Invasor [ARG]
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Al Faatik wasn't pressured in his race, he was doing the pressuring, trying to regain the lead. He finally got his rival but both of them were passed in the stretch. It happens when front runners go at it. So he doesn't need the lead, once he's involved he battles on. That looks good. But I looked at his other mile race and he lugged out on the first turn - is it a tendency?
Photon ran 3d at a mile & 70 at Aqueduct. This was another Aqueduct race with a front runner loose on the lead setting a "comfortable pace", too bad for the closers. Photon was in 3d most of the race, he tracked inside and at the end had increased his advantage over the rest of the field to 4 lengths without catching the first two.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA7.pdf
The Aqueduct inner track seems to favor front runners that control the pace and don't tire leaving horses unable to close. When Photon is back in form I hope they run him longer to counter this. US trainers think a horse shows he wants to run longer only by closing well at shorter distances. Not necessarily. A high cruising speed without much closing kick will work quite well at longer distances (the horse looks like a grinder). Ausus developed her closing kick in the middle of her 4th year and it surprised her trainer. When Photon was that age he went off form, probably due to Richard Dutrow's regime of running him on a couple of day's rest. Maybe, if no permanent harm was done, he'll resume development now? He passed $200,000 in earnings today.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA7.pdf
The Aqueduct inner track seems to favor front runners that control the pace and don't tire leaving horses unable to close. When Photon is back in form I hope they run him longer to counter this. US trainers think a horse shows he wants to run longer only by closing well at shorter distances. Not necessarily. A high cruising speed without much closing kick will work quite well at longer distances (the horse looks like a grinder). Ausus developed her closing kick in the middle of her 4th year and it surprised her trainer. When Photon was that age he went off form, probably due to Richard Dutrow's regime of running him on a couple of day's rest. Maybe, if no permanent harm was done, he'll resume development now? He passed $200,000 in earnings today.
Aniar made his racing debut at 2 in a 7f MSW on the dirt at Churchill Downs. He was outrun early, ran 3 wide the whole way and finished 7th of 12. He was one of 2 that ran without Lasix, worth a few lengths, but he seems to lack early speed, and those develop slowly. His dam won her debut at 7f on synthetic at Woodbine - in December of her 3d year. Also slow to develop. She's by Dixieland Band, Aniar may be a grass horse.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA8.pdf
Here's his profile:
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA8.pdf
Here's his profile:
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Invasor could be a very successful sire in South America
Candy Stripes, Invasor's sire, was a very successful sire in South America but not in the USA. His record as a sire in the USA is strikingly similar to Invasor's record so far. This similarity suggests that Invasor's potential as a sire in South America shouldn't be judged by his performance as a sire in the US so far. If Candy Stripes had only sired horses in the US we would never have seen his best progeny, including US champion Invasor!
Here is a comparison between Candy Stripes' 1998 crop (the first where he produced more than 1 or 2 USA progeny) and Invasor's first crop at the end of their 4th year. The data is from Equibase. Of course Candy Stripes' 1998 crop raced more years. To compensate I didn't include horses as winners if their first win was at 5 or older and I didn't count a stakes win for a horse that ran in a stakes for the first time at 7 - and won (at 1 3/8 miles).
Candy Stripes' 1998 crop vs Invasor's 2009 crop through their 4th year.
Horses that raced in the USA
Candy Stripes 27, Invasor 31
Winners
Candy Stripes 15 (56%), Invasor 18 (58%)
Graded Stakes winners
Candy Stripes 0, Invasor 1 G3 winner (Ausus at 4 on turf, also G1 placed)
(However, Candy Stripes' Canadian filly Sweetest Thing won a G3 in the USA at 4 as well as in Canada at 3 - like Ausus , a turf filly also multiple G2 & G3 placed)
Listed Stakes winners
Candy Stripes 2 (Accelerant at 3 and Desiraes My Candy at 4 on turf), Invasor 1 (Saint Arthur at 3)
Listed stakes placed
Candy Stripes 2 (Homem Ra, Rocinante), Invasor 3 (Midnight Vader, Expression, Cheechako)
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Here is a comparison between Candy Stripes' 1998 crop (the first where he produced more than 1 or 2 USA progeny) and Invasor's first crop at the end of their 4th year. The data is from Equibase. Of course Candy Stripes' 1998 crop raced more years. To compensate I didn't include horses as winners if their first win was at 5 or older and I didn't count a stakes win for a horse that ran in a stakes for the first time at 7 - and won (at 1 3/8 miles).
