140th Running of GR I Preakness Stakes

[TJ]

Here's the official entries and post positions. Will post the PP's as soon as I can. TJ

13th RACE. (C15) Post 6:18PM STAKES
The 140th Running of
THE Xpressbet.com PREAKNESS STAKES (Grade I)
PURSE $1,500,000 Guaranteed 1 3/16 Miles
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, $15,000 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, STARTERS TO
PAY $15,000 ADDITIONAL.

1 AMERICAN PHAROAH (L) Baffert, B Espinoza, V 126
2 DORTMUND (L) Baffert, B Garcia, M 126
3 MR. Z (L) E133 Lukas, D Nakatani, C 126
4 DANZIG MOON (L) Casse, M Leparoux, J 126
5 TALE OF VERVE (L) Stewart, D Rosario, J 126
6 BODHISATTVA (L) E51 Corrales, J McCarthy, T 126
7 DIVINING ROD (L) Delacour, A Castellano, J 126
8 FIRING LINE (L) Callaghan, S Stevens, G 126

[TJ]

Here's the past performances. Seems they are trying to block the easy way to see these pp's that are out there free on the internet. You will have to go to the Baffert link I provided, then click on American Pharoah or Dortmund for the Preakness pp's. TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... ummary.htm

[Cree]

I feel like Dortmund may turn the tables on his stablemate.
Mr. Z is probably going to gun it on the lead, right?

[TJ]

I feel like Dortmund may turn the tables on his stablemate.
Mr. Z is probably going to gun it on the lead, right?

Hi Cree,
Not sure how they will play it....I'm thinking they may take a page from Oxbow's playbook. Who laid second and stopped in the Derby after Palace Malice ran off and set a very fast pace. Then in the Preakness Gary Stevens put Oxbow right on the lead and he never looked back. Lukas knows if he lets either get away he'll be left with little chance to win....so I'd say he will go. But all three must go because of their post positions....especially AP from the rail and Dortmund from the two. It will leave Stevens in the catbird seat with no pressure, while watching how those three play out. It's a riders race and I think the smartest rider is Gary Stevens. TJ

[TJ]

I'm pulling the trigger early, here's my picks. TJ

Firing Line...he failed to switch leads in the Derby and that compromised his finishing kick. Stevens is outside his main competition and that will give him the edge he needs.

American Pharoah...If Stevens was riding I'd feel confident in him. There's something about Espinoza that's missing when it comes to taking charge when he's on the best horse. I still blame him for getting Chrome beat in the Belmont when he didn't commit him to the lead. If Victor puts AP on the lead and doesn't worry about Mr.Z or Dortmund, I believe he will win, if he tries to rate him...he will lose.

Mr. Z...Even though he's not my favorite trainer on the planet, I believe Lukas when he says he has Z right again. Handicapping is about finding a price and no one's better then Lukas with price horses. He's looking for his 7th Preakness win.

Dortmund...He could have bounced in the Derby off his strong SA Derby win, if he did I definitely have him in the wrong spot:>)

[Cree]

I'd love to see Firing Line win it. I think he has a real shot too.

[Georgerz]

Divining Rod, Firing Line, Mr. Z

[dublino]

Well done TJ four picks in a 8 runner field, you never fail to make me chuckle...

[Aug27]

Here's something interesting to consider when making your wagers:
In looking at the results of Grade 1 Stakes races over a two year period, the horse who finished 2nd's Place mutuel was higher than the winner's Win mutuel nearly one-third of the time.
This was the case in 74 of 228 races I analyzed, with the average Place mutuel paying $10.64.
For the 154 'normal scenarios', where the Win $ was >= the Place $, the average Place mutuel was $5.29.

For example, in the 2014 Derby California Chrome paid $7.00 to Win while Commanding Curve paid $31.80 to Place.

With that in mind, maybe the way to bet this year's Preakness is not a Win on one of the favorites, but rather a Place on some longshot you fancy?
Perhaps as a back-up / saver bet to a Daily Double (leading into the Preakness) with that longshot on top.

I'm thinking of playing a small Black-Eyed Susan & Preakness Double with Luminance and Include Betty (the two fillies exiting a Grade 1 with competitive speed figures) in the first leg with Danzig Moon and Divining Rod in the Preakness ... then heavier Place tickets on those two, if I'm live in the DD.

