$30,000 Stallions
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SilverGhost
- Suckling
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- Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:49 pm
$30,000 Stallions
Any thoughts on stallions in the 30-40k stud fee range? This web site thinks there are only 3 good values: www.thoroughbredreview.com
hi SilverGhost
With all respect to the website you reference...I suggest that their choice of words is (arguably) inconsistent...and therefore could be construed as misleading.
For example...consider this...they write "In our search for value in the $30,000-$40,000 markets, we felt that only three sires merited recognition."
Then they go on to say "At all price levels, we'll identify which stallions offer mare owners the best and worst values for 2005."
If you notice...in the first quote they use the word SIRES...in the second quote they use the word STALLIONS.
If STALLIONS of value is the criteria...I would suggest that Sky Mesa at $30,000 is good value and (arguably) merits recognition.
If SIRES of value is the criteria...I could not include Sky Mesa as he is not a sire of race horses yet...although he is certainly a stallion.
Respectfully
With all respect to the website you reference...I suggest that their choice of words is (arguably) inconsistent...and therefore could be construed as misleading.
For example...consider this...they write "In our search for value in the $30,000-$40,000 markets, we felt that only three sires merited recognition."
Then they go on to say "At all price levels, we'll identify which stallions offer mare owners the best and worst values for 2005."
If you notice...in the first quote they use the word SIRES...in the second quote they use the word STALLIONS.
If STALLIONS of value is the criteria...I would suggest that Sky Mesa at $30,000 is good value and (arguably) merits recognition.
If SIRES of value is the criteria...I could not include Sky Mesa as he is not a sire of race horses yet...although he is certainly a stallion.
Respectfully
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SilverGhost
- Suckling
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- Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:49 pm
hi SilverGhost
A stallion and a sire are sometimes not one in the same. Consider this...a sire is also a stallion...whereas a stallion is not necessarily a sire.
Smart Strike (for example) is a stallion and a sire...Speightstown (for example) is a stallion and not yet a sire.
I have not read the website you reference (or definitions that may be offered)...but at a quick glance it appears there may be certain inconsistencies...one being that on the one hand the word "stallion" is used in the criteria...on the other hand the word "sire" is used.
That inconsistency (as one example only) may cause some confusion and as a result may possibly be misleading. I expect it is not intentional...but regardless it can be misleading.
Consider this...there are a number of STALLIONS that are arguably very good value (and possibly "best values" in the opinions of some) in the $30,000 to $40,000 range...examples: Sky Mesa (at $30,000), Medaglia D'Oro ($35,000), Speightstown (at $40,000)...but they are stallions...NOT sires (yet).
Respectfully
A stallion and a sire are sometimes not one in the same. Consider this...a sire is also a stallion...whereas a stallion is not necessarily a sire.
Smart Strike (for example) is a stallion and a sire...Speightstown (for example) is a stallion and not yet a sire.
I have not read the website you reference (or definitions that may be offered)...but at a quick glance it appears there may be certain inconsistencies...one being that on the one hand the word "stallion" is used in the criteria...on the other hand the word "sire" is used.
That inconsistency (as one example only) may cause some confusion and as a result may possibly be misleading. I expect it is not intentional...but regardless it can be misleading.
Consider this...there are a number of STALLIONS that are arguably very good value (and possibly "best values" in the opinions of some) in the $30,000 to $40,000 range...examples: Sky Mesa (at $30,000), Medaglia D'Oro ($35,000), Speightstown (at $40,000)...but they are stallions...NOT sires (yet).
Respectfully
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
Northern Afleet
In the 30k range. I love Smoke Glacken, Montbrook, Distorted Humor, and Mr. Greely but why breed to any of these when you can breed to Northern Afleet for 12,500. Get on this train, It has already left the station and this stud fee is way to cheap. Only one way to go==== look at Elusive Quality. Northern Afleet is the next Elusive Quality, IMHO!
best regards Brendan
hi bcassidy
Northern Afleet is certainly VERY good value at $12,500...but to suggest that he is the next Elusive Quality may be a-bit-of-a-stretch.
He has certainly attracted attention with his VERY good son Afleet Alex (and a number of other stakes winners)...but to compare Northern Afleet to another young sire (Elusive Quality) that has sired a Hwt G1 winning 2-yo colt in France (Elusive City)...a dual North American classic-winner (Smarty Jones)...arguably one of the fastest two-year-olds (6f SW in 1:07 3/5) in North American racing history, G3 winner Omega Code...a number of other graded stakes-winners...etc...seems to be unjustified (at least right now).
Ultimately...you may be right (anything's possible) but I have my doubts that Northern Afleet will be the next Elusive Quality.
Switching gears...can you get to Distorted Humor for $30k LF ?
Best to you...always.
Respectfully
Northern Afleet is certainly VERY good value at $12,500...but to suggest that he is the next Elusive Quality may be a-bit-of-a-stretch.
He has certainly attracted attention with his VERY good son Afleet Alex (and a number of other stakes winners)...but to compare Northern Afleet to another young sire (Elusive Quality) that has sired a Hwt G1 winning 2-yo colt in France (Elusive City)...a dual North American classic-winner (Smarty Jones)...arguably one of the fastest two-year-olds (6f SW in 1:07 3/5) in North American racing history, G3 winner Omega Code...a number of other graded stakes-winners...etc...seems to be unjustified (at least right now).
Ultimately...you may be right (anything's possible) but I have my doubts that Northern Afleet will be the next Elusive Quality.
Switching gears...can you get to Distorted Humor for $30k LF ?
Best to you...always.
Respectfully
Hi BCassidy,
I don't share your optimism for NA's future success. He may be good value at 12,500. I thought so a month ago. I had a season in Jan and then didn't have one in Feb. I think that I got dumped.
