Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[TJ]

Here we go again...Carpe Diem has been withdrawn from consideration in the Belmont Stakes. TJ

[TJ]

Here is the updated eight horse field of probables with trainers/riders after the two late defections. Official entries will be taken Wednesday, then later that day the post position draw will be held at Rockefeller Center in NYC. TJ

American Pharoah Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza

Frammento Nick Zito Mike Smith

Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin Joel Rosario

Keen Ice Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux

Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano

Materiality Todd Pletcher John Velazquez Ky.

Mubtaahij Michael de Kock Irad Ortiz Jr.

Tale of Verve Dallas Stewart Gary Stevens

[TJ]

American Pharoah and Keen Ice continue to impress. AP handles himself like a gentlemen and is willing to do exactly what the rider asks of him. He's got a great mind and he acts like his mind is melded with his rider, just a smart, amazing animal and eager to please.
I'm beginning to get the same feeling with Keen Ice....I think these two have impressed me more then any of the others I've covered in their training. Keen Ice will breeze tomorrow....can't wait:>)
Always was a bit of something that wasn't right at Belmont Park with Carpe Diem (Carpe Diem especially, not looking 100% and lathering up terrible in his last breeze) Materiality and Madefromlucky, also got a bit hot but not as bad as Carpe Diem who, as we know has been removed from the Belmont Stakes. Haven't heard about what Mubtaahij has done the last two days, would really like to know...though nothing at all negative in his training?? Truth or Else was also neglected in updates and another who scratched. The only other who seems to be going in the right direction all along in his training has been Tale of Verve. Off works alone it would be American Pharoah, Keen Ice and Tale of Verve....but I still need to see post positions and delve into the form before making a final decision:>) There's also a nasty, hush-hush rumor going around that there could be another scratch?? Let's hope this one stays a rumor:>)
Here's the work for AP this morning....absolutely perfect, so perfect I wish Martin Garcia was riding him in the Belmont Stakes....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oor5Fu2 ... e=youtu.be
Here's Keen Ice's gallop....another perfect gentleman, with another lead switch like he was reaching for the moon:>) He is looking like the Belmont distance will suit him just fine:>) TJ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBiTSGp3TRY

[Cree]

Thanks for sharing those 2 videos of Keen Ice and American Pharoah.
I love how eager and focused AP is. He looks like he really enjoys himself out there. He literally has wings on his hooves.
I want Keen Ice for cross-country. He has that long-winded and strong gallop that would be perfect for the sport

I am rather disappointed the field has dwindled down, but it didn't sound like Carpe Diem was really coming into this training well.

[TJ]

Thanks for sharing those 2 videos of Keen Ice and American Pharoah.
I love how eager and focused AP is. He looks like he really enjoys himself out there. He literally has wings on his hooves.
I want Keen Ice for cross-country. He has that long-winded and strong gallop that would be perfect for the sport

I am rather disappointed the field has dwindled down, but it didn't sound like Carpe Diem was really coming into this training well.

Hi Cree,
You're certainly welcome:>) Take a look at the other two vids of these two on the previous page....when Keen Ice throws an amazing lead change going into the turn. AP is a truly amazing animal and he may prove that a light, long and efficient stride trumps breeding. Tomorrow Keen Ice will breeze then AP and him will fly to Belmont. The way they're training they might get there faster if they run there:>) Baffert announced AP weighed 1,178 pounds before the Arkansas Derby...he weighed 1,186 pounds today. TJ

[Aug27]

The two defections this week bring the field size down to 8, which ought to "help" American Pharoah ... I read one odd stat that said none of the (prior) Triple Crown winners had to face more than seven opponents in their Belmont win.
Now the only 'obstacle' (negative trend) he has to overcome is this:
Every Triple Crown winner has had at least one prior race at Belmont

Here's something I found unexpected (unrelated to the above, but interesting -- and perhaps relevant -- for this weekend's Belmont): Gary Stevens has not won a Grade 1 in over 16 months.

[TJ]

Tuesday (6/2)
Belmont: Very cool for June (low 50's). The track is sloppy and sealed. 90% Chance of rain continuing today, then 40% chance of rain Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
Tale of Verve, Galloped
Materiality and Madefromlucky galloped about a mile and 3/4's.
Mubtaahij galloped in the slop this morning under the watchful eye of his trainer Mike de Kock who got to NY yesterday. de Kock was very pleased with what he saw as Mubtaahij was, in his words very "keen"....while trying to do more then his rider was asking for. He will work over the next day or two (according to track condition) his trainer repoted.
Frosted expected to gallop today, but no mention as yet? Will edit in when/if word comes down the pike.
CD: Track was fast
Keen Ice had a disappointing breeze (in my eyes) going a 1/2 mile in 50.1 with Tammy Fox on the bike. He went along in fractions of of 12.2, 25, 37.3 50.1 and galloped out five furlongs in 1:04.40. Of course not knowing the intent of the work, it may have been what they were looking for....just expected more from him today.
American Pharhoah walked today. Both AP and KI will leave for NY today...expected to be settled in at Belmont Park around 3PM later this afternoon. Wonder what they will talk about on the plane??
Saratoga:
Frammento is expected to gallop today, but no official word so far? UPDATE: Frammento is on his way to Belmont Park by van....about a 5 hour trip. he will train tomorrow at 7:30 am.

