Beginner - Please help with my stallion selection

[Heidilady]

Yeah Madelyn, that's why I completely just threw up my hands. I decided I wanted to know more about it so I did a search here and read through that whole Werk thread from before. I had thought that since the nicks were right there, I'd see what happened when I looked at a few at random that were in the price range.

I too wasn't ecstatic over Parker's Storm Cat. There's a bunch of stallions out there that are sons of Storm Cat and are simply namedropping when their record on the track or in the shed is otherwise insufficient to pull in mares of quality. Relations of Storm Cat are a dime a dozen and plenty of them have done nothing, look like nothing, and have thrown nothing and are simply working the name recognition. Plus you get the potential bad knees.

Since the preference is $7,500 but as high as $15,000 for a good one, why don't we try to raise the bar above $5,000 since Lion Hearted is probably the best option there that's been mentioned on this thread with Oratory as a runnerup IMHO. Surely there's some good options out there for $7500-10,000?

[madelyn]

Actually I REALLY like this particular mare with Go For Gin who stands for $6K in MD. It's a nice doubling of Ribot, Tudor Minstrel, Flower Bowl through two sons, the doubling of Princequillo/Round Table that the family seems to like (see Northern Mist) looks quite strong. The awkward proliferation of somewhat useless Storm Cats and Mr P's in MD, PA, NY, etc., makes it a challenge to find this mare a nice match. However, I don't know about Go For Gin as a breed-to-sell sire..

[Morningside]

go for gin is very closely related to pleasant tap. for that price, i'd much much rather go with pleasant tap. neither of them has any commercial appeal, that's the problem

[topley]

Thanks for the posts and suggestions Heidilady. I appreciate you taking the time to research and respond. Mingun was interesting, King Cugat seems like he is in somewhat of a tailspin though. I will do some further research into Mingun.

Thanks Keith. Changeintheweather interests me. I had given him a quick look but I was kind of scared off by his move to PA. Seems to be a bad sign. Although we do keep the mare in PA so it would be a full PA bred (30% breeder bonus) which isn't a bad thing.

I appreciate the insight Morningside. I agree with some of your thoughts on Lion-Hearted. I had thought about what would happen if his next few crops flop. But there are couple things that make me feel positive about it. First even though he had a down year in some categories this year he is still getting 5% SWs, pretty respectable. Secondly I believe the quality of his mares increased after his initial commercial success. Regarding your logic on Oratory over Lion-Hearted, as you said in your neither is proven yet and Lion-Hearted could end up in KY in two years just as well as Oratory. I agree Oratory is nice and very well bred, I am not trying to say otherwise I just don't agree with your logic for choosing him over Lion-Hearted.

Regarding your assessment of the Parker's Storm Cat selection, you may end up being right about it but again I don't see your logic. First, young unproven mares to young unproven stallions is a trend that has been fairly successful at the sales recently, as documented in Blood Horse recently. Second there are a lot of lightly-raced stallions that have gone on to succeed as stallions. Malibu Moon, who is Parker's Storm Cat's half-brother, is a good recent examply. Secondly when PSC did run he ran well. He had three start in the US with one win and one second at Del Mar. He was a very promising runner from a great family. First two dams are G1 winners and his dad is Storm Cat.

Also from your comments I take it you are not high on my mare. I don't have to keep her. But I like her for the money and I think she has potential. I would rather learn the game with her before making a more substantial purchase. I would be interested in what others on the board think of her (Nicole's Dancer).

Thanks for you opinions I do appreciate them even if we don't see eye to eye on all of them.

[Morningside]

oh dont get me wrong, i have nothing against your mare, and i don't know anything about your mare's race record, etc. what i'm saying is if you sell her after 3 foals, there's nothing wrong with that, a lot of people do that, but if you keep her, and your first couple of foals don't do anything on the track 5 years down the line, your entire portfolio (your mare, your yearling, and your new foal) could suddenly take a big write-off... in other words, i'm just trying to help you make the most out of your situation, and i just happen to think you've got a great opportunity in oratory in MD, that's all...
in regard to lion hearted... 5% SW, that's nice, but translate that into absolute number and that's a total of 3 SW. but that has nothing to do with commercial appeal anyway. dynaformer was getting 10% SW with stud fee of 50K and then 75K, and he still wasn't really commercial until maybe 2004, and i'm still not sure if he's really caught on yet. all i'm saying is that lion hearted is not really KY material... and oratory could've been and may still be in the near future (darley stud still owns him)
i'm not trying to discourage you from breeding to him, but i'm just saying if you already know you want to sell the foal, you should try to breed her to a stallion that will get you a good price...

[topley]

I didn't notice that Oratory was still owned by Darley, that's good information.

Thanks for explaing your post a little further.

Can you just expand a little on the difference between the two (Oratory and LH) in your view? Is race record the big difference? Lion-Hearted appears to have a strong female family as well...

