Santa Anita Derby

[zinn21]

Any thoughts? I think Lookin at Lucky is a very classy horse but Sydney's Candy IMO is equally as good. From a pace standpoint I don't think anyone can or will go with Sydney's Candy early. I think he will win by many with L@L second. I don't have a real feel for L@L in this race. He shipped to OP ran a tough race for his comeback and I don't think it is life and death for Baffert to have him full tilt for this. A good performance is all he would be looking for going forward.

The horse with the biggest improvement upside, IMO, is Setsuko. He's sort of been a slow developer but looks like he has trained brilliantly since his last start. Perhaps the light bulb has finally turned on..

I will bet win on SC if odds make sense and exactas with SC on top to L@L and Setsuko with a minor box going the other way to save.

[Aug27]

Sound reasoning, zinn!
I think Baffert doesn't really care about winning this one and this is the race to bet against L@L in the Win spot. I take a slightly different overall tack than you: I think Setsuko makes more sense than Sydney, for the reasons you've given ,plus I just prefer closers to front runners on synthetics. So, I'm thinking Setsuko over L@L.

[bdw0617]

Any thoughts? I think Lookin at Lucky is a very classy horse but Sydney's Candy IMO is equally as good. From a pace standpoint I don't think anyone can or will go with Sydney's Candy early. I think he will win by many with L@L second. I don't have a real feel for L@L in this race. He shipped to OP ran a tough race for his comeback and I don't think it is life and death for Baffert to have him full tilt for this. A good performance is all he would be looking for going forward.

The horse with the biggest improvement upside, IMO, is Setsuko. He's sort of been a slow developer but looks like he has trained brilliantly since his last start. Perhaps the light bulb has finally turned on..

I will bet win on SC if odds make sense and exactas with SC on top to L@L and Setsuko with a minor box going the other way to save.

while I respect your opinion, I have to disagree.

the worst angle ever in betting is the late running closer that "needs more room". if he can't catch a horse going a mile he is not going to catch a horse going an extra furlong with slower internal fractions. his run will level out.



wait until the post parade, if caracatado looks fit, run to the window. he's the best horse in the race just was not ready last out, came back too quick

[zinn21]

BDW wrote:

the worst angle ever in betting is the late running closer that "needs more room". if he can't catch a horse going a mile he is not going to catch a horse going an extra furlong with slower internal fractions. his run will level out.



wait until the post parade, if caracatado looks fit, run to the window. he's the best horse in the race just was not ready last out, came back too quick

Can't disagree fundamentally with first paragraph. But I think he is a horse who mentally did not get it and his natural talent allowed him to be competitive enough. It looks like the last race woke him up mentally. He has trained sharply since. I heard Gary Mandella on HRTV the other day discussing previously mentioned. We shall see.

Regarding Caracortado, I think he peaked ability wise the race prior to his last where he won. He did not move forward after that win while many of his buddies did and will. He is modestly bred and IMO a slightly better than average physical specimen. If he was an adonis I would consider more upside but he is not. No doubt he is a smart horse who is very competitive but looks no better than 4th to me in the Derby. Again we shall see. Appreciate your analysis..

[bdw0617]

BDW wrote:

the worst angle ever in betting is the late running closer that "needs more room". if he can't catch a horse going a mile he is not going to catch a horse going an extra furlong with slower internal fractions. his run will level out.



wait until the post parade, if caracatado looks fit, run to the window. he's the best horse in the race just was not ready last out, came back too quick

Can't disagree fundamentally with first paragraph. But I think he is a horse who mentally did not get it and his natural talent allowed him to be competitive enough. It looks like the last race woke him up mentally. He has trained sharply since. I heard Gary Mandella on HRTV the other day discussing previously mentioned. We shall see.

Regarding Caracortado, I think he peaked ability wise the race prior to his last where he won. He did not move forward after that win while many of his buddies did and will. He is modestly bred and IMO a slightly better than average physical specimen. If he was an adonis I would consider more upside but he is not. No doubt he is a smart horse who is very competitive but looks no better than 4th to me in the Derby. Again we shall see. Appreciate your analysis..

scarface ran the fastest 8.5 race at santa anita this year. he's legit

if you saw him in the post parade last race you would have tossed him. too many races in too short a time frame, and should not have been rnning. it's like he was running becuase the race was there.

if he's fresh and looks a little better i'm ALL over him like D wayne is on a camera

[zinn21]

BDW wrote:

if he's fresh and looks a little better i'm ALL over him like D wayne is on a camera
_________________
“We also often add to our pain and suffering by being overly sensitive, over-reacting to minor things, and sometimes taking things too personally.”

