Curlin

[Bobster]

Curlin was a spectacular horse on the racetrack, and now he is proving himself as a quality sire. He had a great year in 2014. Here's why:

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/01/04/l ... crop-sire/

[dublino]

Bob Curlin should be renamed Gelding a great year - you must have been drunk writing that article and I tell you that not having read it.

check out Curlins stats - where is the great year????

2 Graded stakes winners from 207 runners and 342 foals.

If you think thats a great year you are an idiot.

[Cree]

dublino, I don't understand why you think he should be gelded. In 2014 his stakes winners were Palace Malice, Moulin de Mougin, Golden Actor, Blue Violet, Miss Frost, Ol Donyo, Stopshoppingdebbie, La Grange, Diversy Harbor, and Please Explain. He also had the highly regarded 3-year-old colt Ride On Curlin. Yes, he only had the two graded stakes winners, but he also had a G1 SP, a G2 SP, and a G3 SP.

He was ranked #11 on the ALL sires list, and is the #1 ranked third crop sire in 2014.

You obviously have some sort of personal problem with him. But I think gelding him is just a little excessive.

I think his fee is a bit high - but there are horses below him on that list who are priced way higher. He is a HOY with a horse that looked like he was on his way to a HOY himself (Palace Malice), but was stopped on half way through the year.

[ct2346]

by the way, he's already BOOK FULL.

[Affirmed1]

Please excuse Dublino's rancorous statements.
Ever since our bitter breakup, he has not been quite himself.

[Heidilady]

dublino, I don't understand why you think he should be gelded. In 2014 his stakes winners were Palace Malice, Moulin de Mougin, Golden Actor, Blue Violet, Miss Frost, Ol Donyo, Stopshoppingdebbie, La Grange, Diversy Harbor, and Please Explain. He also had the highly regarded 3-year-old colt Ride On Curlin. Yes, he only had the two graded stakes winners, but he also had a G1 SP, a G2 SP, and a G3 SP.

He was ranked #11 on the ALL sires list, and is the #1 ranked third crop sire in 2014.

You obviously have some sort of personal problem with him. But I think gelding him is just a little excessive.

I think his fee is a bit high - but there are horses below him on that list who are priced way higher. He is a HOY with a horse that looked like he was on his way to a HOY himself (Palace Malice), but was stopped on half way through the year.

Don't forget Top Billing. Showed a lot of promise (and was graded stakes placed) before he got hurt and he's half to the dam of Bodemeister. Hopefully he comes back and we get to see what he's capable of doing. Right now he's been breezing at Payson Park for nearly a month. Curlin's capable of siring a "big horse" as Palace Malice indicated, but he's also capable of getting a horse on the TC trail which owners like. If you don't sire 2yo champ hopefuls right and left, at least get a horse pointing to the Derby on a regular basis and it makes 'em happy.

It'd be nice if Jess's Dream amounted to something (despite having the cloying name of a claimer at a 3rd rate track). I'd like him to for Rachel's sake, but Jess Jackson wanted to breed his two champs together. It'd suck if they didn't work as a pairing.

[dublino]

Look at the numbers 2 graded stakes winners from 207 runners - in nobodys book thats good.

I have often said I like a stallion but people say what onlt 7% graded stakes winners etc.

Curlin isn't even getting 1% graded winners to RUNNERS.

This is what is wrong with horse breeding in America right now people just don't want to listen to facts, yes Curlin was 2 times HOY yes he was the all time leading money winner yes he won the Dubai world cup and was world champion racehorse.

But and here it is he is, he is failing as a stallion.

[kimberley mine]

Dub, you and I have had this argument before.....

I do feel compelled to observe that at the same point in their careers, as early-ish 3yos, Smart Strike son English Channel was seen as a flop to run away from very fast. By the end of that year, he had 9 individual stakes winners including a Queen's Plate winner.

It's not looking good for Curlin but I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet.

and

You can't treat a horse whose get are going to be later-maturing like one who was an early 2yo and expected to produce the same.

and

Curlin's Northern Hemisphere Rankings

Rankings Rnrs Wnrs SWs SWins GSWs G1SWs Chief Earner Earnings
2014
#11 National
#11 Kentucky
#1 Third-Crop
182 100 12 19 2 1 Palace Malice ($1,195,000) $7,797,778
2013
#63 National
#3 Second-Crop
115 55 5 9 1 1 Palace Malice ($1,419,135) $4,327,813

Curlin is following the same pattern as both English Channel and Tenpins....they aren't all that great as 2yos, they wake up at 3, and turn it on at 4. Added Edge, one of the first Smart Strikes to go to stud and a really nice regional stallion, his best foals have all stepped up in about June of their 3yo year. For that matter, Smart Strike himself didn't start until he was 3, ran in optional claimers until midway through his 4yo season, and only then did he step up in stakes company. Dance Smartly was a champion juvenile but her best foals (Scatter the Gold and Dancethruthedawn) both started out well and then turned it on as late 3yos and up. Moreno, the most recent Gr1 winner from this family, stepped it up in July of his 3yo year and won the 2014 Whitney as a 4yo.