Candy Stripes' 1998 crop vs Invasor's 2009 crop through their 4th year.
Horses that raced in the USA
Candy Stripes 27, Invasor 31
Winners
Candy Stripes 15 (56%), Invasor 18 (58%)
Graded Stakes winners
Candy Stripes 0, Invasor 1 G3 winner (Ausus at 4 on turf, also G1 placed)
(However, Candy Stripes' Canadian filly Sweetest Thing won a G3 in the USA at 4 as well as in Canada at 3 - like Ausus , a turf filly also multiple G2 & G3 placed)
Listed Stakes winners
Candy Stripes 2 (Accelerant at 3 and Desiraes My Candy at 4 on turf), Invasor 1 (Saint Arthur at 3)
Listed stakes placed
Candy Stripes 2 (Homem Ra, Rocinante), Invasor 3 (Midnight Vader, Expression, Cheechako)
[/b]
Holy Invader ran in a $25,000 optional claimer at Aqueduct for a tag. He raced only once before at Aqueduct and it was his worst race ever, finished last at a mile, beaten by double digits. Well, today he finished last at a mile, beaten 15 1/2 lengths. Deja vu all over again!
Aqueduct 12/31/2011
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=3
Aqueduct 12/13/2013
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA5.pdf
He was claimed by a fairly new trainer, stabled at Aqueduct. Too bad Holy Invader seems to hate the inner track, which is used for the winter meet. Never worse than 4th elsewhere.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Maybe his new trainer ships him to Parx, then maybe he puts him in longer races on turf, where he ran his best race at 1 1/2 miles. Or maybe he tries sprinting him on the Aqueduct inner track and Holy Invader ends up in cheap claimers. Bets, anyone?
Holy Invader on paper has so much potential. Something is wrong with him or his connections don't think much.
Aqueduct 12/31/2011
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=3
Aqueduct 12/13/2013
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA5.pdf
He was claimed by a fairly new trainer, stabled at Aqueduct. Too bad Holy Invader seems to hate the inner track, which is used for the winter meet. Never worse than 4th elsewhere.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Maybe his new trainer ships him to Parx, then maybe he puts him in longer races on turf, where he ran his best race at 1 1/2 miles. Or maybe he tries sprinting him on the Aqueduct inner track and Holy Invader ends up in cheap claimers. Bets, anyone?
Holy Invader on paper has so much potential. Something is wrong with him or his connections don't think much.
Muzu wins on dirt! He won at a mile & 70 by 1 1/2 lengths at Fair Grounds in his 3d race. In his first 2 races at 1 1/16 on turf and 6.5f on synthetic at Arlington he finished 9th and 5th (last and next to last), done early. In this race he was aided by first time Lasix and it was a claimer, not an MSW. But on turf and synthetic he was outrun and never closed at all, on dirt he broke last and had the lead by the head of the stretch. A different horse!
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf
Here's hoping he doesn't run in another claimer. Muzu's dam was by Nureyev and G1 placed at Deauville, so it's reasonable to expect a turf horse out of her. But it is what it is and dirt may have been the decisive factor. He won well on his 3d try - how good is he? If he's claimed we'll only find out whether he's a sprinter or a miler. Shadwell will at least try him longer.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf
Here's hoping he doesn't run in another claimer. Muzu's dam was by Nureyev and G1 placed at Deauville, so it's reasonable to expect a turf horse out of her. But it is what it is and dirt may have been the decisive factor. He won well on his 3d try - how good is he? If he's claimed we'll only find out whether he's a sprinter or a miler. Shadwell will at least try him longer.
