Fasig-Tipton July
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
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Mood Swings
- Grade II Winner
- Posts: 1473
- Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:23 am
- Location: Ontario, Canada
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serenarider
- Allowance Winner
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- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 9:30 am
- Location: Ocala
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Hello Everyone,
I just read the recap of the sales in the Bloodhorse. There was a staggering 44.1% buy back. I'm relatively green when it comes to the ins and outs of auctions, so please beat with me. The answer to this question may be obvious, but I just wanted to throw it out there....What happens to these horses now? Do they put them in sales later in the year? Do they go up for private sale? or are they kept for the 2 YO in training sales? If they wait they wait until next year, will the market be more selective or saturated with 2 YO's?
Incite would be appreciated. Thanks
I just read the recap of the sales in the Bloodhorse. There was a staggering 44.1% buy back. I'm relatively green when it comes to the ins and outs of auctions, so please beat with me. The answer to this question may be obvious, but I just wanted to throw it out there....What happens to these horses now? Do they put them in sales later in the year? Do they go up for private sale? or are they kept for the 2 YO in training sales? If they wait they wait until next year, will the market be more selective or saturated with 2 YO's?
Incite would be appreciated. Thanks
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Hold Your Peace
- Allowance Winner
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- Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2006 7:12 am
A lot will be sold privately on the grounds of this sale where they just RNA'd.
In theory people think a reserve set by a seller is the minimum price the seller would accept, but that's not really the case.
When setting a reserve, the seller is fearing a situation where it's just one live bidder against their reserve (maybe there were several live bidders early on but then say after the price went above $50,000 maybe there was just one remaining live bidder and the reserve). So when the seller set their reserve they were playing a guessing game of how far might the last remaining live bidder go if it came down to that.
But if the seller were merely thinking about the bare minimum price they would accept to avoid taking their horse home they probably would have set their reserve lower.
It's also true that the last bid placed by a buyer might not neccessarily be the most that they were willing to pay for a horse. If they are bidding on a horse and getting matched bid for bid pretty quickly (and it might be another live bidder or it might be the reserve being bid against them) and say they bid 74k and the auctioneer quickly takes a bid of 75k from somewhere (or nowhere) even though they would have been willing to go a little beyond 75k the buyer might just say screw it and drop out of the bidding feeling like they're going to be outbid no matter what they do.
So, after all the psychological games in the sales pavillion are over with, and the results are posted showing that a horse RNA'd at 75K there will often be a meeting of the minds and that last live bidder might go back to the barn and offer 70k and get the horse (because few sellers want to take them back home). Or if the buyer really wants the horse (even though he quit bidding at 74k thinking he was going to keep getting outbid) and the seller is insistent on getting 80k the buyer may decide to go ahead and pay 80k for the horse.
If a private sale doesn't happen on the grounds, some large farms with a lot of yearlings will host people at their farms after the sale just to come look at all of their RNA's and hopefully make offers on some of them. And other people will reach out to various contacts trying to get them sold privately after the sale.
If you have an RNA at FT July it's too late to get them in most of the other major yearling sales (FT Saratoga, Keeneland September, OBS August, FT Midatlantic in October at Timonium) but you could still get them in the FT October yearling sale or a couple of smaller sales.
For the most part though if you can't get them sold soon after they RNA you'd better plan on sending them to a 2yo consignor who can get them into training in a few months and have them ready for a 2yo sale or plan on sending them out for breaking and training in a few months with the intent of racing them yourself.
Some people consigning yearlings feel like there is no way they can afford to put them into training and race them themselves so those folks will sell privately at fire sale prices. Think of the old expression "scared money never wins". Whereas others could almost care less if their yearlings sell or not as they have plenty of money and are more than happy to race anything that doesn't sell for the price they desire.
As far as how a yearling RNA will do at a 2yo sale the following year? There are just too many variables to make an accurate prediction. First and foremost it will depend on how the horse continues to develop physically and even more importantly for the 2yo sales it will depend on if the horse can run or not and post a fast work at a 2yo sale next year. And you also have to hope that going into training doesn't cause something to happen with the horse which will make him fail the vet at a 2yo sale next year. Then there's the mystery of a horse by a freshman sire. Let's say you had a yearling by Smarty Jones RNA at FT July. And you point him to the FT Calder 2yo sale next March. How he sells then will depend greatly on how Smarty Jone's first crop performs this fall. If a Smarty Jones wins the BC Juvenile then things are looking great for you. But on the other hand if quality winners are few and far between for Smarty Jones between now and the FT Calder 2yo sale next March you're liable to get spanked.
In theory people think a reserve set by a seller is the minimum price the seller would accept, but that's not really the case.
When setting a reserve, the seller is fearing a situation where it's just one live bidder against their reserve (maybe there were several live bidders early on but then say after the price went above $50,000 maybe there was just one remaining live bidder and the reserve). So when the seller set their reserve they were playing a guessing game of how far might the last remaining live bidder go if it came down to that.
But if the seller were merely thinking about the bare minimum price they would accept to avoid taking their horse home they probably would have set their reserve lower.