[TJ]

Well done TJ four picks in a 8 runner field, you never fail to make me chuckle...

Hi Dub,
Ya know I'd do anything to make you chuckle:>) I entered 4 because that is the way public handicappers in this country do it when there is a superfecta available. They are listed in order of preference. If Mr. Z grabs one of the exotic wager slots, there is potential for a decent payoff. Besides I could afford to spread out....I had a big night at Bingo:>) TJ

[TJ]

I'd love to see Firing Line win it. I think he has a real shot too.

Hi Cree,
When Stevens speaks you have to listen. He predicted he would beat Dortmund in the Derby because he learned how to after running with him previously. He said Dortmund gets strong when he's challenged so he laid off him in the Derby and ran by him without battling him as he did previously.
Now he said he didn't know why Firing Line didn't switch leads (causing him to duck in and tire when it counted), which was easily equivalent to the length he was beaten. He said he is perfectly sound and never did that before. His only thought was he got so caught up in running, he never thought about it....which I've seen happen on occasion....but usually not the norm. In any case, if there was an issue why he didn't switch, I'd have to believe they've been working on it and paying close attention to his switching in his morning gallops.
From Stevens position outside of what should develop into AP, Dortmund and Mr. Z focusing on what's happening with them and who will take the lead....Stevens will be watching it all unfold with no pressure on him from the outside. He has a clock in his head and if he thinks the 3 of them are playing possum on the lead, I'll expect him to realize it and may just go on with it the way he did with Oxbow. If there is a real pace up front he can rate and make his move at the head of the lane and possibly run over spent horses? Another positive is while he is watching whats unfolding turning for home, if Firing Line seems reluctant to switch he will be more prepared tp coax it out of him this time. It's like getting a jolt of energy when they switch to their right lead turning for home. TJ

[geowarrior]

I'm still mulling it over. The PP's aren't helping me much, except to eliminate. I have to say though I'm not a Mr. Z fan unless he gets another trainer who gives him a rest and sorts out his issues.

Dublino, don't they have superfectas in Ireland? I guess it's still the classic each way bet for you?

[dublino]

TJ

Geo the exotics as you yanks call them don't float my boat.
I mainly lay horses to lose on Betfair or back fixed odd's win and e/w with traditional bookmakers.

Oh if I were to do a bet right now I'd do a 3-5-8 combo tricast, I can see trouble for the baffert horses on the inside.

[TJ]

I'm still mulling it over. The PP's aren't helping me much, except to eliminate. I have to say though I'm not a Mr. Z fan unless he gets another trainer who gives him a rest and sorts out his issues.

Dublino, don't they have superfectas in Ireland? I guess it's still the classic each way bet for you?

Hi Geo,
Certainly isn't an easy race to predict, especially with the number of scenarios that could play out during the running. Georgerz pick, Divining Rod from Lael Stable of Barbaro fame, are in this and could show speed as well with top rider Castellano in the irons. Bottom line, it's hard to separate such perfection in this nice group of 3YO's:>)
I know how Lukas pieces his horses together....like he did with ex-claimer Charismatic, who broke his maiden for a tag, then won another for a tag 2.5 months before his Derby win. I believe him, even if I don't like his training methods....the idea for me is to keep my personal opinion out of it, as I did when I put him in the money against AP at 20-1...beaten just 3/4's for 2nd. Lukas is a dinosaur in the business and still carries a lot of clout, no matter what I think of him and his methods. This horse must run well or Lukas will look very foolish in making this move. TJ
PS....this was the video I posted, not sure if you saw it, but I believe what he said in it. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... should-run

[TJ]

TJ

Geo the exotics as you yanks call them don't float my boat.
I mainly lay horses to lose on Betfair or back fixed odd's win and e/w with traditional bookmakers.

Oh if I were to do a bet right now I'd do a 3-5-8 combo tricast, I can see trouble for the baffert horses on the inside.

Hi Dub,
Yes, there could be trouble coming from those 2 inside posts. Espinoza has to send his horse right out of the gate...I think that's the only chance he has. Though little doubt Dortmund's rider has to have the same thought. I'd like to know what Baffert will tell them, because if anyone gives Dortmund a fight on the lead, that's when he gets tough. Really gonna be one heck of a race...really think the race will be won by the smartest pin head:>)
Betting horses to lose on betfair hey? I'd bet you pick an amazing number of winners:>) TJ