Tros has run 5 races and at 6f he's 2,0,0,0, at a mile he's 3,1,1,1. Today he was 4th in a 6f allowance yet again. He "lacked early speed" and "found his best pace late". The caller probably copied that over from Tros' last sprint. So now at 6f he's 3,0,0,0. Why is his trainer wasting this horse? He could be making more money and compiling a better record at a mile and probably longer.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf
Once a Week made her racing debut in an Aqueduct MSW at 6f today. She was 11th at 1/4, moved up 3 wide into the turn, came 5 wide into the stretch and closed on the outside to finish 3d of 13 on a good, not fast, track. The other 2 debutantes finished 12th and 13th. Once a Week is out of G2 winner Fortunate Faith.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA9.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA9.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
North Invasion won the Prix de Bretagne, a 3300m (2.05 miles) turf race over hurdles. She got the ground she likes: sludge ("collant") and won by 7 lengths. Of the 14 participants 7 didn't finish but none fell this time. She carried 68 kg (149.9 lbs). This is the longest race won by an Invasor and the most weight carried.
http://www.zone-turf.fr/cheval/north-in ... etaillees/
Here (scroll down to the heading containing Scandella) you can see a picture of North Invasion and her connections and view the last part of the race (North Invasion is out front, never challenged).
http://www.equidia.fr/live/reunion-de-preparatoires/
The Prix de Bretagne is the qualifier for the Prix Andre Messena, a listed stakes at 3500m over hurdles. Scandella, her trainer, says he'll see how she came out of this race but if it was up to him he wouldn't run her. Another Invasor stakes horse would be terrific but it would be North Invasion's 3d 2 mile race in 31 days, which seems a lot to ask so I hope he gets his way.
http://www.zone-turf.fr/cheval/north-in ... etaillees/
Here (scroll down to the heading containing Scandella) you can see a picture of North Invasion and her connections and view the last part of the race (North Invasion is out front, never challenged).
http://www.equidia.fr/live/reunion-de-preparatoires/
The Prix de Bretagne is the qualifier for the Prix Andre Messena, a listed stakes at 3500m over hurdles. Scandella, her trainer, says he'll see how she came out of this race but if it was up to him he wouldn't run her. Another Invasor stakes horse would be terrific but it would be North Invasion's 3d 2 mile race in 31 days, which seems a lot to ask so I hope he gets his way.
Saint Arthur finished 3d in a 6f $30,000 claimer at Aqueduct, beaten 8 1/2 lengths. He was the only 3 year old in this race. He went right to the front and was immediately joined by 2 others who both passed him by the top the stretch. He held off the rest for 3d place.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf
In his last race he was pushed really hard in a long, intense duel with a 4 year old which he lost in the final 1/16. He was passed earlier this time, maybe a hangover from the intense effort in his previous race, but 3d is better than 5th. In theory he should be about to take a step forward in his 4th year so it's disappointing to see him in a claimer.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf
In his last race he was pushed really hard in a long, intense duel with a 4 year old which he lost in the final 1/16. He was passed earlier this time, maybe a hangover from the intense effort in his previous race, but 3d is better than 5th. In theory he should be about to take a step forward in his 4th year so it's disappointing to see him in a claimer.
The Racing Luck of Banshee Brad
One horse in Candy Stripes' first crop sums up what I learned about racing from following Invasor's offspring. His full career shows how the capacity to run long can hide in a middling record at shorter distances. Sadly, it also suggests that some of my hopes for the horses we've been following are unrealistic. That's depressing.
Banshee Brad (53,11,12,10) raced into his 8th year. He was a late developing horse who finished dead last in his debut at 3 and was promptly tracked into a career in claimers and allowances, mostly sprints and miles. A useful but undistinguished horse that set a track record at 1 3/8 when he was 7, which still stands.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTra ... TAM&cy=USA
After flopping in his debut, Banshee Brad ran in MCLs until he won his 6th attempt at 6f by 4 1/4. Then he raced in a 1 1/16 claimer followed by 4 allowances at a mile, a mile, 6f and another mile to finish his 3d year.
At 4 he ran in 3 allowances, winning the last at a mile&70 (his 14th race and 2nd victory) to end the year.
At 5 he ran in 7 claiming races, winning 2 of them at a mile and a mile&70. He returned to allowances for his 3d set of connections, winning a Starter Allowance at a mile and an allowance at 6f for a total of 23 races and 6 victories. But by the end of the year he was back in the claiming ranks, having raced twice at 1 1/16 without winning.
At 6 he won 2 claimers at 1 1/16, his 7th and 8th victories. Two races later, he was claimed by his final connections, trainer Jane Cibelli and owner John Hewitt for $12,500. They had a different idea for Banshee Brad: turf.
