it is a distinct advantage for a horse to have raced over the Delta track and at night. Have found some do not like the real sandy track and something about having never run at night makes some horses a bit timid. JMO.

Love the new Topic and very much enjoy reading everyone's handicapping posts. Great idea!!

Larrygene

[Rokeby Forever]

What is there to know? Mott!

[TJ]

Delta Downs is known as a "bull ring" because the length of the track is only 6 furlongs. It does make handicapping a challege. Add the factor it is run at night under the lights and it is even tougher. The raw times at this track will be quite a bit slower than many other tracks. Golden Yanks final time is actually a decent time. The track record for a mile at DeD is 1:37.2. By comparison to other tracks, for example, Aqueduct's main track mile record of 1:32.2 Golden Yanks mile looks like a very slow mile. But if you take the tracks variant into consideration and realize that its par times are 4-5 seconds slower than many other tracks--his race time looks a little better. That is why Thoro-Graph has Golden Yank as a contender in this spot. If the winner of the DeD Jackpot breaks 1:39 while negotiating this 1 1/16th race he is flying. TJ

[bdw0617]

Who's speed figures do you use bdw?

I always look at Beyers (largely because they're cheap), and I occassionally get Thorograph or the Ragozin Sheets.

Golden Yank is very competitive on T-graph, just a hair slower than Cave's Valley. Betatron's sprint win at CD is top fig. The Delta Jackpot is the free Race of the Week at www.thorograph.com although you have to register to access the data.

one of the first things I learned is business, the school of hard knocks way, is if you do what everyone else does you are going to get the same results that everyone else gets. meaning in horse racing, if by using beyer speed figures or any speed figures, the same horses were going to be chalk as everyone else, the same long shots were going to be long shots, etc. I was going to get what everyone else gets.

so I don't use any speed figures at all. I just watch a bunch of races, unless it's a maiden, and even then sometimes not, I will never bet on a race where I haven't seen every horse run with my own two eyes. It's one thing to see in a past performance stalked, 3W, faded, it's an entirly different thing to SEE him used up in the beginningo f the race go wide because he's tired and just fade... the late rI can tell you at low odds he isn't a real contender.

it's been good to me so far. but I watch so many races I can generally tell you outside of track varients within a couple of figures what a Beyer will be, I just don' tuse them. the only distance I have a little troulbe with is a mile and a 16th for some reason...

cave valley is Hard spun 2008. remember, speed beats cheap speed, and class beats speed...cave valley is the real deal.

larrygene has a great point, however I have not seen a race in a while this..well...varying in class. there are 4 legit grade 1 horses in this race, 4 horses that probably don't belong in graded stakes company whatsoever.



TJ, there is no instance ever, unless you are running at maybe del mar, where 1:40 and 2 is even considerable for a grade 3. if he beats me, he beats me, but you have to take stands, you can't like everyone and I am taking a stand against that time. if he shows me he can do better, good for him.. but the winner of this race par is going to be closer to 1:43

[Rokeby Forever]

By comparison to other tracks, for example, Aqueduct's main track mile record of 1:32.2 Golden Yanks mile looks like a very slow mile. But if you take the tracks variant into consideration and realize that its par times are 4-5 seconds slower than many other tracks--his race time looks a little better.

Aqueduct runs a one turn mile, and beside - how many horses as fast as Easy Goer run at Delta? LOL!

[Ill-bred]

TJ, there is no instance ever, unless you are running at maybe del mar, where 1:40 and 2 is even considerable for a grade 3. if he beats me, he beats me, but you have to take stands, you can't like everyone and I am taking a stand against that time. if he shows me he can do better, good for him.. but the winner of this race par is going to be closer to 1:43

Delta track records:

1m -- 1:37.52

1 1/16 -- 1:43.20

[bdw0617]

TJ, there is no instance ever, unless you are running at maybe del mar, where 1:40 and 2 is even considerable for a grade 3. if he beats me, he beats me, but you have to take stands, you can't like everyone and I am taking a stand against that time. if he shows me he can do better, good for him.. but the winner of this race par is going to be closer to 1:43

Delta track records:

1m -- 1:37.52

1 1/16 -- 1:43.20

so I'm a little off, but in all seriousness....they don't have the breeders cup at delta downs.. that track record came from an older allowence hrose who couldn't hack it up north. the track record at delta downs is not the track record at say, Gulfstream.

this is a legit grade 3 racde and yiou could make a damn good arguement for grade 2 with the field, some of them were real contenders in the breeders cup. if he wins I'm wrong.. but again.. stands. i'm taking one. if you like him bet him.

