The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Post and discuss your picks and selections here.

Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby TJ » Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:45 pm

Friday's BC Races at Santa Anita Park. TJ

RACE 6 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 2:25 PM

Purse $1,000,000. For Colts And Geldings, Two-Years-Old. Weight: 122 Lbs.; $15,000 to pre-enter, $15,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 17% to second, 9% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth 1% to sixth, 1% to seventh and 1% to eighth; plus travel awards to starters not based in California. One Mile. (Turf)

1 Lancaster Bomber (KY) 2/C L1 S Heffernan 122 A P O'Brien
2 Keep Quiet (FR) 2/C L F Geroux 122 M E Casse
3 Channel Maker (ON) 2/G L J R Velazquez 122 D J Vella
4 Favorable Outcome (KY) 2/C L I Ortiz, Jr. 122 C C Brown
5 Made You Look (KY) 2/C L J Castellano 122 T A Pletcher
6 Big Score (KY) 2/C L F Prat 122 T Yakteen
7 J. S. Choice (KY) 2/C L K J Desormeaux 122 T A Pletcher
8 Intelligence Cross (KY) 2/C L R L Moore 122 A P O'Brien
9 Wellabled (KY) 2/C E T Baird 122 L Rivelli
10 Bowies Hero (KY) 2/C L J R Leparoux 122 P D'Amato
11 Good Samaritan (KY) 2/C L J Rosario 122 W I Mott
12 Rodaini (KY) 2/C L1 L Dettori 122 S Crisford
13 Oscar Performance (KY) 2/C J L Ortiz 122 B A Lynch
14 Ticonderoga (KY) 2/C L R Bejarano 122 C C Brown
AE's
15 Kitten's Cat (KY) (AE) 2/C L L Saez 122 J Sharp
16 Harbour Master (GB) (AE) 2/C L M E Smith 122 J M Cassidy

Click on J.S. Choice: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... mmary.html


RACE 7 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade I) POST TIME - 3:05 PM

Purse $1,000,000. For Three-Year-Olds And Upward. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 123 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. All Fillies and Mares allowed 3 Lbs. $15,000 to pre-enter, $15,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 17% to second, 9% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth, 1% to sixth, 1% to seventh and 1% to eighth; plus travel awards to starters not based in California. One Mile.

1 Vyjack (KY) 6/G L F Prat 126 P D'Amato
2 Tom's Ready (PA) 3/C L J Rosario 123 D Stewart
3 Dortmund (KY) 4/C L M Garcia 126 B Baffert
4 Point Piper (KY) 6/H L M Gutierrez 126 J Hollendorfer
5 Accelerate (KY) 3/C L T Baze 123 J W Sadler
6 Texas Chrome (TX) 3/C L C McMahon 123 J R Caldwell
7 Runhappy (KY) 4/C G L Stevens 126 L Wohlers
8 Tamarkuz (KY) 6/H L M E Smith 126 K P McLaughlin
9 Gun Runner (KY) 3/C L F Geroux 123 S M Asmussen

Click on Dortmund: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... ummary.htm


RACE 8 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I) POST TIME - 3:50 PM

Purse $1,000,000. For Fillies, Two-Years-Old. Weight: 122 Lbs. $15,000 to pre-enter, $15,000 to enter, with guaranteed $1 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 17% to second, 9% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth, 1% to sixth, 1% to seventh and 1% to eighth; plus travel awards to starters not based in California. One Mile. (Turf)

