Fountain of Youth and Risen Star Entries

[TJ]

Two competitive 50 point Derby preps this Saturday in Louisiana and Florida. TJ

11th Race. (C10) Post 5:35PM
STAKES
The 69th Running of
The Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth (Grade II)
Purse $400,000 Guaranteed (Plus $40,000 F.T.B.O.A. Winner Supp.) 1 1/16 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 ORB (L) McGaughey III, C Velazquez, J 116
2 JOSHUA'S COMPRISE (L) Rose, B Prado, E 116
3 VIOLENCE (L) Pletcher, T Castellano, J 122
4 MAJESTIC HUSSAR (L) Kenneally, E Saez, L 116
5 ELMUTAHID McLaughlin, K Bravo, J 116
6 CERRO (IRE) (L) Motion, H Rocco, Jr., J 116
7 SKY CAPTAIN (L) Casse, M Husbands, P 116
8 SPEAK LOGISTICS (L) Plesa, Jr., E Rosario, J 116
9 HE'S HAD ENOUGH (L) O'Neill, D Gutierrez, M 116
10 FALLING SKY (L) Terranova, II, J Espinoza, J 120
11 SR. QUISQUEYANO (L) Olivares, L Olivero, C 118

10th Race. (C10)Post 4:57PM STAKES
The 40th Running of
RISEN STAR STAKES (Grade II)
Purse $400,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 PROUD STRIKE (B) R33 Asmussen, S Stevens, G 116
2 CODE WEST (B) Baffert, B Garcia, M 116
3 AGENT (B) E50 McAnally, J Eramia, R 116
4 GOLDEN SOUL (B) R26 Stewart, D Mena, M 116
5 MYLUTE (B) R22 Amoss, T Bridgmohan, S 116
6 PALACE MALICE (B) Pletcher, T Napravnik, R 116
7 HARDROCK ELEVEN (B) Banks, D Theriot, J 116
8 IVE STRUCK A NERVE (B) R3 Desormeaux, J Graham, J 116
9 NORMANDY INVASION (B) Brown, C Lezcano, J 116
10 OXBOW (B) Lukas, D Court, J 120
11 BETHEL (B) R55 Dorochenko, G Diego, I 116
12 HE'S HAD ENOUGH (B) O'Neill, D Gutierrez, M 116
13 CIRCLE UNBROKEN (B) E5 Simms, G Goncalves, L 116
14 DEPARTING R45 Stall, Jr., A Hernandez, Jr., B 116
--Also Eligibles--
15 SUNBEAN (B) R45 Stall, Jr., A Hernandez, C 116
Blinkers Off: Code West

[bdw0617]

normady invasion is my quasi derby horse. i like him a lot.


going with orb in the fountain of youth if he runs

[Cree]

Which race is He's Had Enough actually running in?

I am interested to see Cerro (IRE) and Orb.

[Bill from WA]

Fountain of Youth (Violence may be tough, but I'm going out on a limb here)

1) Cerro
2) Orb
3) (my longshot) Majestic Hussar

Risen Star

Normandy Invasion looks tough at this distance (however, I don't think he will get the Derby distance). That said, others that I like are:

1) Proud Strike
2) Code West
3) Palace Malice

[TJ]

Which race is He's Had Enough actually running in?

I am interested to see Cerro (IRE) and Orb.

Hi Cree,
He's Had Enough is supposed to run in the Fountain Of Youth....they weren't happy with either post position draw and decided his draw in the FOY offered him a better chance. Motion was taking a look at the field before deciding if he will run or not....no decision yet? McLaughlin's maiden winner, Elmutahid, reminds me of Questing. They both were thought to be turf horses, but when they hit the dirt for the first time...they changed gears. Although Elmutahid didn't gradually move up the ladder to stakes company as Questing did....it will be interesting to see how improved he is over the new surface? TJ

[Bill from WA]

Here is a glance at the female family lineage of the entries in this weekend’s Fountain of Youth Stakes (from a conduit mare perspective), listed by post position, followed by female family number, Conduit Mare, Aptitude, and significant “Classic” winners (15 different races world-wide), and/or Broodmares of the Year, descending from that conduit mare.