[Ryeno]

Hi Topley,

Just a quick observation.When i was looking at Daughters of Citidancer 2 of the better results i found.Real Quiet was bred to the Citidancer mare Hookedonthefeelin and produced Pussycat Doll who has made 280k.He stands for 6500$ in PA at Regal Heir Farms.There is another stallion named Way West(Fr.) a son of Gone West who was bred to the Citidancer mare Willalady and it produced multiple stakes winner Flamethrowintexan who has earnings of close to $400K.He stands for $2000k at O'Sullivan Farms in West Virginia.
Ryeno

[Morningside]

i dont think you need to compare the two stallions... you need to see how they fit your mare potentially and just imagine how the foal will sell.
you mention your mare is 15.3 and a bit short bodied, pulpit tends to give some size and i would imagine oratory would too. oratory broke the track record in the peter pan, and people will remember that flash of brilliance when his first crop hit the sales, and that's what makes a stallion "commercial".
i dont know what the lion hearted throws, and if he doesn't get a couple of big horses, he'll just be another "solid" stallion like citidancer or slew city slew

[topley]

Thank Ryeno. There was a lot of hoopla when Real Quiet was moved to be PA so I looked into him right away. When I looked into him it didn't look like is commercial appeal was that great at this point. Actually he is only $5K if you are foaling in PA which we plan to do so maybe it is worth considering. Like the quote by the way.

I guess the difference Morningside really comes down to going with a known, maybe lesser, quantity versus the higher risk/higher reward situation.

Any thoughts on Domestic Dispute as an option?

[madelyn]

Topley, one thing to consider is conformation. Before you sign on the line and commit to pay a stud fee, inspect the stallion and compare him physically to your mare to see what sort of foal you might expect. Real Quiet was summarily shipped out of KY after a very dismal start to his career, and is said to be extremely crooked.

He seems to be from a family of horses who couldn't always cover stud fees. The half sister by Latin American was sold as a two year old in training and that kind of sale cannot be compared to what her siblings brought as yearlings. Here is his dam's APR:

Copyright Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc., 2003


REALLY BLUE, 1983, Believe It- Meadow Blue by Raise A Native.
YRS ST WN PL SH EARNED SR SSI
1989 Silver Buckaroo,c,Buckaroo 2 13 0 0 0 70 ( 63) 0.00
North America 2 YO Record 8 0 0 0 70 ( 63)
North America Turf Record 1 0 0 0 70 ( 52)
North America Dirt Sprints 10 0 0 0 0 ( 63)
North America Dirt Routes 2 0 0 0 0 ( 50)
DP = 9-4-19-0-0 DI = 2.37 CD = 0.69
Sold at Hip # Sales Price Sire Avg Rank Stud Fee
OBSMAR 1991 417 $16,000 $24,500 2yo ( 4/ 7) $25,000
1990 Send Me A Bill,c,Spend A Buck Unraced
DP = 11-5-12-0-0 DI = 3.67 CD = 0.96
1991 Worth Every Penny,f,Spend A Buck 1 4 2 1 0 33,600 ( 90) 5.98
North America Dirt Sprints 1 0 1 0 4,200 ( 84)
North America Dirt Routes 3 2 0 0 29,400 ( 90)
DP = 11-5-12-0-0 DI = 3.67 CD = 0.96 AWD = 8.00
Sold at Hip # Sales Price Sire Avg Rank Stud Fee
OBSAUG 1992 40 $20,000 $17,981 ylg ( 9/21) $40,000
1992 Slipped
1993 Mining My Business,f,Mining 2 15 3 3 4 98,919 ( 99) 3.77
North America Turf Record 1 0 0 0 1,005 ( 74)
North America Dirt Sprints 10 2 2 3 70,910 ( 99)
North America Dirt Routes 4 1 0 2 27,005 ( 91)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 1 1 0 0 20,100 ( 91)
DP = 17-5-16-0-0 DI = 3.75 CD = 1.03 AWD = 6.67
Sold at Hip # Sales Price Sire Avg Rank Stud Fee
KEESEP 1994 1018 $42,000 $50,800 ylg (10/20) $15,000
1994 Beaming Belle,f,Alwuhush 1 1 0 0 0 100 ( 46) 0.05
North America Dirt Sprints 1 0 0 0 100 ( 46)
DP = 12-3-17-0-0 DI = 2.76 CD = 0.84
1995 REAL QUIET,c,Quiet American 3 20 6 5 6 3,271,802 (113) 74.86
North America 2 YO Record 9 2 0 5 381,122 ( 97)
North America Dirt Sprints 5 0 0 4 52,723 ( 90)
North America Dirt Routes 15 6 5 2 3,219,080 (113)
North America Muddy/Sloppy 1 0 0 0 0 ( 73)
DP = 14-12-12-0-0 DI = 5.33 CD = 1.05 AWD = 9.33
At 2 Won Hollywood Futurity -G1 (470,200), 3rd Indian Nations Futurity Cup
-L (571,548), Brown & Williamson Ky Jockey Club S -G3 (229,400)
At 3 Won Kentucky Derby -G1 (1,038,800), Preakness S. -G1 (1,000,000), 2nd
Belmont S. -G1 (1,000,000), Santa Anita Derby -G1 (750,000), San
Felipe S. -G2 (250,000)
At 4 Won Sempra Energy Hollywood Gold Cup -G1 (980,000), Pimlico Special
Handicap -G1 (500,000), 2nd New Orleans Handicap -G3 (534,400), Texas
Mile S. -G3 (250,000), 3rd Massachusetts Handicap -G2 (600,000)
Sold at Hip # Sales Price Sire Avg Rank Stud Fee
KEESEP 1996 1561 $17,000 $57,633 ylg (11/15) $10,000
1996 La Princesa,f,Latin American Unraced
DP = 18-8-14-0-0 DI = 4.71 CD = 1.10
Sold at Hip # Sales Price Sire Avg Rank Stud Fee
OBSMAR 1998 234 $75,000 $38,342 2yo ( 1/ 2) $2,500
1997 Barren
1998 Crown Me Blue,f,Majestic Light Unraced
DP = 15-3-8-0-2 DI = 3.67 CD = 1.04