1 Hydrangea (IRE) 2/F L S Heffernan 122 A P O'Brien
2 Lull (KY) 2/F J Rosario 122 C Clement
3 New Money Honey (KY) 2/F L J Castellano 122 C C Brown
4 Spain Burg (FR) 2/F L1 L Dettori 122 K Ritvo
5 Victory to Victory (FL) 2/F L J R Leparoux 122 M E Casse
6 Coasted (KY) 2/F L M E Smith 122 L Gyarmati
7 Intricately (IRE) 2/F L D O'Brien 122 J O'Brien
8 Madam Dancealot (IRE) 2/F L1 J R Velazquez 122 R Baltas
9 Cavale Doree (FR) 2/F L F Prat 122 C Ferland
10 Happy Mesa (KY) 2/F L J L Ortiz 122 H G Motion
11 Rymska (FR) 2/F L1 I Ortiz, Jr. 122 C C Brown
12 La Force (GER) 2/F L R Bejarano 122 P Gallagher
13 Roly Poly (KY) 2/F L R L Moore 122 A P O'Brien
14 La Coronel (KY) 2/F L F Geroux 122 M E Casse
15 Con Te Partiro (KY) (AE) 2/F L J R Velazquez 122 W A Ward
16 Sweeping Paddy (KY) (AE) 2/F L R Albarado 122 D L Romans

Click on Happy Mesa: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... mmary.html


RACE 9 Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I) POST TIME - 4:35 PM

Purse $2,000,000. For Fillies And Mares, Three-Year-Olds And Upward. Northern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs.; Southern Hemisphere Three-Year-Olds, 116 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. $30,000 to pre-enter, $30,000 to enter, with guaranteed $2 million purse including travel awards of which 55% to the owner of the winner, 17% to second, 9% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth, 1% to sixth, 1% to seventh and 1% to eighth; plus travel awards to starters not based in California. One And One Eighth Miles.

1 Songbird (KY) 3/F L M E Smith 121 J Hollendorfer
2 Land Over Sea (KY) 3/F L M Gutierrez 121 D F O'Neill
3 Curalina (KY) 4/F L J R Velazquez 124 T A Pletcher
4 Corona Del Inca (ARG) 5/M L1 P G Falero 124 G Frenkel-Santillan
5 Stellar Wind (VA) 4/F L V Espinoza 124 J W Sadler
6 Forever Unbridled (KY) 4/F L J Rosario 124 D Stewart
7 I'm a Chatterbox (KY) 4/F L F Geroux 124 J L Jones
8 Beholder (KY) 6/M L G L Stevens 124 R E Mandella

Click on Land Over Sea: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... mmary.html

Shergar
Starters Handicap
Posts: 599
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 3:59 pm
Location: Idaho

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby Shergar » Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:28 am

Channel Maker in the Juvenile Turf @ 30-1 morning line looks awful tempting. He had some traffic problems in the stretch and finished full of run.

Shergar

DDT
Breeder's Cup Winner
Posts: 2021
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby DDT » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:20 am

For Friday's races I like the following:

Race 6 Juv male turf

6 Big Score (modestly bred runner with a big race over the track and distance)
3 Channel Marker (can get the money)
4 Good Samaritan (Mott shines on the turf)

Race 7 Dirt mile

3 Dortmund (looks hard to go past)
8 Tamarkuz (last was very fast for the distance)

Race 8 Juv fillies turf

4 Spain Burg (invades with a near perfect record, has done little wrong)
14 La Coronel (post only knock)
5 Victory to Victory (broke maiden in the G1 Natalma)

Race 9 BC Distaff

1 Songbird (has yet to be asked for her best but I not only believe she will win
I also think she is the best bet of the day)
8 Beholder (the one to beat at the distance)
5 Stellar Wind (has been on top against Beholder in her last two)

All in all the first day looks very good with the best to come on Saturday, good luck to all and may they all return safe and sound.

DDT

Aug27
Allowance Winner
Posts: 366
Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby Aug27 » Wed Nov 02, 2016 8:57 pm

I've finished my handicapping, and await the results of the World Series 'extra innings'...


My reasoning for this year's Breeders' Cup:
Using traditional handicapping techniques ("How will this runner do today, against this field, at this distance on this surface in his/her current form?"), I think the most likely winner for both days is California Chrome. The most contentious (and therefore races to be avoided, $-wise) are the Distaff, Sprint and Mile.