[larrygene]

BDW, so there is no mistaking you, you are picking Cave's Valley to win?? Right? I am asking not to be argumentitive but am very serious and enjoy your insights into handicapping. Believe it or not I have been more inclined to pedigrees than speed numbers. I believe short speed is always cheap but going a route is greatly influenced by class, i.e., did the mama and daddy do it?

Thanks,
Larrygene

[TJ]

Who's speed figures do you use bdw?

I always look at Beyers (largely because they're cheap), and I occassionally get Thorograph or the Ragozin Sheets.

Golden Yank is very competitive on T-graph, just a hair slower than Cave's Valley. Betatron's sprint win at CD is top fig. The Delta Jackpot is the free Race of the Week at www.thorograph.com although you have to register to access the data.

one of the first things I learned is business, the school of hard knocks way, is if you do what everyone else does you are going to get the same results that everyone else gets. meaning in horse racing, if by using beyer speed figures or any speed figures, the same horses were going to be chalk as everyone else, the same long shots were going to be long shots, etc. I was going to get what everyone else gets.

so I don't use any speed figures at all. I just watch a bunch of races, unless it's a maiden, and even then sometimes not, I will never bet on a race where I haven't seen every horse run with my own two eyes. It's one thing to see in a past performance stalked, 3W, faded, it's an entirly different thing to SEE him used up in the beginningo f the race go wide because he's tired and just fade... the late rI can tell you at low odds he isn't a real contender.

it's been good to me so far. but I watch so many races I can generally tell you outside of track varients within a couple of figures what a Beyer will be, I just don' tuse them. the only distance I have a little troulbe with is a mile and a 16th for some reason...

cave valley is Hard spun 2008. remember, speed beats cheap speed, and class beats speed...cave valley is the real deal.

larrygene has a great point, however I have not seen a race in a while this..well...varying in class. there are 4 legit grade 1 horses in this race, 4 horses that probably don't belong in graded stakes company whatsoever.



TJ, there is no instance ever, unless you are running at maybe del mar, where 1:40 and 2 is even considerable for a grade 3. if he beats me, he beats me, but you have to take stands, you can't like everyone and I am taking a stand against that time. if he shows me he can do better, good for him.. but the winner of this race par is going to be closer to 1:43

Hi Bdw,
In describing the time I meant to say if they run the mile in 1:39 as they negotiate the 1 1/16th distance of the race in the Delta Jackpot, they would be flying. The point I was trying to make is that a mile in 1:40 is nothing to laugh at over that track. Hence the reason why that horse's figure was close to your choice on the TG sheets. Thoro-graph takes the par times into consideration when they come up with their numbers. It will be interesting to see where he finishes. Good luck with your horse--I think Cave's Valley earns a million dollar bonus if he wins that race too. TJ

[Bill from WA]

Hi

From a pedigree perspective I too like Golden Yank, with Cave's Valley, Overextended and Z Humor close.

Bill

[bdw0617]

larrygene,

I think the horse is going to win. however just becauses I think a horse is going to win doesn't mean it's a sound bet. at 7/2 IMHO it's a sound bet, anythihng less I am passing the race from a betting opprotunity. there are too many races that go on on a daily basis to hone into one if you aren't getting value. pick your spots your time iwll come


Bill from WA,


races are not ran on the track, they are ran in the stallion barn and the kentucky sales


Respectully,

Storm Cat

[larrygene]

BDW, I understand your response to my question but where did the response from Bill come from??? What has Storm Cat got to do with this race?? If we get 7/2 on CV then I'm going to put a little on him. I have a problem with his bottom side. Kinda weak.