1) Orb (8c) : Cherokee Rose II (B/P). Fusaichi Pegasus (Kentucky Derby), Jaipur (Belmont Stakes), Pine Bluff (Preakness), Ruffian (CCA Oaks), (Broodmares of the Year Shenanigans and Potheen)
2) Joshua’s Comprise (1l) : Paraffine Lass (S). Master Derby (Preakness), Sun Princess (Epsom Oaks and the St Leger Stakes), Millenary (St Leger), Conduit (St Leger)
3) Violence (1g) : Home Rule (B). Sky Beauty (CCA Oaks)
4) Majestic Hussar (2s) : Bill and Coo (P). Empery (Epsom Derby), Alleged (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, twice), Nonoalco (2000 Guineas), Secretariat (American Triple Crown), Elocutionist (Preakness), Fiesta Gal (CCA Oaks), Somethingroyal (Broodmare of the Year)
5) Elmutahid (1s) : Doxa (B/P). Allez France (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe), Spend a Buck (Kentucky Derby), Go For Gin (Kentucky Derby), Sea Hero (Kentucky Derby), Smarty Jones (Kentucky Derby and Preakness), Prairie Bayou (Preakness), Personality (Preakness), Lite Light (CCA Oaks), Tweedside (CCA Oaks), (Broodmares of the Year, Glowing Tribute, Relaxing, and Striking)
6) Cerro (8f) : Torpenhow (I/S). Nijinski II (Epsom Derby and St Leger), The Minstrel (Epsom Derby), El Gran Senor (2000 Guineas), Jazil (Belmont Stakes), Rags To Riches (Belmont Stakes), Better Than Honor and Best In Show (Broodmare of the Year)
7) Sky Captain (1s) : Doxa (B/P). See Elmutahid.
8) Speak Logistics (4m) : Mary King (I). Magazine (CCA Oaks), Dai Jin (Deutches Derby), Bernardini (Preakness), ) Light Shift (Epsom Oaks), Cara Rafaela (Broodmare of the Year)
9) He’s Had Enough (A4) : Countess Wanda (B/P). Swaps (Kentucky Derby), Courtly Dee, Track Medal, Iron Reward (Broodmare of the Year)
10) Falling Sky (4m) Bohemia (C). None (of the 15 selected races).
11) Sr. Quisqueyano (3h) : Penney Forfeit (S). Prince Royal (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe)

[TJ]

In Saturday's Fountain of Youth it looks like Sky Captain will be scratched, Both Motion and Shug have decided to run Cerro and Orb respectively.
After looking over the field for the Fountain of Youth I'm almost forced to like Violence. Despite having a lot against him, making his 3YO debut going 1 1/16 th miles off of a a ten week absence and packing top weight in the field....he is after all, a GR I and II winner and draws a good post. I will admit, I'm leaning to him partially because Pletcher thinks he is a good one and can rate if need be....but by the same token, won't allow anyone to steal off too far away from him from his advantageous inside post. Under such a perfect scenario, it makes sense that he should win this:>) There is another horse I watched run at Tampa, who I though should have won last time after watching the replay....he was steadied just as he was going to the lead and came up empty after that. He gets a favorable jockey switch to Joel Rosario and an 8lb weight shift in his favor from the winner of that race (Falling Sky). I think he might be able to turn the tables on that one with a little luck. His name is Speak Logistics and he should be a big price. There are a number of decent horses who can easily win this...but it's only the first of the 50 point qualifiers and opinions are all we have right now:>) We have a lot of time to come up with the Derby winner....and each of these preps will bring us to that final decision. I also wanted to point out that these 50 point qualifying races have a total of 85 points up for grabs....so 2nd, 3rd and 4th is important as well.
Moving on to the Risen Star...Pletcher once again has a serious contender in Palace Malice. He proved to be a decent sort early in his career...he would consistently gallop out strongly after the wire. A pretty good sign that distance is in his future....today he makes his first start around two turns and may take the measure of Normandy Invasion because of his ability to control the pace from the 6 post. Oxbow and Mylute look to be contenders. Good luck everybody! TJ

[erhrdt3]

I'm going for Orb if he has RUFFIAN in his family tree!