But I was disappointed with Afeet Alex's showing in the Rebel? Does anyone remeber Vicar's 3 year old year? I hope that "Alex" isn't on the same path. I have a hunch that breathing may compromise his career.
Additionally, I was surprised at the relative lack of enthusiasm for his 2 year olds at OBS. They probably were from average or below average mares, but I would have thought 1 or 2 would have stood out.
Just my opinions!
I don't share your optimism for NA's future success. He may be good value at 12,500. I thought so a month ago. I had a season in Jan and then didn't have one in Feb. I think that I got dumped.
But I was disappointed with Afeet Alex's showing in the Rebel? Does anyone remeber Vicar's 3 year old year? I hope that "Alex" isn't on the same path. I have a hunch that breathing may compromise his career.
Additionally, I was surprised at the relative lack of enthusiasm for his 2 year olds at OBS. They probably were from average or below average mares, but I would have thought 1 or 2 would have stood out.
Just my opinions!
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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FOS--I know why you would feel that way about NA, but I use a privately devised system which analyzes all the running offspring of a particular stallion and not just a few of his more successful runners. The numbers I get for NA are as good as any stallion breeding today and I am very confident that time will prove my opinion about him to be correct. I think our collective goal (at least mine is) should be to identify high value stallions before their stud fee catches up to their value. I am very confident that NA will be a 50-75k stallion in the very near future. He certainly improves his mares and I thnk he is much better than people realize right now. Time will tell but I wish I had another two years to breed to him before everyone else realizes just what he is. I know I can't control that so I am sharing my information with people on this board hoping that someone else can take advantage of this time window. I am very confident they will not regret it. Feel free to test my system out, ask me about a particular stallion and if I have the research done I can tell you what I think of them. It has been amazingly accurate.
best regards Brendan
hi Brendan
Your enthusiasm is contagious. As you know I like Northern Afleet a lot...and I have recommended him highly. But to genuinely be worthy of a $50k or $75k stud fee...a sire has to show me plenty.
You may very well be correct about the heights that Northern Afleet may attain in the "very near future" (as you wrote)...and if he backs up Afleet Alex with another one or two of that caliber this year...I expect he'll be on the road to the big stud fee...as you predict.
As a matter of interest...how does Northern Afleet compare (using your system) with Successful Appeal and Yes It's True? I suggest that Successful Appeal and Yes It's True are exceptional value at their advertised stud fees.
Best to you.
Respectfully
Your enthusiasm is contagious. As you know I like Northern Afleet a lot...and I have recommended him highly. But to genuinely be worthy of a $50k or $75k stud fee...a sire has to show me plenty.
You may very well be correct about the heights that Northern Afleet may attain in the "very near future" (as you wrote)...and if he backs up Afleet Alex with another one or two of that caliber this year...I expect he'll be on the road to the big stud fee...as you predict.
As a matter of interest...how does Northern Afleet compare (using your system) with Successful Appeal and Yes It's True? I suggest that Successful Appeal and Yes It's True are exceptional value at their advertised stud fees.
Best to you.
Respectfully
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
Liberty, One race shouldn't make or break a horse, but my bigger concern for AA is that Ritchie is training him. This horse needs to go to another barn but I think the owners won't make the move. AA should prove to be one hell of a horse but he may never get to show it if he stays in Ritchie's barn. I am certainly pulling for AA but I have some serious doubts about the trainer. The derby trail is another world and if I had a horse good enough to be on it, I think I would have to go with a proven commoditiy for the training. That is just another league with it's own set of problems. I certainly wouldn't want to be educating a trainer with my horse. It only takes one mistake to ruin the whole dream. I hope I am wrong but I don't feel good about the training situation for AA. In my opinion he has already blown AA's chances of bringing him back to soon after his race two back and now he wants to run him back again in a few weeks. BIG mistake and he is going to hurt this horses chance of winning the derby. I hope I am wrong. Sorry to hear you couldn't get to NA this breeding year. He is the real deal.
best regards Brendan
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
You picked two very nice stallions and from memory I can tell you that I would have no problem breeding to either of them. I will pull their data and send you an additional post with more details. I can tell you I had a choice to breed to Successful Appeal his second year at stud and I made a huge mistake by not breeding to him. He was 5k at Hartley DeLorenzo and when I went to see him he was very good looking, better still his first crop of foals were outstanding individuals. I made a huge mistake there. In case you didn't pick this up from earlier posts I have made, my system evaluates a sire's runners based upon their running ability. So it takes 3 years of breeding (1st crop of two year olds) before I can evaluate a stallions ability. I wish I could do it sooner but my system is based upon track success not pedigree, conformation or any other non racing statistic. Candidly, it is the reason I am so confident in my system. It is quantifiable not subjective. I will get back to you with more data on these two stallions shortly.
best regards Brendan
Brendan,
You have a system and were smart enough to develop it. Good for you!But you have the excuse already if AA flops. It is the trainer.I hope that he doesn't flop for everyone's benefit.
I seem to recall John Servis doing well last year. And a few years ago, Gary Capuano, from Md, trained Captain Bodgit to a 2nd in the Derby and a 3rd in the Preakness. And how about Barclay Tag with Funnycide?
How many not publicized trainers would succeed if they had 1/4 the number of two year olds that Baffert has?
You have a system and were smart enough to develop it. Good for you!But you have the excuse already if AA flops. It is the trainer.I hope that he doesn't flop for everyone's benefit.
I seem to recall John Servis doing well last year. And a few years ago, Gary Capuano, from Md, trained Captain Bodgit to a 2nd in the Derby and a 3rd in the Preakness. And how about Barclay Tag with Funnycide?
How many not publicized trainers would succeed if they had 1/4 the number of two year olds that Baffert has?