Postby Bill from WA » Mon Feb 04, 2008 9:42 am
Hi bdw
Etched is obviously a very nice horse and I believe he will continue to be quite successful. What I am trying to do with these numbers is predict (based on my research of the female families) which horses have the greatest probability of competing successfully at the Derby distance. This race is asking for them to do something that none of them have ever tried before…to run against other horses at 10 furlongs. The question that I am trying to answer is, which individuals have the best pedigrees (IMO) for the distance? That’s all I’m trying to figure out. My research tells me Etched will be best suited to compete at 8 to 9 furlongs. I think that if he were to run in the Derby, he would be in contention for most of the race, but would hit the wall in the final 1/16th of a mile, while horses like, Anak Nakal, Check It Twice, Nownownow (if he goes) and even Maimonedes will be hitting their best stride. Of course, all of this is pure speculation at this point, because many of these horses won’t even make it to the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. I have to stress that these numbers do NOT reflect racing talent, but only the stamina contributions (based on years of research) in the pedigrees of each of the individuals. I like Anak Nakal (at this point) because I believe he has the racing style, connections, and pedigree to compete successfully at the 10 furlong distance.
I may be eating a healthy serving of crow after the race, but as of now, this is how I see things developing.
Respectfully,
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes