kimberley mine wrote:Knock him down to $100k and he's alright. Knock him down to $85k and he's a deal.
Its like our minds have sinc'd up lately............
Bernardini sons
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
hi dublino
It may be more than a bit over the top
to suggest that 'Bernardini is bad for the breed' ...
... As for Arch, to my way of thinking, he's certainly done a whole lotta good...and proven (to me anyway) that he's pretty darn special.
Re Lemon Drop Kid...he can certainly sire a runner, but at the sales...he rarely seems to capture the imagination.
Best to ya.
Respectfully
dublino wrote:I am going to get slated for this but here goes.
Bernadini is not worth the hype.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-regi ... ree=126196
Compared to Arch and Lemon Drop Kid, he doesn't look good.
Horses like Bernadini are bad for the breed.
494 foals 114 winners.
I'll put on my crash helmet....
It may be more than a bit over the top
to suggest that 'Bernardini is bad for the breed' ...
... As for Arch, to my way of thinking, he's certainly done a whole lotta good...and proven (to me anyway) that he's pretty darn special.
Re Lemon Drop Kid...he can certainly sire a runner, but at the sales...he rarely seems to capture the imagination.
Best to ya.
Respectfully
Hi Kimberley et al,
From the breeding Farm's perspective, any stallion that gets a full book of paying customers has priced their stallion correctly, if not too low! Bernardini has been heavily booked (full) every year that he's been at stud so the idea that he's overpriced is just chin music for the uninvolved.
Perception and (reputation) is more important to the commercial success of a stallion than fact. I agree with Sysonby about Medaglia D'Oro's son Violence and the favorable impact that he will have on his sire's reputation. Violence is only one horse but he will mitigate the perception that Medaglia D'Oro is just a filly sire similar to how Barbaro helped Dynaformer, etc.
As long as Bernardini gets sons that are on the Derby Trail and that win graded stakes, he will be a commercially successful sire. His sons are starting to flock to the shed and that will be the ultimate arbitor of his value.
Regards,
Pete
From the breeding Farm's perspective, any stallion that gets a full book of paying customers has priced their stallion correctly, if not too low! Bernardini has been heavily booked (full) every year that he's been at stud so the idea that he's overpriced is just chin music for the uninvolved.
Perception and (reputation) is more important to the commercial success of a stallion than fact. I agree with Sysonby about Medaglia D'Oro's son Violence and the favorable impact that he will have on his sire's reputation. Violence is only one horse but he will mitigate the perception that Medaglia D'Oro is just a filly sire similar to how Barbaro helped Dynaformer, etc.
As long as Bernardini gets sons that are on the Derby Trail and that win graded stakes, he will be a commercially successful sire. His sons are starting to flock to the shed and that will be the ultimate arbitor of his value.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi Dublino,
I recently made some comments about a stallion elsewhere on this board that were thought to be harsh but my commentary was based on objective metrics and I added as much positive as I could (but I won't stretch the truth).
People invest in stallions both as owners and breeders. The foals are living investments. It's real doubtful that isolated negative comments will affect their value but no one likes to hear that a BMW sucks after they bought one.
When you list 497 foals by Bernardini you're including his just turned yearlings and 2yos that aren't of racing age yet. I'm sure that you didn't intend to misrepresent the facts because most folks on this forum know not to include them when evaluating a sire.
Regards,
Pete
I recently made some comments about a stallion elsewhere on this board that were thought to be harsh but my commentary was based on objective metrics and I added as much positive as I could (but I won't stretch the truth).
People invest in stallions both as owners and breeders. The foals are living investments. It's real doubtful that isolated negative comments will affect their value but no one likes to hear that a BMW sucks after they bought one.
When you list 497 foals by Bernardini you're including his just turned yearlings and 2yos that aren't of racing age yet. I'm sure that you didn't intend to misrepresent the facts because most folks on this forum know not to include them when evaluating a sire.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Hi StLouisKid,
Sorry for the tardy reply.
I picked up Arch and Smart Strike when they were down ($10,000 or less) but not Lemon Drop Kid.
I like Hansen ($12,500) and The Factor ($15,000) as new stallions. A rarity - I think that they're fairly priced.
Use Hansen with mares that have substance.
The Factor was a very fast boy and Danzig's male line appears to be ascending in North America.
I like these two now and perhaps later when they're on the bubble.
I didn't use Algorithms but he could be interesting at the price point ($7,500). May want to wait until foals are on the ground.
At $35,000, Union Rags and Uncle Mo are expensive.
Used Henny Hughes @$6,250 a couple of years ago and now that looks good so $7,500 might be OK too. If Beholder or others hold up he could be BFTD (back from the dead). Used Rockport Harbor at $10,000 (same year), not so good.
Successful Appeal ($10,000) solid.
Mizzen Mast ($15,000) BC wins sell.
First Samurai ($10,000) looks good.
Broken Vow ($25,000) is solid play for a Dixieland Band mare.
Northern Afleet ($8,000) - If you can afford to race the foal if it doesn't sell well hes ok.
