Apology

[Bill from WA]

I would like to apologize for my vitriolic outburst earlier this week. You would think that someone of my advanced years would have a little more class. My verbage was harsh, and despite the circumsatnce, I should have maintained a little more cool. I am touched by your support and have decided to swallow my pride return to the message board, and enjoy the many friendships this forum has generated.
There have been a lot of questions regarding the MCM application. The purpose of my theory is an effort to establish the aptitudinal ranges of modern runners based on the pedigree's female influences, and how those influences might be passed on through both male and females within a pedigree. I examine 4 generations and pin-point 16 individuals within the said 4 generations for examination in an effort establish speed or stamina ranges. Following is an excerpt from Modern Conduit Mares, an Aptitudinal Index (out of print). It must be noted that the MCM application is only used to establish aptitudinal ranges, not racing class or talent. GSV scores (George Smith) do an excellent job of evaluating racing talent based on pedigree.

Bill



THE BIRTH AND EVOLUTION OF AN IDEA

As previously noted, the female family of the modern thoroughbred has long held a fascination for me, and I have come to place a very high value on the importance of these matrons when analyzing family history. Evaluating a pedigree based on sire-lines has been the easiest and most popular method used to appraise descent. Statistical information that one might use to interpret performance tilts heavily in favor of the masculine gender, and I have always found this disconcerting, since half of the pedigree is ignored.

Bruce Lowe designed his famous female family numbering system late in the 19th century, borrowing heavily from earlier researchers Goos, Walsh, and Frentzel. At the time of publication, many accepted this controversial work as a breakthrough philosophy; however, the computer age and modern science have now disproved much of what was Lowe’s life’s work, but new studies into mtDNA are providing some credence to his research.

The Equine Genome Project is working to establish a genetic map of the horse, with the work still in progress. There has also been a study in Ireland that is attempting to validate the origins of the breed, which has led to more questions than answers, and new studies regarding mtDNA have hinted at profound female influences ranging many generations. Personally, I am grateful to Lowe and those who came both before and after him, for the perseverance in their endeavors, since their work formed a basis for my own research.

My investigation, which spans many years, has attempted to find links between the female families and racetrack and/or breeding performance. The most difficult question was how to simplify the evaluation process? Since the early family origins have become more and more clouded due to modern research techniques, I decided to focus on the more recent representatives of the female families, and as noted earlier, I created the Modern Conduit Mare concept. Every thoroughbred alive today has a conduit mare. These mares can be traced within the family history of every modern thoroughbred. There are no criteria established for these mares as regard to racing or breeding success, the only qualification is their year of birth (circa 1900). They are simply focal points, or targets used to disseminate information.

As pointed out in earlier chapters of this work, some of these mares were outstanding performers on the racetrack and some were abject failures. The same can be said of their accomplishments in the breeding shed. However, none of these factors are important for our purposes, since these mares are only used as points of reference. By drawing a line down history’s calendar, we have simplified the evaluation process, and moved history closer.

The next step was to establish racing aptitudes or proclivities that might be traceable through these mares. For this, once again, I borrowed from Bruce Lowe, expanding greatly on his narrower research.

Amplifying my initial research, which only included specific Classic races, I traced the winners of over 400 Graded Stakes races run in North America since 1960, and added an additional 200 plus Group races from, Ireland, England, France, Germany, Brazil, Argentina, Japan, and Australia. The total has now reached well over 20,000 individual races (including over 100 marathon steeplechase events).

I then divided the races as to the distances run, and classified those distances in a similar manner to what Vullier, Varola, and Roman had done in the past. BRILLIANT: 6.5 furlongs or less, INTERMEDIATE: 7 furlongs through 1 mile, CLASSIC: over 1 mile through 1 and 1/8th miles, STOUT: over 1 and 1/8th miles through 1 and 1/4 miles, and PROFESSIONAL: over 1 and 1/4 miles. I traced each of these winners to their conduit mare, and established a derivation of aptitudes based on the number of winners tracing to particular conduit mares within each category. I then utilized a formula, which assigned a number to each mare based on the running aptitudes of their descendants, which then established that mare’s aptitudinal contribution. Some of the mares had descendants that excelled in all of the categories. I dubbed these mares as Transcendent Mares, since they transcend categorization. These mares are designated B/P (Brilliant/Professional) placing them at both ends of the spectrum. Other mares showed enough diversity to be dual classified, and were designated as such.
A formula was then established that is similar to Dr. Roman's dosage index except this time utilizing the conduit mare contributions instead of the "chefs" designations. The results have been encouraging, and seem to answer some of the questions posed by stallion dosage indexes, a case in point being the stamina dosage of champion sprinter Kona Gold, which changes to a sprinters classification when the conduit index is used.

[DDT]

Bill

I see no need for apology, in fact I think you kept it pretty civil under the circumstances, however, I think your post should clarify some things for some people.