Among Smart Strike's daughters who are old enough to have graded stakes winning foals of racing age, you see the same thing....Deceptive Vision got her Gr-2 at 4. Eye of the Leopard's best win is the Queen's Plate, in June. Strong Return (JPN) got going late in his 3yo year and won his Gr-2 at 5. Shared Account started winning graded stakes at 3 in Saratoga and won the BC FM Turf at 4, and her 3/4 sister won a Gr-3 at Woodbine in August and ran well in Gr-2 company late into her 4yo year. Both Dixie Strike and Inglourious had 2yo talent and turned it up in June of their 3yo seasons. Euphony stepped up from listed level at 3 to graded at 4. And the list goes on.

So, based on the sire and produce records of Curlin's nearest relatives, it is utterly unsurprising that his foals turned it up a notch once they turned 4. Just like English Channel, his first crop (which started SLOW) now has 8% stakes winners. That's not bad no matter who you are. I expect that a few more good ones will pop up now that his oldest foals are 5 and now that his second crop are 4. This is what the No Class family throws.

Two side notes:

1. Smart Strike daughters are really producing.

2. The fastest way to get top-class juvenile talent with this family is Danzig. Holy cow, is it ever Danzig. Dance Smartly is the best example, being sparkling early on. Lookin at Lucky, out of a Belong to Me mare, was a quality juvenile who turned it on late. I suspect the influence of Danzig is the reason that, unlike Curlin and English Channel and Tenpins and Added Edge, he has some stakes winning juveniles right off the bat.

[kimberley mine]

Curlin isn't even getting 1% graded winners to RUNNERS.

BAD DUBLINO BAD STATISTICS NO BISCUIT FOR YOU.

Aggregate versus granular! If you lump all of his foals of racing age together, then yeah, it looks bad.

When you look to see what's going on there, then you see his first crop has 8% SW from foals, his second crop has 4% SW from foals, and his third crop has 2% SW from foals. (That's from his BH page, by the way, you can look it up yourself.) Steady increase with age? Like, you know, Smart Strike and English Channel and AP Indy for that matter? Like, they were better on the track as older horses and their foals are better on the track as older horses? Who coulda thunk it?

This is like talking about Giant's Causeway about 5-6 years back, back when none of the publications were separating out statistics from northern hemisphere crops and southern hemisphere crops. In the aggregate, he looked like a miserable failure. In Australia, he was a miserable failure. In his first two crops, he had 10% and 15% stakes winners, respectively, including two champions and a BC winner.

[dublino]

207 / 100 = 2.07 = 1%
2 Graded winners not = 2.07

Maybe we have different math in Ireland.

Anyways for what its worth Palace Malice is going to be a much better sire than Curlin.

Curlin's stats don't match up with regional sires 2 graded winners from 207 runners its abysmal by anyone's standards.

You can say all you want about late maturing whatever the stats are 2 graded winners from 207 runners, not even foals - its a joke for a stallion standing for that fee.

[kimberley mine]

You're right, I missed the two GRADED Winners. My apologies.

I also agree with you that he should be standing closer to $15k-$20k. I do not agree with you that he's a total bust at stud.

[dublino]

I have no problem being proved wrong and with the mares he has been getting he should be doing better.

My point about Curlin all along was what % of his racing ability came from genetics and what % came from chemicals?

I think his results are proving that he was an average horses who became a superstar by using steroids.

His results at stud are to my mind proving this.

He needs graded winners and G1 winners fast to justify being in Ky let alone America imho.

Lets come back to this next year and agree to differ again or maybe you'll come over to the dark side ...

[geowarrior]

Well on AEI vs. CI, Curlin isn't improving his mares, but I think Kimberley's point about improving stats with more crops on the ground is well taken. I liked Curlin as a racehorse and I hoped to see him do well. I think he's done well enough that he will continue to get good mares and the prospects for his future are good.

[Cree]

Ocean Knight looks like he could be any kind.

[Mac]

My take on Curlin is he is going to get some very high class runners but he ought to given the mares and support he has gotten. To Dublino's point, he hasn't gotten a huge percentage of graded stakes winners YET. When you compare him at this point to someone like Into Mischief, who can get a stakes winner from mating to almost anything, his stud fee doesn't make sense. But the trend he is showing is why he is getting slammed with mares, there are a lot of breeders that THINK Curlin is going in the direction of Smart Strike, or at least they are gambling on it.

If Curlin follows Smart Strike and English Channel, he will improve to 40% or better based graded stakes winners from total stakes winners on the mares he's getting and the leaps and bounds improvements his progeny are making as they mature. As someone else just pointed out, he jus got a new graded stakes winner today and he's got quite a few of them stepping up into graded company just recently.

I think one thing a lot of buyers and breeders dream of is a chance at a classic contender. So many stallions and sirelines in America are far too sprint oriented to give any of us that shot. Whereas, a lot of classic distance sires tend to fail because it takes their progeny too long to get out of the blocks or they are considered plodders, useful only for marathons. Smart Strike has just enough of Mr. Prospector's brilliance that some of them are actually fast at shorter distances, but they can also really stretch out. That might be why a lot of people are betting on Curlin.

Curlin might be trading on a lot of that, plus he's getting the good mares and huge support. But I would be afraid to bet against him having a solid percentage of graded stakes winners in a couple of years as his crops mature.