Stallions that I was on last year were Mineshaft ($25,000), Ghostzapper ($20,000), Harlan's Holiday ($25,000), Proud Citizen ($7,500) but they've all moved up. I still like them but less at 2013 prices. Used Proud Citizen with an El Prado mare.
Flower Alley ($20,000) profile looks like Birdstone. I can't get behind Scat Daddy at $30,000.
Regionally I think that Too Much Bling (TX) is looking shiny (pardons - bad pun). His horses aren't winning quality stakes, nor accumulating large sums yet, but he has a high percentage of good runners, a solid 2012 2yo crop and a modest fee of $4,000. If I were in TX I'd be going to him.
Frost Giant (NY) has made some noise with a modest number of runners but keep in mind that they are from one of the smallest NY foal crops in recent memory. By the time that your Frost Giant 2013 mating would be born it will be into one of the largest NY crops ever (slots finally arrived). At $7,500 I'm not a buyer but the stallion may have some promise.
Keep an eye on Lane's End for young sires that didn't live up to expectations because this farm brings them back from the dead better than anyone. Curlin might be worth a look if he slips to $10,000. They resuscitated Kingmambo, Lemon Drop Kid, Smart Strike and Mineshaft in the past. Much of this is because of the type of mares that they and their client base have. Winstar - will all the new additions can't be considered as reliable as in the past. I'm holding back on their stallions for the present.
Regards,
Pete
Sorry for the tardy reply.
I picked up Arch and Smart Strike when they were down ($10,000 or less) but not Lemon Drop Kid.
I like Hansen ($12,500) and The Factor ($15,000) as new stallions. A rarity - I think that they're fairly priced.
Use Hansen with mares that have substance.
The Factor was a very fast boy and Danzig's male line appears to be ascending in North America.
I like these two now and perhaps later when they're on the bubble.
I didn't use Algorithms but he could be interesting at the price point ($7,500). May want to wait until foals are on the ground.
At $35,000, Union Rags and Uncle Mo are expensive.
Used Henny Hughes @$6,250 a couple of years ago and now that looks good so $7,500 might be OK too. If Beholder or others hold up he could be BFTD (back from the dead). Used Rockport Harbor at $10,000 (same year), not so good.
Successful Appeal ($10,000) solid.
Mizzen Mast ($15,000) BC wins sell.
First Samurai ($10,000) looks good.
Broken Vow ($25,000) is solid play for a Dixieland Band mare.
Northern Afleet ($8,000) - If you can afford to race the foal if it doesn't sell well hes ok.
Stallions that I was on last year were Mineshaft ($25,000), Ghostzapper ($20,000), Harlan's Holiday ($25,000), Proud Citizen ($7,500) but they've all moved up. I still like them but less at 2013 prices. Used Proud Citizen with an El Prado mare.
Flower Alley ($20,000) profile looks like Birdstone. I can't get behind Scat Daddy at $30,000.
Regionally I think that Too Much Bling (TX) is looking shiny (pardons - bad pun). His horses aren't winning quality stakes, nor accumulating large sums yet, but he has a high percentage of good runners, a solid 2012 2yo crop and a modest fee of $4,000. If I were in TX I'd be going to him.
Frost Giant (NY) has made some noise with a modest number of runners but keep in mind that they are from one of the smallest NY foal crops in recent memory. By the time that your Frost Giant 2013 mating would be born it will be into one of the largest NY crops ever (slots finally arrived). At $7,500 I'm not a buyer but the stallion may have some promise.
Keep an eye on Lane's End for young sires that didn't live up to expectations because this farm brings them back from the dead better than anyone. Curlin might be worth a look if he slips to $10,000. They resuscitated Kingmambo, Lemon Drop Kid, Smart Strike and Mineshaft in the past. Much of this is because of the type of mares that they and their client base have. Winstar - will all the new additions can't be considered as reliable as in the past. I'm holding back on their stallions for the present.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
Pete don't try to be nice when ur having a swipe at someone. Say what you got to say and don't dress it up.
The Factor is a dud, if siring a horse is about passing on DNA who is gonna want a small scrawny horse?
Hansen hmmm don't know, yes raw speed and ability but looked like he lacked a brain and stamina.
As for Bernardini being booked full at his price, what's your point people know what they are doing? Breeders/farm managers?? lol
Name the last Bernardini/ap indy son to win the Derby?
While you here your thoughts on Tapit being bred to Havre de Grace?
The Factor is a dud, if siring a horse is about passing on DNA who is gonna want a small scrawny horse?
Hansen hmmm don't know, yes raw speed and ability but looked like he lacked a brain and stamina.
As for Bernardini being booked full at his price, what's your point people know what they are doing? Breeders/farm managers?? lol
Name the last Bernardini/ap indy son to win the Derby?
While you here your thoughts on Tapit being bred to Havre de Grace?
Edited by Moderator
dublino wrote:dublino wrote:Ohh and forgot to add think Malibu Moon better than Bernardini and @ $70,000 putting up better numbers, similar bred as well.
Cough cough........
Orb
Should be interesting...I've always thought of him as a filly sire...literally bypassing colts at the sales because of that...now - he will totally take off....
