DDT wrote:bdw
Well, what I was getting at was your earlier statements in this thread that you would not bet a race without seeing the horses first, of course you did not say what you were looking for and if you saw something amiss what YOU would do. Now you say if you liked the horse that was acting up but was 14-1 what would "I" do. Do you see why I'm confused?
So, while we are at it, you say that handicapping books are useless, but in this thread you referred to Quinn as being great, his book being the best handicapping book you ever read, more confusion?
You said what you bet is your business, it was not $5 or $10 bets, but then you said some of your best profits came from $2.00 bets, more confusion?
You said you do not use past performances to handicap races, but you look at 120-130 races on any given Friday, and by that I assume you mean look at the entries, so how do you handicap any given race without past performance data? You must keep a lot of notes. How do you know when a horse has last raced if you don't look at past performances, entries do not list this information. More confusion?
With all of your double talk you sound like a lawyer not a professional handicapper, but then you have done everything else in your young life it would not surprise me to find out that you also have done a little lawyering too.
DDT
okay i see what you mean.
everyone has strong points and weak points. part of making money is knowing where your bread and butter lies. 90% of the time I stick with claiming and allowence races. it's my bred and butter. I don't bet on maiden races and I try not to bet stake action, for the reason that I enjoy watching them run and USUALLY (unless there is real opprotunity) betting gets in the way of that.
what i meant by not making a bet until I i saw a horse run is basically i like to just know everything that i can going into a race. what i mean by it is, if i am going into a 10k claiming race I feel security in knowing what every horse in the race is going to do.
DDT, what i am really getting at and stick with me if you can.. and I think everyone will agree.. you know what the last law in the 48 laws of power is? Assuming formlessness. don't' be so stuck in your ways that you miss an opprotunity. each race is it's on entity. i'm doing the best I can to describe what I do but I can't because no two races are exactly the same.f i mean yes I Ihave a pattern of what I do which consists of watching hte replays usually 2 days before (today I handicapped for friday), going over any questions i have the next day and coming up with a betting game plan on how I'm goinig to attack the race and under what circumstances, when the rest starts I tune into HRTV or TVG or xpressbet 15 mintues before the race to watch the horses load up.. usually xpressbet because the TV shows dont' do a good job of showing the paddock. if i am at the track I go to the paddock. if everything adds up and I see nothing that would throw me off I go forward.
what i mean by assume formlessness... there is a certain level where a horse is poriftalbe no matter the odds and part of being a handicapper is to understand that well.. i'm going to loose 60% of my races. with that said.. say I see a horse that is morning line 6 to 1 and I have him dotted as a serious contender worthy of my money.. and he's going off at 15 to 1 because there is another horse that is getting ALL the money. let's say he's a class dropper from 2 classes that came in 2nd last race.
i go to the paddock and see he's a little antsy and acting out a little. i normally don't like that.. but at 15 to 1, if I had him penciled in as a contender, 15 to one on a horse that I would bet at 4 to 1 if I had the chance if he was right is worth the shot, at least in my eyes. I"m not so stuck on my ways that I'm not open minded
I didn't say handicapping books are uselss.. if I did that was a bad choice of words. let me put it this way, lyou are not going to do this for a living reading handicapping books. you will learn sure.. I read Quinn's book when I was in highschool.. that was almost a decade ago, before I went to the track everyday. when I didn't know what a trip was or how beyers were forumlated.
it's no different than trading stocks, which I also do. you can read all the stock excahge books you want but you aren't going to make any money and know eveyrthing you can until you get on the floor or open an etrade account and put your own money at risk.
Quinn's book is good because it is an excellent reference for learing how to manage money. My betting strategy is not some pie in the sky forumla, it's taken directly from his book and i altered a tad.
yes.. i've been going to the track for 15 years now DDT.... i didn't just start betting before I decided to do it for a living. i hit a copule as a child that were pretty nice betting though my dad off of basic handicapping skills. I also play pick 3's alot and alot of my pick 3's are 2-4 dollar bets. As a profit margin yes that is correct
LMAO, you ovbiusly do not have a race replays account. I can tell you evetything you want to know in racereplays about the horse. I don't sit at home and watch TIVO. I don't even know why people make such a big deal.. the only difference between race replays is no beyer number and I mean my gosh it's not the hardest number on earth to come up with if i had to.. i just don't use it.
how do you think when winds asked me about her last filly I knew evertyhing about the race? I can tell you the date fo the race and the time the race went off from my racereplays account. i can go back and look at races father back than you can in the DRF, I can go back to 2000. I can go back and look at EVERY one of Lava man's, the tin man and others races.
i'm not even going to expand on that anymore because you made a horrible assumption
what I don't get is what in the world have I done to you? I meet people up here at hte track all the time yet i'm lying to you. lol.
again.. I will be happy to offer advice but i have no need to defend myself.