Preakness Probables

Post and discuss your picks and selections here.

Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Mon May 11, 2015 7:32 pm

Pletcher will announce his decision tomorrow morning concerning who, if any of his horses, will run in the Preakness. Carpe Diem will most likely pass as he is expected to run in the Belmont Stakes. Madefromlucky is also pointing for the Belmont. TJ

Cree
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2307
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby Cree » Tue May 12, 2015 8:58 am

Materiality will not be running in the Preakness, or Carpe Diem.
It looks like there will not be a Pletcher horse.

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Tue May 12, 2015 9:11 am

Hi Cree,
Yes looks like Pletcher has withdrawn all from consideration. The only one left to announce is Grand Bili. Early on the owners announced Stanford would run, but he still hasn't had a work since May 2nd. There's always a surprise or two come entry day tomorrow, we will see:>) Materiality, Carpe Diem and Madefromlucky are all pointing for the Belmont Stakes. Of note is Bolo...he will point for the Belmont Derby, an invitational mile and a quarter GR I stake on the turf July 4th. TJ

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Tue May 12, 2015 9:27 am

Another interesting tidbit being Lukas is en-route to Baltimore with Mr.Z. Zayat said you can't stop that man....but insisted he won't run?? TJ

Cree
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2307
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby Cree » Tue May 12, 2015 11:03 am

This whole Mr. Z thing is bizarre. Do the owners not have any control over their horses? Or do they leave it up to the trainer? In this instance, it looks like the trainer is out-of-control...and it's time the owner stepped in and maybe removed the horse from the trainer, or, put their foot down. Lukas is senile or something. He obviously doesn't see a horse that should be dropped a little in class to win something, or possibly freshened.
The Zayats seem to think it is funny. Would it be funny if Mr. Z caused AP to lose the next leg of the TC?

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Tue May 12, 2015 12:29 pm

Cree wrote:This whole Mr. Z thing is bizarre. Do the owners not have any control over their horses? Or do they leave it up to the trainer? In this instance, it looks like the trainer is out-of-control...and it's time the owner stepped in and maybe removed the horse from the trainer, or, put their foot down. Lukas is senile or something. He obviously doesn't see a horse that should be dropped a little in class to win something, or possibly freshened.
The Zayats seem to think it is funny. Would it be funny if Mr. Z caused AP to lose the next leg of the TC?

Hi Cree,
Back in the day, trainers would seldom stand for an owner putting in their 2 cents where and when to run....unless she/he had credentials other then a big bank account. There is a fine line to walk today between trainers and owners. Disputes arise, such as the one with Ramsey and Chad Brown. Chad Brown is a very competent trainer....but situations come up that cause problems. A good trainer knows what he's doing with his/her horses and usually has a plan to reach the big one. You know I'm not a fan of Lukas or his way of doing things....but he had a plan and made it work to get into the Derby. Does it look a bit abusive, possibly...but he actually ran a good race in the Derby that cried out for him to to run back in the Preakness. Going into that first turn he was destroyed and looked like had he found racing room, he would have set the pace (you have to watch the replay). His form cycle knocked him out of grace with many, but he ran well in his Derby prep and although he may not have hit the board in the Derby had he not been knocked around, he was ready to run. Don't forget he was a head and a nose off of Dortmund and Firing Line in the Los Alamitos Futurity....so he did belong, considering they finished 2-3 in the Derby. The Derby took nothing out of him with all the trouble he encountered and although he ran back in the Derby on short notice, he seemed full of himself early on. As a trainer Lukas would have to run Mr. Z back for these reasons alone. Given Lukas' style, it was a no brainer to run back in the Preakness and I expected he would. He's done things like this before and ended up winning at big prices in the big races. So Mr. Zayat stepping up and clipping his wings, should cause a break-up in this relationship. If Lukas gets really stubborn about this, I'm sure he could enter Mr. Z in the Preakness and look to run the horse...but the owner and trainer are eligible to enter as well as scratch the horse. So let's see what tomorrow, entry day will bring. A little theatre is always good for business:>) TJ

Aug27
Allowance Winner
Posts: 366
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby Aug27 » Tue May 12, 2015 1:28 pm

Lukas has won many big Grade 1s with runners who looked completely overmatched before ...
Much worse than Mr Z.
Compare his PPs with Oxbow, or Optimizer or Skyring.

Commendable in the Belmont.
Spain in the Breeders' Cup ...