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Affirmed1
- Allowance Winner
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[quote="dublino"]Pete don't try to be nice when ur having a swipe at someone. Say what you got to say and don't dress it up.
The Factor is a dud, if siring a horse is about passing on DNA who is gonna want a small scrawny horse?
Hansen hmmm don't know, yes raw speed and ability but looked like he lacked a brain and stamina.
As for Bernardini being booked full at his price, what's your point people know what they are doing? Breeders/farm managers?? lol
Name the last Bernardini/ap indy son to win the Derby?
While you here your thoughts on Tapit being bred to Havre de Grace?[/quote]
I was struck this year by how few of the Derby starters were by "top tier" stallions. Two starters were by the short-lived War Pass, two by Into Mischief, one by Perfect Soul...etc etc. Where were the Bernardinis, Awesome Agains, Distorted Humors, Smart Strikes, Street Crys, etc? I also agree with Dublino about Bernardini- given the caliber of mares he had in his first couple of books, I believe he has been an underachiever.
The Factor is a dud, if siring a horse is about passing on DNA who is gonna want a small scrawny horse?
Hansen hmmm don't know, yes raw speed and ability but looked like he lacked a brain and stamina.
As for Bernardini being booked full at his price, what's your point people know what they are doing? Breeders/farm managers?? lol
Name the last Bernardini/ap indy son to win the Derby?
While you here your thoughts on Tapit being bred to Havre de Grace?[/quote]
I was struck this year by how few of the Derby starters were by "top tier" stallions. Two starters were by the short-lived War Pass, two by Into Mischief, one by Perfect Soul...etc etc. Where were the Bernardinis, Awesome Agains, Distorted Humors, Smart Strikes, Street Crys, etc? I also agree with Dublino about Bernardini- given the caliber of mares he had in his first couple of books, I believe he has been an underachiever.
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1811
- Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Affirmed1 wrote:I was struck this year by how few of the Derby starters were by "top tier" stallions. Two starters were by the short-lived War Pass, two by Into Mischief, one by Perfect Soul...etc etc. Where were the Bernardinis, Awesome Agains, Distorted Humors, Smart Strikes, Street Crys, etc? I also agree with Dublino about Bernardini- given the caliber of mares he had in his first couple of books, I believe he has been an underachiever.
You have to remember that foal crops in north america number in the tens of thousands and there are 20 slots in the starting gate. Not every one of the "big guns" will have one each year.
Here are the stallions standing in the $60k and up ranges:
Hard Spun: best are older
Malibu Moon: Orb won the Derby,
Speightstown: have always been best as older horses, no change this year
Unbridled's Song: Will Take Charge ran in the Derby
Awesome Again: Oxbow ran in the Derby.
Giant's Causeway: his best 3yos are running in South Africa and France at the moment
More Than Ready: Verrazano ran in the Derby.
Smart Strike: 2 Gr-1 winning older horses, 3yos quiet.
Tiznow: quiet year so far.
War Front: Lines of Battle ran in the Derby, Departing will run in the Preakness.
Distorted Humor: 3yos quiet, couple of older horses running well.
Tapit: Normandy Invasion ran in the Derby
Bernardini: NOBODY running in north america, has a very, very good filly in NZ.
Medaglia D'Oro: Violence was on the TC trail before his injury, Crop Report on the trail and will probably go to the Preakness or Belmont
Street Cry: best horses in Australia at the moment
So, out of 13 horses with 3yos and up in North America in this price range (e.g. not Lonhro), 6 had foals run in the Derby. That's actually not a bad hit rate at all--45% of the top horses had runners including the winner. Of the remainder, twohave top older horses running (Smart Strike and Speightstown), and two have their best 3yo horses running overseas (Giant's Causeway and Street Cry). With only one good filly running in NZ right now--and she out of a Zabeel mare--Bernardini is lagging, big time.
Seven of the top ten stallions in North America so far this year had a Derby runner: Malibu Moon, Unbridled's Song, Tapit, Kitten's Joy, More That Ready,
Awesome Again, and War Front. Smart Strike is just a smidge behind in 11th place. Medaglia D'oro and Distorted Humor are in the top 20, Tiznow in 27th place. Street Cry and Hard Spun are 39 and 40, respectively, and Bernardini is WAY back in 66th place. For comparison, AP Indy is at 42nd place, and Dynaformer at 71.
So, yeah, Bernardini needs to step up his game, big time, if he's going to stay in the same fee bracket as these guys.
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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Re: Bernardini sons
jlm wrote:Any information on Wilburn or the newcomers at stud by Bernardini? Thoughts on pedigrees and conformation please! Looking for KY location stallions.
Sorry, this is probably too late of a posting to help out on your 2013 mating plans but I have a Wilburn filly and she is by far the best looking foal I have bred (keep in mind we are talking about a small sample size as she is the 13th foal I've bred). The filly is big, very correct, and good, solid bone. I was at another farm looking at stallions and the farm owner told me he heard from a consignor that had seen my filly that she was the best looking filly he had seen this year.