Hard to believe all the KY Derby races are starting now, seems like it was just a few short months ago when I'll Have Another was running!

[bdw0617]

it's like the older you get the quicker it goes by. this sucks lol

[Whirlaway]

In Saturday's Fountain of Youth it looks like Sky Captain will be scratched, Both Motion and Shug have decided to run Cerro and Orb respectively.
After looking over the field for the Fountain of Youth I'm almost forced to like Violence. Despite having a lot against him, making his 3YO debut going 1 1/16 th miles off of a a ten week absence and packing top weight in the field....he is after all, a GR I and II winner and draws a good post. I will admit, I'm leaning to him partially because Pletcher thinks he is a good one and can rate if need be....but by the same token, won't allow anyone to steal off too far away from him from his advantageous inside post. Under such a perfect scenario, it makes sense that he should win this:>) There is another horse I watched run at Tampa, who I though should have won last time after watching the replay....he was steadied just as he was going to the lead and came up empty after that. He gets a favorable jockey switch to Joel Rosario and an 8lb weight shift in his favor from the winner of that race (Falling Sky). I think he might be able to turn the tables on that one with a little luck. His name is Speak Logistics and he should be a big price. There are a number of decent horses who can easily win this...but it's only the first of the 50 point qualifiers and opinions are all we have right now:>) We have a lot of time to come up with the Derby winner....and each of these preps will bring us to that final decision. I also wanted to point out that these 50 point qualifying races have a total of 85 points up for grabs....so 2nd, 3rd and 4th is important as well.
Moving on to the Risen Star...Pletcher once again has a serious contender in Palace Malice. He proved to be a decent sort early in his career...he would consistently gallop out strongly after the wire. A pretty good sign that distance is in his future....today he makes his first start around two turns and may take the measure of Normandy Invasion because of his ability to control the pace from the 6 post. Oxbow and Mylute look to be contenders. Good luck everybody! TJ

Nice analysis.

I would add that Violence is second high weight on the Experimental Free Handicap at 123 lbs, right behind Shanghai Bobby, both of em' Dual Qualifiers. He is no doubt the class of the field and has demonstrated the ability to win comin' off a layoff. It'll be interesting to see how far his class will carry him considering he is not likely in top condition. I was takin' at look at the Dosage and Elite Horses link and the Dosage numbers for Kentucky Derby Winners 1983 - 2011 - his numbers fit quite well for a Derby horse. Likin' Violence, lookin forward to the race. Wish I was at Gulfstream Park come the Fountain of Youth! http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/elite.htm

Couple of nice colts coming out of Sam Davis, in particularly Falling Sky. He wired em' in the sand at Tampa Bay and he possesses the best Roman Performance Figure of the bunch. If that effort in the Davis didn't knock him for a loop, I'm figuring he'll be right there. And Speaking of Logistics, he ran a good one in the Sam Davis, was full of run comin' at em" mid turn but was checked up - flattened out int he stretch, can't say for certain that the was gonna get to the winner that day - shows a sharp 4fl work and as noted a positive jock switch, I'm thinkin' he should get a piece of it.

[bdw0617]

orb beats violence in teh fountain of youth

with that said violence ran better than i thought he would that was a wicked pace even for gulfstream

[Cree]

Orb! Nice call on him. I was curious about this horse, looks like a nice one.

[bdw0617]

yeah a 99 to 1 shot just won the risen star lolol


that's not even news at fair grounds




130 to freaking 1 shot.

[Cree]

Nice. Nobody had that horse.
The Baffert colt was 2nd.

[bayrabicano]

yeah a 99 to 1 shot just won the risen star lolol


that's not even news at fair grounds




130 to freaking 1 shot.

Appropriately named, I've Struck A Nerve.