That said, I do not see Mr Z winning this year's Preakness, but maybe an undercard race isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Cree
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2307
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby Cree » Tue May 12, 2015 2:57 pm

Hi TJ,
I recognize that Mr. Z had a terrible time in the Derby and didn't get to run his race. But, if this horse were to be the one that won the Preakness over AP, or caused traffic issues to AP (let's be honest, that could happen!), or AP were to lose because of something Mr. Z did... I can only imagine what these silly owners will have to say (and feel). It might be funny. I do think AP is a far better horse than Mr. Z. That's a given.
And you are correct Aug27, Lukas has won with lesser. I still find the whole thing bizarre.

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Tue May 12, 2015 3:13 pm

Aug27 wrote:Lukas has won many big Grade 1s with runners who looked completely overmatched before ...
Much worse than Mr Z.
Compare his PPs with Oxbow, or Optimizer or Skyring.

Commendable in the Belmont.
Spain in the Breeders' Cup ...

That said, I do not see Mr Z winning this year's Preakness, but maybe an undercard race isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Hi Aug,
He's done this so many times....Cat Thief won the BC Classic paying over $40 and on the same BC card Cash Run paid $67 winning the BC Juvenile Fillies. Most recently how can we forget Take Charge Brand going into the BC Juvenile Filles with terrible form only to win and pay $125. He's immune to odds because he overcomes them all the time. His major knock is it comes many times at the horses expense. I saw that first hand with Lady's Secret's final race at Saratoga bolting to the outside fence coming out of the gate in an allowance race. She was training the same way galloping she was so sore. TJ

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Tue May 12, 2015 3:32 pm

Cree wrote:Hi TJ,
I recognize that Mr. Z had a terrible time in the Derby and didn't get to run his race. But, if this horse were to be the one that won the Preakness over AP, or caused traffic issues to AP (let's be honest, that could happen!), or AP were to lose because of something Mr. Z did... I can only imagine what these silly owners will have to say (and feel). It might be funny. I do think AP is a far better horse than Mr. Z. That's a given.
And you are correct Aug27, Lukas has won with lesser. I still find the whole thing bizarre.

Hi Cree,
I agree with the fact American Pharoah is better than Mr.Z, though I didn't at all think about Mr. Z causing interference to American Pharoah if he ran in the Preakness. As much as I disagree with Lukas, he has an uncanny ability to know where his horse is at physically, even when it looks like the horse is totally over matched showing bad form. His style does end careers sooner then other trainers might, but he gets every once out of them when they are racing. Still can't wait to see who ends up in the Preakness entries tomorrow:>) TJ

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Wed May 13, 2015 7:45 am

I have to say, Mr. Z looks very good and carrying his flesh very well considering a couple fast turn arounds. This video from this AM as he gets his bath at Pimlico. He's a feisty son of a gun and two handlers are needed at his head....must be a meat eater:>) TJ
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ace-course

Lukas does want to enter, but he won't go against Zayat's decision which he's waiting on (he's in Italy), watch his video from Pimlico this AM. TJ
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... should-run

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Wed May 13, 2015 8:33 am

Still waiting on the final Preakness entries. Post positions will be drawn at 5PM eastern. They use the conventional pill method, so it eliminated much of the theatrics they employ at other venues. Here is the link to the post position draw, live feed begins at 4PM. TJ
http://live.drf.com/

User avatar
geowarrior
Leading Sire
Posts: 3593
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:45 pm
Location: Spokane, WA

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby geowarrior » Wed May 13, 2015 10:37 am

Per the Bloodhorse, Mr. Z bought by Calumet and entered in the Preakness.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91945/mr-z-bought-by-calumet-entered-in-preakness

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby TJ » Wed May 13, 2015 12:59 pm

geowarrior wrote:Per the Bloodhorse, Mr. Z bought by Calumet and entered in the Preakness.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91945/mr-z-bought-by-calumet-entered-in-preakness

Hi Geo,
Thanks for that. we have eight now entered in the Preakness. Post Position will be drawn at 5PM. Will add Mr. Z to the first post. TJ

User avatar
dublino
Grade I Winner
Posts: 1595
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2008 8:54 am

Re: Preakness Probables

Postby dublino » Wed May 13, 2015 2:26 pm

Strange move from a guy who is alledgedly a billionaire adding another horse to a field when he is taking up his triple crown chances and will look rather silly if Mr Z named after him bets or interferes with his horse.

An insanely dumb sale for a few $$$ - greed is a terrible thing, enter Karma.

I see AP has drawn post 1 and only 1 winner since 1960 Tabasco Cat in 1994 won from post 1.

Dortmund 2 and Mr Z 3 - carnage at the break and run to the turn with firing line drawn 8.
Edited by Moderator