All the Belmont contestants are required to be on the grounds no later than noontime Wednesday. Entries will also be taken tomorrow, Wednesday 6/3. TJ

[TJ]

The two defections this week bring the field size down to 8, which ought to "help" American Pharoah ... I read one odd stat that said none of the (prior) Triple Crown winners had to face more than seven opponents in their Belmont win.
Now the only 'obstacle' (negative trend) he has to overcome is this:
Every Triple Crown winner has had at least one prior race at Belmont

Here's something I found unexpected (unrelated to the above, but interesting -- and perhaps relevant -- for this weekend's Belmont): Gary Stevens has not won a Grade 1 in over 16 months.

Hi Aug,
That's a well known stat concerning TC field size. What isn't as well known is that many of our TC winners faced very few other runners. Making winning their TC much easier in these small fields. Also accounts for the fact most were on or near the lead throughout. Less horses in the race equals less pace, an easier trip and less problems along the way. A fact certainly responsible for Chrome's recent demise. AP now will face the most runners any TC winner had to face. The only other two who faced 7 other runners were Seattle Slew and Citation who both won the Belmont wire to wire. Assault (stumbled at the start from the inside post, came from 4th position to win) and War Admiral (Won wire to wire)...they both faced 6. Affirmed (wire to wire), Secretariat (wire to wire), though the official chart shows him leading wire to wire at each point of call, Sham got his head in front between poles) and Omaha (shuffled back to 3rd at the start had to settle before commencing his rally from there) all three faced only 4 opponents. Gallant Fox (wire to wire) and Whirlaway (under stout restraint first 1/4 mile took the lead thereafter) each faced 3 others. Count Fleet (wire to wire) and Sir Barton (who beat the gate, allowed his opponent to take the lead, regained it as he pleased) these two TC winners only faced 2 other opponents. TJ

[TJ]

American Pharoah's flight, Tex Sutton's charter "Air Horse One" landed at LI Mac Arthur Airport at 1:36 EDT. AP and Keen Ice, Bayern and a few more will exit Air Horse One and board a van for the trip from Mac Arthur Airport in Ronkonkama, NY to Belmont Park in Elmont, NY. TJ
Update: AP arrived safe and sound at Belmont Park, Baffert was there to greet him and Bob was pleased with the way he looked and felt on the end of the shank while walking the shedrow. TJ

[TJ]

Wednesday (6/3)
Belmont: The track was sloppy after yesterdays rain.
Tale of Verve galloped an easy mile and a half...once around the big oval from the wire.
Materiality and Madefromlucky both galloped almost a mile and 5/8ths over the wet going.
Frammento simply jogged alongside his pony over the off track.
American Pharoah came out right after the renovation break, the track was still wet and AP was on his toes over the going. He jogged nearby his pony a mile and a half, prompting veteran clocker Welsch to comment....he even makes a routine jog look awesome.
Mubtaahij galloped but didn't seem to handle the going. He was on the wrong lead going down the stretch over the freshly harrowed off track. Will have to watch how he does tomorrow, the track should be better then and he is due to blow out a bit.
Keen Ice had a walk day after his breeze yesterday.
Frosted ?...he finally appeared on track at almost 10 AM...he jogged and cantered a mile and a half. A bit unusual considering galloping should have been on his schedule, but it's possible they were being cautious due to the track condition?

Will update Frosted when they let us know...I am starting to wonder where the heck Frosted is?
Entries are currently being taken this morning for the Saturday card and post position's will be draw later today at Rockerfeller Center in NYC for the Belmont Stakes.
The weather forecast for Saturday's Belmont Stakes has been updated to just a 20% chance of rain. TJ

[TJ]

Entries have been drawn and post positions assigned for the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes. TJ

Belmont Stakes (gr. I) $1,500,000 Guaranteed

1 Mubtaahij Michael de Kock, Irad Ortiz, Jr. 10-1
2 Tale of Verve Dallas Stewart, Gary Stevens 15-1
3 Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher, Javier Castellano 12-1
4 Frammento Nick Zito, Mike Smith 30-1
5 American Pharoah Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza 3-5
6 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin, Joel Rosario 5-1
7 Keen Ice Dale Romans, Kent Desormeaux 20-1
8 Materiality Todd Pletcher, John Velasquez 6-1