He ran well on turf at Monmouth at 1 1/16: 2nd in 2 allowances, won a claimer and was 4th in a stakes. But he ran poorly in 2 races at Meadowlands before winning an AOC at Tampa in December to finish the year.
At 7 he ran in starter stakes. He was 4th at a mile and at 1 1/16, 2nd at 1 1/8. then he ran at 1 3/8 and won by 4 1/2 in track record time - on dirt, since the race came off the turf. You can look at it as a freak race in which he didn't beat much or as an indication that he was a router all along, not a sprinter or a miler. The performance of Invasors in Europe makes me think Banshee Brad was a router and we never saw his best. The European Invasors won more route races at 3 than sprints and miles.
After his stakes win Banshee Brad raced 4 times at Monmouth at shorter distances. His best finish was his longest race: 2nd in a handicap at 1 1/8 on turf in which he made his move 4 wide, gamely. At 8 he ended his career with 2 claiming races.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Trainers seem to believe only strong finishes in short races indicate the possibility of running longer. Not true! It also depends on how fast the horse runs early. Sprints have the fastest early fractions followed by miles and by 1 1/8 early speed runs out. Many young Invasors are grinders that are compromised if they run fast early and don't have a strong closing kick. That's why in Europe 3 year old Invasors have broken their maiden at 1 1/4 miles or longer on turf (North Invasion), on dirt (Adeem) and on synthetic (Kentucky Koin). American horses don't often get the option of running long.
Photon is (27,5,7,5) in better races than Banshee Brad's but, like Banshee Brad, isn't enough of a win machine to escape the sprint-mile rut. Brad escaped via turf, Photon has never run on it. Holy Invader, a miler (20,5,4,6), got his chance at 1 1/2 miles. He got loose on the lead and finished second to Amira's Prince who won 2 G2s right after. But it was a one time event, he's still a dirt miler. They both turn five in a few days. The only horse who was raced as a champion at 3 was Five Sixteen. His trainer threw the book out and entered him in the Belmont with only a maiden win at 1 1/8 (he finished 5th). He was a grinder who showed speed for the first time when he was 2nd in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga. If Five Sixteen had run at four...but he had the worst racing luck of all.
One horse in Candy Stripes' first crop sums up what I learned about racing from following Invasor's offspring. His full career shows how the capacity to run long can hide in a middling record at shorter distances. Sadly, it also suggests that some of my hopes for the horses we've been following are unrealistic. That's depressing.
Banshee Brad (53,11,12,10) raced into his 8th year. He was a late developing horse who finished dead last in his debut at 3 and was promptly tracked into a career in claimers and allowances, mostly sprints and miles. A useful but undistinguished horse that set a track record at 1 3/8 when he was 7, which still stands.
https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbTra ... TAM&cy=USA
After flopping in his debut, Banshee Brad ran in MCLs until he won his 6th attempt at 6f by 4 1/4. Then he raced in a 1 1/16 claimer followed by 4 allowances at a mile, a mile, 6f and another mile to finish his 3d year.
At 4 he ran in 3 allowances, winning the last at a mile&70 (his 14th race and 2nd victory) to end the year.
At 5 he ran in 7 claiming races, winning 2 of them at a mile and a mile&70. He returned to allowances for his 3d set of connections, winning a Starter Allowance at a mile and an allowance at 6f for a total of 23 races and 6 victories. But by the end of the year he was back in the claiming ranks, having raced twice at 1 1/16 without winning.
At 6 he won 2 claimers at 1 1/16, his 7th and 8th victories. Two races later, he was claimed by his final connections, trainer Jane Cibelli and owner John Hewitt for $12,500. They had a different idea for Banshee Brad: turf.
He ran well on turf at Monmouth at 1 1/16: 2nd in 2 allowances, won a claimer and was 4th in a stakes. But he ran poorly in 2 races at Meadowlands before winning an AOC at Tampa in December to finish the year.
At 7 he ran in starter stakes. He was 4th at a mile and at 1 1/16, 2nd at 1 1/8. then he ran at 1 3/8 and won by 4 1/2 in track record time - on dirt, since the race came off the turf. You can look at it as a freak race in which he didn't beat much or as an indication that he was a router all along, not a sprinter or a miler. The performance of Invasors in Europe makes me think Banshee Brad was a router and we never saw his best. The European Invasors won more route races at 3 than sprints and miles.
