my thoughts on the preakness

[ireneinwa]

When the opening fraction came up and RA was running easy with her ears pricked, not caring that it was a big colt beside her not just a filly, I told the people I was with that the race was over.

Calvin made a misjudgemnt on her on the turn. She was running easy, on the lead, and he asked her to open up. It reminded me of Desormeux's ride on Real Quiet in the Belmont. He asked her a sixteenth too early. If he waits until she is into the stretch before he asks her, she isn't tiring at the wire and it doesn't 'look' like MTB will catch her at a longer distance. Mike Smith timed his ride better than Calvin Borel is how I saw the finish. It is a game of 'what ifs' however, and the bottom line is RA won, MTB didn't quite get there, and the finish makes us curious about what could happen in the Belmont if they both show up.

NO WAY THAT FILLY CANM GO A 1 1/2

What could happen if they both show at the Belmont ...RA wouldnt have a chance. I wish they wouldn't have entered her or MTB didn't have trouble in traffic...We'd have a triple crown winner this year

Ahh not so sure although it would seem like it watching the Preakness. If Calvin could get her to relax unlike the Preakness Mike Smith on MTB will think he'll be able to catch her this time and will be content to ride him the same way he did in the Preakness and she'll just squirt away at the top of the stretch. Of course Charitable Man just may take it instead of either one.

NO WAY THAT FILLY CAN GO A 1 1/2 MTB WILL PASS HER AS IF SHE'S STANDING STILL. SHE WOULDN'T EVEN HIT THE BOARD SORRY

[Matchemforever]

Steward said, partially quoted here, and others who have noted that RA is not quite the super filly:

I have an odd reaction. I don't think that I'm alone......

I was expecting a convincing, open-length victory by RA, and the exposure of a flawed, previously lucky gelding. Instead I got the feel that the race was won by a horse vulnerable to more ground, and possibly something more to prove......

If RA is really a superfilly, then she should run with the boys, as often as the boys, and on the same track conditions as the boys. Don't get me wrong, I like her, a lot. But she's not the next superhorse.

I don't like all the promotions about getting her chance to prove her class, especially if she does not go in the Belmont. She'll just have eeked out a win, although in a great race with great effort, but she didn't blow anyone away. That kind of talk will ring really hollow if she does not follow up in the Belmont and instead is rested and her spots picked.

I don't want to see her hurt or injured but no more talk about how much better she is than the boys if she does not run like the boys. Was she the better horse yesterday? Yes, I guess so. She ran a hard race. But the Triple Crown is all about the stamina and class to get through those three races in the time frame they are held.

IMHO, the horse that would best have fit the standard those three races show was Mine That Bird.

RA has to run in the Belmont- if she does not or gets beaten, and I'm in the camp that says she has a limit on how far she can run, then this whole build up about a super filly and being better than the colts is just so much talk. Same conditions, same races, same time frame.

[bdw0617]

i have changed my stance on the belmont.

we can't be sexist now.


IF, keyword, IF she is fine and can give a great effort, a winnig effort, she shoiuld run. if she can't, she shouldn't.


you should never not race in a big race beucase you are afraid you might lose. just like you should never not stand up for yourself beucase you are scared the other ugy might hit you. I was raised better than that.. sometiems you get beat.

look at the old days. the old days were not great becuase we had great horses (they did), or becuase horses were sounder, or becuase there was no breeders cup, or becuase we had better trainers and no drugs (there were drugs), but becuase OWNERS AND CONNECTIONS WERE NOT AFRIAD TO RUN AGAINST EACH OTHER.

that is what makes horse racing great. not just a filly beating the boys, the best running against the best and not ducking and jiving.

I think Jess undersatnds that and will od what's ultimate righty by the filly


he goes and wins, great. he goes and loses, oh well. whoever beat him was better that day.


i'm not so sure she doesn't win. pace is usually slower and lone speed is leathal at belmont in a race that long. see da'tara.
even if she does lose. so what? it's not like there is another 12F race out there.

that's the beauty of it all. that's how rivararies are made.

[karenkarenn]

So TVG that MTB WILL be running in the Belmont

[jagger]

Possibly, your best post...ever, Mark.

[Joltman]

I think RA would be every bit as competitive in the Belmont as she was in the Preakness. I think it should be noted that Calvin's immediate statement was that she wasn't handling the track at all. It showed, as it always does, in deep stretch.

Three things -

1. The triple crown races are unique. The horses are STILL DEVELOPING. That's part of the attraction of it all. Some continue to improve and even become monsters. Others tail off. If RA went top in the Belmont (and a rabbit wasn't entered) I don't see anyone engaging her until the top of the stretch, and at that I would really like her chances.

on the other hand

2. MTB will probably not have a huge field to weave his way through. I say there is a one in 3 chance that we could see a classic, stretch long duel long Alydar/Alysheba.