Please stay put, we need your input.

DDT

[Bill from WA]

Thank you DDT.

I have to take this chance to compliment you on your handicapping insight. I have learned a lot by reading your posts. That's one of the pleasures of this forum. It exposes the participants to a wide variety of theories and applications, and there is always room to learn new things no matter how old (as in my case) or young you are.

Bill

[Strategic Maneuver]

So glad you decided to come back!! Always look forward to your and George's posts and from a selfish standpoint, hoping to gain some insight on your picks for the Preakness so I can hopefully make up some Derby losses

[xfactor fan]

Thank you for coming back. Love your information and real research.

On another note would you be willing to provide the name of a mare that is Brilliant/Proffessional?

Thanks again for returning.

[docjocoy]

Bill,
I also see no need for an apology, and I am glad you are back and hopefully healthy.
Your MCM theories have been interesting reading for me, and I'm so glad I was able to get the book before it went out of print.

Someone of "advanced years" such as yourself has a wider and more pragmatic view of the world, interesting that you would think that your responses were "vitriolic' and "harsh," but be that as it may, it's still ok for an old guy to growl a little bit.

I met you at a Harris Ranch seminar a few years ago. You were so gracious to spend time talking to me. I could have spent the whole evening picking your brain.

Again, glad you are back.

[Bast]

Welcome back.

No need to apologize.

[pfrsue]

YAY! I know I have little to contribute, but I always enjoy your posts and expertise, Bill. I'm so glad you decided to stay with us.

[Bill from WA]

Hi xfactorfan.

Thank you for the kind words. Over 800 mares are on the updated list,
Below are B/P conduit mares.

Armenia (A4)
Cherokee Rose II (8c)
Chit Chat (1c)
Countess Wanda (A4)
Doxa (1s)
Flaming Vixen (2g)
Frizette (13c)
Marchetta (1w)
Miss Fiora (5f)
Noka (1j)
Rambling Rose (3L)
Rose Leaves (9f)
Saint Astra (9f)
Skyscraper (1n)
Ste Claire (8g)
Stolen Kiss (3d)
Valve (1L)

[Bill from WA]

Hi docjocoy

I have fond memories of our meeting and subsequent conversations at the Harris Ranch Seminar. I want to thank you for your continuing interest and support.

Best to you.

Bill

[zinn21]

Bill, glad to hear you're back. I don't know if you will recall but several years ago you completed a pedigree analysis on my mare, Grace N Perfection. It was your analysis along with input from a confirmation expert that helped me on selecting a stallion. Happy to share with you her first foal, Show Off, broke his maiden in his first start and came back to run an excellent 3rd going long, with the winner of said race coming back yesterday to run a fine 3rd in the Alcatraz Stakes at Golden Gate Fields.. Needless to say we are pretty excited about his future. Thanks again and welcome back!

[Jessi P]

Bill absolutely NO apology is necessary. I for one always learn a lot from your posts and consider your insight invaluable. It would have been a huge loss for all of us if you had truly gone for good. Thanks for returning.

[Bill from WA]

Fantastic news zinn! I am so pleased that I was of service in any way. What a thrill to have runner of your own breeding fulfill the dream. I wish you much more success in the future.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

Thank you Jessi. I don't think you realize how important you have been to me over the past few years. You will always have a very special place in my heart.

Bill

[Bettina]

Hallo, Bill,
fine to hear you are back.

Regarding your mentioning of "earlier researchers of Goos, Walsh and Frentzel". I have the great luck to have access to his work. When Iwas in the arly stages of by one tracing female families I found a copy in a Local University Library and then it was a great help, even I could track down some "false" family connection. Like Lowe he called them Female families but came up with 97 families. He used as basis the Vol. 1 - 14 of the GSB. When I started his "numbering" is differnt from Lowe's for exemple the Lowe family 1 is the "Frentzel" family 11 and so on. I did some years ago a list turning the "FF" into "LF" with some interesting results. Some weeks ago I had a look at my listing and I think I have to do some "corrections"

Regarding your "Conduit Mares"
Fam 1-j (Noka) is in Germany the damline of the influential Sire Birkhahn and his lesser known 3/4 brother Burgermeister. Their dam Bramouse had 2 Fillies foals, but they don't have any offspring listed in the German Thoroughbred Studbook. What I didn't know a very closes relative named Principor (By Prince Rose) ended up in NZ, see the "Night Spi" branch of Fam. 2-g (Flaming Vixen). There is/was an Italian Branch with Sires Crapom/Pilade. If my memory don't fail me I find some descents fom this branch of Fam. 1-j in th U.S. breeding, too.

Fam. 1-c was introduced into Germanbreeding with import of "Spirit of Eagles" and her best offspring Silvano/Sabiango.

Best regards from Germany, Bettina
P.S: Have you received my "PM"