After his stakes win Banshee Brad raced 4 times at Monmouth at shorter distances. His best finish was his longest race: 2nd in a handicap at 1 1/8 on turf in which he made his move 4 wide, gamely. At 8 he ended his career with 2 claiming races.
http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Result ... registry=T
Trainers seem to believe only strong finishes in short races indicate the possibility of running longer. Not true! It also depends on how fast the horse runs early. Sprints have the fastest early fractions followed by miles and by 1 1/8 early speed runs out. Many young Invasors are grinders that are compromised if they run fast early and don't have a strong closing kick. That's why in Europe 3 year old Invasors have broken their maiden at 1 1/4 miles or longer on turf (North Invasion), on dirt (Adeem) and on synthetic (Kentucky Koin). American horses don't often get the option of running long.
Photon is (27,5,7,5) in better races than Banshee Brad's but, like Banshee Brad, isn't enough of a win machine to escape the sprint-mile rut. Brad escaped via turf, Photon has never run on it. Holy Invader, a miler (20,5,4,6), got his chance at 1 1/2 miles. He got loose on the lead and finished second to Amira's Prince who won 2 G2s right after. But it was a one time event, he's still a dirt miler. They both turn five in a few days. The only horse who was raced as a champion at 3 was Five Sixteen. His trainer threw the book out and entered him in the Belmont with only a maiden win at 1 1/8 (he finished 5th). He was a grinder who showed speed for the first time when he was 2nd in the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga. If Five Sixteen had run at four...but he had the worst racing luck of all.
Expression won her 6th victory in an AOC ($62,500) at 6f at Aqueduct and has now earned $271,394.This race started out like the others with a front runner who kept the lead all the way into the stretch but this time Expression, the 0.90 favorite, came from last at 1/4 and caught her a few strides before the wire. Score 1 for the closers.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA2.pdf
Spanish Invader was 3d of 7 in an MCL at Mountaineer. He was next to last at 1/2, bid between foes in mid streatch and got 3d near the wire.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA3.pdf
After finishing 3d at 1 1/16 on synthetic Al Faatik ran at a mile on turf. He broke 1st but a horse with more early speed claimed the lead and set faster fractions than the fractions in Al Faatik's last race. Al Faatik drifted out into the first turn (big improvement over bearing out or lugging out), chased the leader into the second turn, then stopped and finished last.
I suppose he was entered at a mile because he was losing ground to the first 2 in his last race - but that was the wrong fix for Al Faatik's problem. His problem in both races was going too fast fast early in a speed duel. Of course the fractions at a mile were faster and the result for Al Faatik was worse. What difference did turf make? The jockey knows. Al Faatik doesn't seem to run covered up, but fights on if near the front. He was competitive at 1 1/16 and could improve. If a fix must be made run him at 1 1/8 or longer. Most of the time the pace is slower and Al Faatik could be forwardly placed without exerting himself as much and have something left for the real running at the end.
3d at 1 1/16
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA8.pdf
last at a mile
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA6.pdf
I suppose he was entered at a mile because he was losing ground to the first 2 in his last race - but that was the wrong fix for Al Faatik's problem. His problem in both races was going too fast fast early in a speed duel. Of course the fractions at a mile were faster and the result for Al Faatik was worse. What difference did turf make? The jockey knows. Al Faatik doesn't seem to run covered up, but fights on if near the front. He was competitive at 1 1/16 and could improve. If a fix must be made run him at 1 1/8 or longer. Most of the time the pace is slower and Al Faatik could be forwardly placed without exerting himself as much and have something left for the real running at the end.
3d at 1 1/16
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA8.pdf
last at a mile
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA6.pdf
Photon won his 6th victory today at 1 1/16 on a muddy (sealed) track at Aqueduct. The 0.85 favorite, a 3 yo who was 2nd in the Broad Brush Stakes at 1 1/8 on a muddy (sealed) track, ran a winning race except that Photon got him late in the stretch to win by 1/2.
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA5.pdf
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pd ... 13USA5.pdf