Yeah I remember him in post. He had the winter clipping so looked two tone. Can't remember how sharp he looked otherwise. I will take a good look at him today. Watching HRTV this morning and they interviewed Mike Puhich and it sounds like they might send Who's Up. He is coming off a layoff and an injury they used a state of the art protocol to get him back in short order. If he goes that might compromise Sydney's Candy. I will stick with SC nonetheless..

Should be a great race. GLTU..

[zinn21]

L@L and Sydney's Candy both looked awesome in post. Carcortado looked about the same as he did last race. I am going to bet an exacta box L@L and SC..

[zinn21]

L@L with a horrific trip. SC did just what I thought he would do. He is the real deal.

[wgc517]

Wow, a tough Race for Lucky. It is all about the ride though. Maybe a lesson learned for when he gets to the Derby. With a larger field it will only become more difficult to get a clean ride. He did have a nice kick when he got free.

[zinn21]

Baffert was fuming after the race. He said he was going to have to think about riding Gomez in the Derby. I thought he got sawed off but I haven't taken a look at the head on.

Damn, I got hung up on an SC/L@L box and just saved with a small box on the top two. In retrospect I should have taken the 7-2 on SC. I thought he would win by many and he did.

[bdw0617]

Any thoughts? I think Lookin at Lucky is a very classy horse but Sydney's Candy IMO is equally as good. From a pace standpoint I don't think anyone can or will go with Sydney's Candy early. I think he will win by many with L@L second. I don't have a real feel for L@L in this race. He shipped to OP ran a tough race for his comeback and I don't think it is life and death for Baffert to have him full tilt for this. A good performance is all he would be looking for going forward.

The horse with the biggest improvement upside, IMO, is Setsuko. He's sort of been a slow developer but looks like he has trained brilliantly since his last start. Perhaps the light bulb has finally turned on..

I will bet win on SC if odds make sense and exactas with SC on top to L@L and Setsuko with a minor box going the other way to save.

good pikin!

[bdw0617]

lookin at lucky has always been somewhat slow. slow horses cause their own trouble.

he has just up until now, been able to race against slower horses.

no getting around the cream of the crop now.

he's a solid 92-98 beyer horse.

[Aug27]

When I saw Sydney was the lone speed, I bet him on top of L@L and Setsuko in the triple, and played Setsuko to W&P.
Ca-ching => I made a Profit on the race.

I seriously doubt Sydney will finish ahead of either of those two in the KD, though. Should be completely different pace and race flow dynamics, asssuming a 20 horse field with multiple confirmed front-runners... we'll just have to wait and see!

The Ashland went to a front-runner, too.

[zinn21]

Aug27 wrote:

I seriously doubt Sydney will finish ahead of either of those two in the KD, though. Should be completely different pace and race flow dynamics, asssuming a 20 horse field with multiple confirmed front-runners... we'll just have to wait and see!

First off nice money management.. I only made a few bucks as I had SC on top and minor boxed the top three finishers. I was looking for 5-1 and failed to bet him to win. In retrospect 7-2 was a reasonable return but I tend to want bigger odds for a heavy straight win bet.

Secondly your analysis of Sydney's pace problems for the Derby is a very valid one. He is now recognized lone speed and he would have to be on a class level of a Spend a Buck or a Seattle Slew to take them gate to wire. There is generally always an outsider or two who will send regardless of their running style-sort of their claim to fame-being on the lead in the Derby, so a free front runner must be a stone cold class horse to get it done.. That said I still haven't decided how good SC is. I know he impressed the hell out of me when he won last summer at Del Mar and his comebacker @ SA this winter. I even posted to that effect. I'm going to go back and take a good look at all his races. Sydney has yet to run on dirt so that is another question mark. Really when you think about it, good enough or not there are too many question marks to heavily bet Sydney in the Derby. He will be second choice and there will be no value betting he is good enough to take them wire to wire on a dirt track.. I may end up deciding he is the best horse but not bet him due to lack of value. We'll see..

Eskenderaya is no question the prohibitive favorite and might finally get it done for Pletcher. L@L is a very good horse with two rough comeback races under his belt. He may be good enough with a trip to beat any of them and likely will be the value bet on Derby day.

[bdw0617]

i am not going to be beating down the door to bet a son of candy ride (who ran a grade mile in 1:31 and change in south america) out of a storm cat mare (storm cat's do take to the turf) first time on dirt. he could very well be spinning wheles