All of these horses have down days - even Secretariat after the unbelievable Belmont. RA could lose to 3yo fillies. Both of these horses are due for a down day (big Brown?) and it is no disgrace to 'not show up' after a grueling Triple Crown.

That's why winning big in the Triple Crown AND the Breeders Cup is so special.

jm

[Aug27]

my thoughts:

1) RA: great horse, average rider.

2) MTB: proved that he's the best colt at 9.5f+ ... same relative advatnage over MM as in the Derby, regardless of the rider. (Just imagine what he could do with a great jockey.)

3) Synthetic horses were exposed.

4) Lukas wasn't blowing smoke when he said FP wouldn't be an embarrassment; just need a fair fast track.

5) RA and MTB better hope the real Dunkirk doesn't show up at Belmont ...

[steward]

I was one of the vocal posters who warned Mr. Jackson not to run Curlin in last year's Breeders' Cup. He was putting his horse on a surface for which he had no business on, and it was obvious that only something negative would happen. Well, we saw how that all turned out. To me, it wasn't a big deal because I have the status of an observer rather than a participant, and train wrecks are always interesting to the detached.

Maybe Mr. Jackson learned something from it. Probably so. But the issue isn't his intellect, it's his ego. Besides the clock ticking via his health problems, he sees himself on a mission or jihad as the savior of horse racing. That invariably leads to an unwise decision. His ego will trump his good sense when it comes to the ponies. I fully expect to see something dumb occur.

Now, MTB. It's quite possible that they are stewing about what might have been, and will be tempted by the close call to double down at the Belmont. So be it. It might turn out well. But even if it does, what was gained? The purse is nice, but not nearly in the league of the races for which this horse should be truly aimed at. And should he win a BC or Dubai in his career, won't a second leg of an unfulfilled and maddening TC seem like small spuds? I don't quite see the point in putting their little guy in any jeopardy in 3 weeks, given that he is a gelding and should have his career being planned for the long term. But, again, a less-than-wise decision is more likely than not.

[Vicbrenan]

I loved her, she was firebreathing before the race... I thought she did extrordinary pushing an early lead from the outside position, and holding it...

Im also a huge MTB fan and if that race was a fraction of a second longer he would have had her... Or if he had gotten through the pack quicker...

Both horses rocked it, I think!

[DDT]

steward

If the Preakness left you less than happy then maybe you should find another sport to occupy your time. One other thing before I move on, Seattle Slew suffered his first loss after the Triple Crown races and after flying out to California, his trainer knew it was wrong and lost his job over it, owners sometimes do things that are wrong and not in the best interest of the horse, fans such as you can't wait to second guess their moves.

The hype over the outcome of the Preakness is still going on, most news channels are still running stories about it this morning, so it has not gone unnoticed by them and consequently the general public.

The trainer and owners of Mine That Bird have said all along that the Belmont was their ultimate goal with the horse, and I think they have earned the right to decide what they are going to do without any gripes from you or any other fan who thinks it is too much to ask of the horse just because there is no Triple Crown at stake, how about the 3 year old Championship? How about Horse of the Year? Fans liike you are never satisfied, if they don't like the race they complain, if they don't like the TV coverage they complain. How many Classic winners have you trained? How many Classic winners have you owned?

As a fan you should be happy that the sport is getting a lot of mileage out of this one race. You should be happy that they all came back safe, no national exposure breakdowns.

Most of the Derby and Preakness starters have decided not to go on to the Belmont. The field will probably be 10 or less. Why should Mine That Bird be kept out of a race he will more than likely be favored to win? Because you think there is nothing to gain, please.

My only concern is that the press hungry Jackson will let the pressure to run Rachel Alexandra get the best of him and he does not listen to his trainer. If the trainer says she is ready to go, then she should run also, it will be good for racing, and as a fan, you should be happy about that.

DDT

[pfrsue]

I agree with DDT. And, to be honest, the Curlin complaints are getting a little old. Finishing 4th in the Breeders Cup Classic is not exactly a train wreck. From your inference, steward, you make it sound like the poor horse broke all four legs, bled, caught a quarter, contracted strangles and ruined the national economy. Curlin never disgraced himself on any surface, even if he didn't always win. Jackson was sportsman enough to give the horse opportunities. Please give it a rest.

[oliverstoned]

MTB will never get a chance again to race in a Grade One 1 1/2 mile race. It could be his favorite distance and its a Classic to boot! The million dollar purse ain't chump change either. Just because he's gelding does not mean he can race at this level for many years (see Funny Cide). He has only raced 4 times this year...yeesh.