Great racehorses do not necessarily make great sires. I suggest he had the heart to run "through" all of his problems, and had "magic" Bob Baffert helping him along. At $17K he was a helluva buy, but did he repay his breeder?

[Ryeno]

I guess thats part of the breeding game i dont understand.I look at a stallion like Real Quiet and i think he is a winner.KY has written him off but maybe to early?While looking at his offspring it appears to me that they may have started off slow but they are starting to round into form.Ive watched Pussycat Doll run via the simulcast and she is a monster.Bull Ranch showed up in my neck of the woods and ran second in our 250K BC Derby and proceded to win the BC Premeirs for older horses 3 weeks later,He also went on to win an open allowance race in Woodbine.Bull Ranch is a very well conformed horse.Also looking at Real Quiet's pedigree i noticed that he has had 3 sisters that have produced nice horses.His second dams production is week but his third dam produced Majestic Light so IMO there is something there?I always respect the opinions that people have on pedigree's because I am a novice at best.I feel I have learned a lot in a short time thanks to the many people on the board.The only thing that I wonder sometimes is people's perception on breeding when giving advice.I know it is most breeders goals to produce a a commercially viable foal or a homebred that will go on to big races but i have also studied the pedigrees of horses in the Keenland sales (Jan) Barretts,Washington and my local sale BC and i sometimes think i am more lost than when I started lol?I mean its all good to breed a well conformed mare to a well conformed stallion but what happens if the foal comes out more crooked than the Hunchback of Notre Dame?Whats to blame?I have trained a fair number of horses succesfully and I can honestly say the more crooked they are the better they seem to run albeit with problems.I have had 3 horses that I would consider very well conformed.They all were slower than mollases in January.Sorry to ramble but Im was severely confused looking at prices of horses compared to their pedigrees ( I wasnt at the sale so I dont know what they looked like).Horses that I thought had an average pedigree at best were selling for 100K+ and horses I thought had a great looking pedigree sold for 10-40K?Back to stallions our leading stallion in British Columbia is Vying Victor.He has had the most consistent numbers of solid racehorses here at our track.He is a fairly attractive horse but damn he throws the ugliest babies around!.Their are a few exceptions but the majority of them look like standardbreds and have big ugly heads and alot of them are crooked.In turn they dont sell very well for the most part but them ugly headed ,crooked legged Vying Victors sure seem to hit the winners circle alot.Colour me confused!

Ryeno

[madelyn]

That is part of the mystery. In fact, Topley stated at the outset that the object is to breed to SELL not to race. The sales yearling is usually expected to be BIG, good looking, correct, etc. etc. etc. Xrays.. throat scopes..

Regarding Real Quiet, there is no doubt about him as a RACEHORSE. What is, so far, in doubt about him is as a SIRE.

[topley]

Just wanted to stop back and give eveyone an update.

We selected Oratory and recently had a successful breeding to him. The thing that swayed us to Oratory was actually seeing him in person. He was really put together well. We also thought being part of his first crop would have some appeal commercially. We shall see.

As a further update our mare had Parker's Storm Cat colt on Easter Sunday morning. We are very happy with him and he seems surprisingly tall by all accounts.

I also just wanted to thank everyone who contributed their advice and opinions to this thread. When I went back and re-read the thread I was amazed how much effort and care people put into their reponses. I really appreciate it. Thanks again.

[Morningside]

good choice. i think you'll do well.

[madelyn]

Sounds like a happy ending.