The Preakness

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Thu May 10, 2012 1:50 pm

who do we know are confirmed so far? I'll Have Another ovbiously and went the day well will be going.

Pretty sure Dullahan isn't per his connections,50/50 on BM, also 50/50 on T'Berg whatever BM doesn't do T'berg will do

madelyn · Postby **madelyn** » Thu May 10, 2012 2:19 pm

This is the field on the official website:

1
I'll Have Another J. Paul Reddam Doug F. O'Neill Mario Gutierrez Harvey Clarke
2
Bodemeister Zayat Stables and Southern Equine Stable Bob Baffert Mike Smith Audley Farm, Inc.
3
Dullahan Donegal Racing Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux Phil Needham, Judy Needham and Bena Halecky
4
Went the Day Well Team Valor International and Mark Ford H. Graham Motion John R. Velazquez James Patrick Delaney
5
Creative Cause Heinz Steinmann Mike Harrington Joel Rosario James C. Weigel
6
Hansen Kendell Hensen, M.D. and Sky Chai Racing Michael Maker Ramon Dominguez Dr. Kendall Hansen
7
Liaison Arnold Zetcher LLC Bob Baffert Rafael Bejarano William A. Carl Estate
9
Isn't He Clever J. Kirk & Judy Robinson Steven Asmussen TBA Monticule
9
Optimizer Bluegrass Hall D. Wayne Lukas Jon Court Bluegrass Hall
10
Hierro Stonestreet Stables Steven M. Asmussen Julien Leparoux Sally Andersen
11
Teeth of the Dog J. W. Singer Michael Matz Joe Bravo Royal Pegasus
12
Pretension Kidwells Petite Stable Christopher Grove Javier Santiago Sequel Thoroughbreds and A. Lakin & Sons
11
Tiger Walk Sagamore Farm Ignacio Correas IV TBA River Bend Farm
14
Paynter Zayat Stables Bob Baffert Martin Garcia Diamond A Racing

karenkarenn · Postby **karenkarenn** » Thu May 10, 2012 2:25 pm

Teeth of the dog and Isn't he clever have a sire in common ..

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Thu May 10, 2012 2:40 pm

I think those are propables. I am pretty sure I read that baffert said he wouldn't know anything on BM utnil the week of the Preakness and the same for Creative Cause.

who in the heck is teeth of the dog?

karenkarenn · Postby **karenkarenn** » Thu May 10, 2012 2:42 pm

He is 3rd in the WOOD.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu May 10, 2012 5:30 pm

I think that Hierro has the best chance of the new shooters to be in the mix, but I don't think he'll win. Worth considering for the exotics (IMO).

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri May 11, 2012 8:09 am

Dullahan is not going

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Sat May 12, 2012 9:08 am

Dullahan is out...they said this is to prepare him for the 12f Belmont...maybe a smart plan...his final furong in the Derby
was eye-catching indeed.....but has left too much to catch up.

madelyn · Postby **madelyn** » Sat May 12, 2012 9:42 am

So are Hansen and Trinniberg.. not going that is.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat May 12, 2012 10:44 am

wangkw wrote:Dullahan is out...they said this is to prepare him for the 12f Belmont...maybe a smart plan...his final furong in the Derby
was eye-catching indeed.....but has left too much to catch up.

this to me is the most facinating part of the triple crown trail besides the derby

every year. EVERY year, the horse that is closing hard into the torrid pace of a 10F race ran that has half the field full of horses who are really 1 turn horses, the connections are sure that the only thing the horse needs to win his jewel of the triple crown is 2 additional furlongs

the only time in recent history this has worked out to my recollection is jazil and well, that family just breds belmont winners like no other, he was literally born to win the belmont.

and it never fails. ever year he's the wiseguy horse.

Dullahan's best chance to win a race is in the preakness not the belmont. he needs a hot pace to run into and he won't get that in the belmont. his hard close will be drawn out into a slow grind and he will finish a non threatening 4th.

he is too deep a closer to where his running style is 10x more dependant on the races pace, not hte distance of the race. he needs a hot pace to run into. he's not getting it in the belmont. The connections are banking on him just having more stanima than the other horses and I don't know if that is very prudent. BM's sire won the belmont, I'll have another will run all day long, as will went the day well and hell creative causes dam was placed in a grade 1 10F race.

you could throw summer bird in that group but I do not think he won becuase he got more distance i think he won becuase 1. mine that bird's jockey screwed up and moved too soon and 2. he was just better then he was in the derby plus the derby was sloppy / muddy and the belmont was fast.

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Sat May 12, 2012 5:24 pm

A mathemtical recount of what had happened in the final furong of Derby :

I'll Have Another : finished 1st from 2nd, made up 4 1/2 lengths
Bodemeister : finished 2nd from 1st, gave up 4 1/2
Dullahan : finished 3rd from 5th, made up 6 3/8
Went The Day Well : finished 4th from 9th, made up 8 3/16
Creative Clause : finished 5th from 3rd, made up 2 1/8
Liason : finished 6th from 6th, made up 1 1/8
Hansen : finished 9th from 4th, gave up 4 5/8

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Sat May 12, 2012 10:55 pm

Bdw..the difficulty of home-running a grand slam in racing is not just the 2 turns of the final but aussi the compactness... only 5 weeks to round up
the entire thing...thus freshness, albeit unquantifiable in strict common sense, got to be priced in...I guess since Affirmed many horses have been
missing that coveted glory due to that ?

If that hypothesis is acceptable...I expect I'll Have Another spree to stop at 2...at best...in early June, many destroyers, frigates are out there
awaiting to spoil his fun.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun May 13, 2012 12:56 am

wangkw wrote:Bdw..the difficulty of home-running a grand slam in racing is not just the 2 turns of the final but aussi the compactness... only 5 weeks to round up
the entire thing...thus freshness, albeit unquantifiable in strict common sense, got to be priced in...I guess since Affirmed many horses have been
missing that coveted glory due to that ?

If that hypothesis is acceptable...I expect I'll Have Another spree to stop at 2...at best...in early June, many destroyers, frigates are out there
awaiting to spoil his fun.

if i had to put money on the outcome, we go into belmont with a triple crown on the line but bodemeister ruins the party.

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Sun May 13, 2012 3:33 am

From my maths above..I worry for bodemeister to be able to handle the role...I will choose Went The Day Well or Dullahan instead...esp the
later..as the former will take a box on 19 May...likewise Creative Cause has the potential..but again the tight schdule will weigh on him.

The grey Hansen seemed to be a very different fellow last week. Unable to understand his nonchalant style.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun May 13, 2012 11:54 am

the thing about went the day well and DH is that, at least to me this is how I feel, they will never get more favorable pace scenario than they got in the derby ever and they still couldn't win. they won't ever get a pace that hard to run in again and couldn't get it done.