[Aug27]

Here are the stakes worth $600K and up, for the remainder of the year:

May 25, Belmont Park: Shadwell Metropolitan H (gr. I), $600,000g, 3&up, 8f.
Jun. 6, Belmont Park: Belmont S (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3yo, 12f.
Jun. 13, Churchill Downs: Stephen Foster H (gr. I), $600,000a, 3&up, 9f.
Jun. 21, Woodbine: Queen's Plate S (R), $1,000,000g, 3yo, Canadian-bred, 10f.
Jul. 4, Monmouth Park: United Nations S (gr. IT), $750,000g, 3&up, 11f (turf).
Jul. 5, Hollywood Park: American Oaks Invitational (gr. IT), $700,000g, 3yo f, 10f (turf).
Jul. 11, Hollywood Park: Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), $700,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Jul. 18, Colonial Downs: Virginia Derby (gr. IIT), $750,000g, 3yo, 10f (turf).
Jul. 19, Delaware Park: Delaware H (gr. II), $1,000,000g, 3&up, f/m, 10f.
Aug. 1, Mountaineer Casino Racetrack & Resort: West Virginia Derby (gr. II), $750,000g, 3yo, 9f.
Aug. 2, Monmouth Park: Haskell Invitational (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3yo, 9f.
Aug. 8, Arlington Park: Arlington Million XXVII (gr. IT), $1,000,000g, 3&up, 10f (turf).
Aug. 8, Beverly D. (gr. IT), $750,000g, 3&up, f/m, 9.5f (turf).
Aug. 8, Saratoga: Whitney H (gr. I), $750,000g, 3&up, 9f.
Aug. 22, Saratoga: Alabama S (gr. I), $600,000g, 3yo f, 10f.
Aug. 29, Saratoga: Shadwell Travers S (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3yo, 10f.
Sep. 6, Del Mar: Pacific Classic (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Sep. 7, Philadelphia Park: Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II), $1,000,000g, 3yo, 9f.
Sep. 19, Louisiana Downs: Super Derby (gr. II), $750,000g, 3yo, 9f.
Sep. 20, Woodbine: Woodbine Mile (Can-I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, 8f (turf).
Sep. 20, Northern Dancer Breeders' Cup Turf (Can-I), $650,000g, $100,000 Breeders' Cup Fund, 3&up, 12f (turf).
Oct. 3, Belmont Park: The Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational (gr. I), $750,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Oct. 3, Beldame (gr. I), $600,000g, 3&up, f/m, 9f.
Oct. 3, Flower Bowl Invitational (gr. IT), $600,000g, 3&up, f/m, 10f (turf).
Oct. 3, Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (gr. IT), $600,000g, 3&up, 12f (turf).
Oct. 3, Philadelphia Park: Fitz Dixon Cotillion S (gr. II), $750,000g, 3yo f, 8.5f.
Oct. 17, Woodbine: Pattison Canadian International (Can-I), $2,000,000g, 3&up, 12f (turf).
Oct. 17, E.P. Taylor S (Can-I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, f/m, 10f (turf).
Nov. 6, Santa Anita: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. IT), $2,000,000g, 3&up, f/m, 10f (turf).
Nov. 6, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 2yo f, 8.5f.
Nov. 6, Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 3&up, f/m, 9f.
Nov. 6, Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, f/m, 7f.
Nov. 6, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, $1,000,000g, 2yo f, 8f (turf).
Nov. 7, Santa Anita: Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), $5,000,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. IT), $3,000,000g, 3&up, 12f (turf).
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 2yo, c/g, 8.5f.
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. IT), $2,000,000g, 3&up, 8f (turf).
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), $2,000,000g, 3&up, 6f.
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I), $1,000,000g, 3&up, 8f.
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IIT), $1,000,000g, 2yo, 8f (turf).
Nov. 7, Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, $1,000,000g, 3&up, 6.5f (turf).
Dec. 19, Hollywood Park: CashCall Futurity (gr. I), $750,000g, 2yo, 8.5f.

==================

Hard to find a larger purse than the Belmont, from here to the Breeders' Cup (on dirt, anyway ...)

[jellac]

Aug27 -

I have one question - how did you come up with that list of remaining stakes of at/above a given value for the remainder of 2009?

Is it possible to quickly sort for those at or beyond a given distance?

OR for those beyond a given distance AND on the turf?

IF this is a program or service that you subscribe to I'd sure like to know which one it is - if you sat down and did the sorting/shifting thru data yourself, all I can say is 'Thanks!'

[Aug27]

I just pulled them out of Bloodhorse ("stakes calendar") and sorted them in Excel ...