It's also true that the last bid placed by a buyer might not neccessarily be the most that they were willing to pay for a horse. If they are bidding on a horse and getting matched bid for bid pretty quickly (and it might be another live bidder or it might be the reserve being bid against them) and say they bid 74k and the auctioneer quickly takes a bid of 75k from somewhere (or nowhere) even though they would have been willing to go a little beyond 75k the buyer might just say screw it and drop out of the bidding feeling like they're going to be outbid no matter what they do.
So, after all the psychological games in the sales pavillion are over with, and the results are posted showing that a horse RNA'd at 75K there will often be a meeting of the minds and that last live bidder might go back to the barn and offer 70k and get the horse (because few sellers want to take them back home). Or if the buyer really wants the horse (even though he quit bidding at 74k thinking he was going to keep getting outbid) and the seller is insistent on getting 80k the buyer may decide to go ahead and pay 80k for the horse.
If a private sale doesn't happen on the grounds, some large farms with a lot of yearlings will host people at their farms after the sale just to come look at all of their RNA's and hopefully make offers on some of them. And other people will reach out to various contacts trying to get them sold privately after the sale.
If you have an RNA at FT July it's too late to get them in most of the other major yearling sales (FT Saratoga, Keeneland September, OBS August, FT Midatlantic in October at Timonium) but you could still get them in the FT October yearling sale or a couple of smaller sales.
For the most part though if you can't get them sold soon after they RNA you'd better plan on sending them to a 2yo consignor who can get them into training in a few months and have them ready for a 2yo sale or plan on sending them out for breaking and training in a few months with the intent of racing them yourself.
Some people consigning yearlings feel like there is no way they can afford to put them into training and race them themselves so those folks will sell privately at fire sale prices. Think of the old expression "scared money never wins". Whereas others could almost care less if their yearlings sell or not as they have plenty of money and are more than happy to race anything that doesn't sell for the price they desire.
As far as how a yearling RNA will do at a 2yo sale the following year? There are just too many variables to make an accurate prediction. First and foremost it will depend on how the horse continues to develop physically and even more importantly for the 2yo sales it will depend on if the horse can run or not and post a fast work at a 2yo sale next year. And you also have to hope that going into training doesn't cause something to happen with the horse which will make him fail the vet at a 2yo sale next year. Then there's the mystery of a horse by a freshman sire. Let's say you had a yearling by Smarty Jones RNA at FT July. And you point him to the FT Calder 2yo sale next March. How he sells then will depend greatly on how Smarty Jone's first crop performs this fall. If a Smarty Jones wins the BC Juvenile then things are looking great for you. But on the other hand if quality winners are few and far between for Smarty Jones between now and the FT Calder 2yo sale next March you're liable to get spanked.
clh wrote:And he looked spectacular Madelyn!! He really did shine. The Lion Heart/African Skyline filly didn't sell at $60K which is what we sold her for. She wasn't prepped well (in my opinion) and the guys walking and showing her looked like 4H kids. Am anxious to see how Honor's Even the Score does tomorrow - he has grown a bit and didn't look so long in the back like he did last year
Too bad I sold Anna K. - she sure does throw pretty babies. I hope her owners are following these sales.
Was the Medallist the one that Jimmy Chapman bought? My pal swears that no one can prep one like Jimmy.
I saw 311 go for $40K, so a modest profit I think.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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Avila Acres
- 2yo Maiden
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:44 pm
- Location: Ontario
Avila Acres wrote:Did anybody see #479 (by Grand Slam)? He's out of my stallion's 1/2 sister Catbaby and I'm curious about him and where he went. I see he was bought for $140,000.
There is a head shot of him on this thread http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/ ... c=27429.30
So were done. We got 6 horses:
65 CONSOLIDATOR/RISEN MISS
74 ACTION THIS DAY/SALT DE TERE filly
371 OMEGA CODE/RACHAEL'S RUMBA
408 INDIAN CHARLIE/STORMY SOCIETY
531 YONAGUSKA/HIGHER EARNINGS
562 VINDICATION/LONG STEMMED ROSE filly
If anyone has pics/thoughts I would appreciate. Tough sale, so good, some not so good. The Vindication filly has some decent pedigree, Action This Day filly has a light page, but physically nice.
65 CONSOLIDATOR/RISEN MISS
74 ACTION THIS DAY/SALT DE TERE filly
371 OMEGA CODE/RACHAEL'S RUMBA
408 INDIAN CHARLIE/STORMY SOCIETY
531 YONAGUSKA/HIGHER EARNINGS
562 VINDICATION/LONG STEMMED ROSE filly
If anyone has pics/thoughts I would appreciate. Tough sale, so good, some not so good. The Vindication filly has some decent pedigree, Action This Day filly has a light page, but physically nice.
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Mood Swings
- Grade II Winner
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- Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:23 am
- Location: Ontario, Canada
Mood Swings wrote:Hi dray, I am curious about the Omega Code - what is he like for size, substance etc. I have one and being from Ontario, he is the only one I have ever seen. Thanks
The only thing I can tell you is that Kenny bought him for me, said he trained a colt from the same family that went on to win big (I forget the name of the horse) and that this one is nicer as a yearling. I'll get pics and more info soon Mood...