The other "most likely to run in the money" entries on either card are Carina Mia in the F&M Sprint and Lady Eli in the F&M Turf.
The rest of the races are open to longshot winners, in my opinion.
I hope Finest City (SAT r10 #12 @ 12-1) and Cowboy Rhythm (Fri r3 #7 @ 20-1) run well and outrun their morning line odds.
I plan to be on the lookout for any weird bridge jumper show pools in the Distaff or Classic and will bet accordingly.
(I.e., if Songbird or California Chrome show 75%+ of the Show pool, I will bet several other entries in the possibility something unexpected happens during the running of those races. I remember too well Victor's rides in the PA Derby etc., and how Shared Belief was mugged in the Classic -- Strange things happen, and the best horse loses more often than it wins, it seems.)
Otherwise, I hope Cornelio does well on his runner in the Juvenile, Three Rules. I've always liked him as a jockey.

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby TJ » Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:51 am

6th Race: BC Turf

1-Lancaster Bomber
8-Intelligence Cross
11-Good Samaritan
12-Rodaini

7th Race: BC Dirt Mile

9-Gun Runner
3-Dortmund
2-Tom's Ready

8th Race: BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

13-Roly Poly
1-Hydrangea
AE? 16-Sweeping Paddy
7-Intricately


9th Race: BC Distaff

1-Songbird
5-Stellar Wind
8-Beholder

kimberley mine
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1811
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby kimberley mine » Thu Nov 03, 2016 4:38 pm

Looking at these fields, every single one makes me wish we went back to one day of Breeders Cup races. The Dirt Mile is full of useful horses who aren't fast enough for the sprint and outclassed in the Classic. The Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf would be a better race if, like the Turf and Mile, were combined into one race with fillies getting a sex allowance.

Cree
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2307
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby Cree » Thu Nov 03, 2016 6:44 pm

Juvenile Turf:
Good Samaritan
Made You Look
Lancaster Bomber

Dirt Mile:
Tamarkuz
Dortmund
Gun Runner

Juvenile Turf Fillies:
Hydrangea
Lull
Rymska

Distaff:
Beholder
Stellar Wind
Songbird

User avatar
skeenan
Grade I Winner
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:40 am
Location: NH
Contact:

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby skeenan » Fri Nov 04, 2016 5:01 pm

Wow. Just wow!!! That was one of the best races I've ever watched... who would have thought Beholder and Songbird would be so close like that? It was a match-up I had hoped for, for a while now... needless to say, did not disappoint! :D

Cree
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2307
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby Cree » Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:09 pm

I have chills. She is amazing. They both are. But, wow, Beholder. I'm just so happy for her and her connections. What a horse!

kimberley mine
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1811
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby kimberley mine » Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:23 pm

The expression on Beholder's face in the gallop-out was priceless.

She threw so much shade Songbird thought there was an Eclipse.

Shergar
Starters Handicap
Posts: 599
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 3:59 pm
Location: Idaho

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby Shergar » Fri Nov 04, 2016 6:47 pm

That distaff was a race for the ages. Too darned bad one of them had to lose. Unfortunately Songbird was keyed on top for all my wagers.

Nailed the top two in the Dirt mile. Only thing I hit all day.

The two juvenile turf races were a puzzle to me. I was four & Five deep in my horizontal bets and didn't even come close.

Oh well, I hear there are some big races at Santa Anita Tomorrow.

Regards,
Shergar

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby TJ » Fri Nov 04, 2016 10:15 pm

Some great racing....Cree, looks like you did the best of those of us who posted. Nice to see Beholder leave the game a winner...she was primed and ready in the hands of her trainer who had her ready for her best....great horse and great trainer. Here's the replays of the first 4 BC races. TJ

BC Turf:
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

BC Dirt Mile:
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

BC Juvenile Filly's Turf:
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

BC Distaff:
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

User avatar
skeenan
Grade I Winner
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 5:40 am
Location: NH
Contact:

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby skeenan » Sat Nov 05, 2016 4:43 am

kimberley mine wrote:She threw so much shade Songbird thought there was an Eclipse.


Great way of putting it! :D

In case anyone didn't see the win photo... literally by a nostril! Too bad it wasn't a dead heat, they both deserved that win.
Attachments
IMG_6630.JPG
IMG_6630.JPG (181.75 KiB) Viewed 3039 times

Cree
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2307
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm

Re: The 2016 BC Races this Friday 11/4

Postby Cree » Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:36 am

So close! What a great race.