KD 135 draw

[gunner99]

Watch out for Papa Clem.

[Aug27]

I don't think we can trust the speed figures for I Want Revenge, and here's my reasoning:

Look at West Side Bernie and Atomic Rain, and their BRIS speed figures.
(I don't trust Beyers at all!)

WSB's five races before the Wood were 95 (+/- 3), and AR's were 93 (+/- 3). Now, in the Wood, we're supposed to believe both of them improved 10+ points, to 107 and 103 respectively? I don't think so ...

The Gotham SR for IWR may have been legitimate, but I think the Wood # should have been closer to ~ 102 or thereabouts. That puts his ability in a whole new light, don't you think?

9F in 1:48 and 8.5f in 1:42. Those are the standards the winner ought to meet, imo. Not too many in this field have done that yet. But, we all know how 3YOs can improve dramatically at this time of year... The trick is trying to predict who is going to peak on Saturday!

[Playwithfire]

Let's not forget I Want Revenge is being guided by a relatively inexperienced 19 year old in Joe Talamo. Additionally he finished behind both Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem in prior races. Not what i'm looking for on the resume of a favorite in the Derby. He definitely can win, but i'm not betting him at those odds.

I really like Pioneerof the Nile given his stakes wins, and the success of the horses that have come out of his races. He's got the pedigree, top jockey and 3 time winning trainer. I also like Chocolate Candy as well if the pace is hot per usual to make a nice run down the lane as he was making up nice ground in the Santa Anita Derby.

[jrgators]

My only worry for IWR isn't Joe Talamo, remeber a couple of years back when I think it was Bernardini that won some impressively the wood, and you couldn't find him in the Derby.

Who knows....I don't think the best horse ALWAYS wins the Derby, often time it's the luckiest, best trip, etc. I think 8-10 of these guys has a realistic shot of getting the job done.

[jagger]

IWR reminds me a little of Brother Derek a few years ago who tore up the track in the spring but just couldn't make that last furlong. I predicted that he wouldn't even hit the board and he didn't. Also, IWR has dismal females on the dam's side. No KD winner in the last 10 years or so had such poor females in the first 4 generations. No other horse in this year's field has a female side as paltry as IWR. If pedigree means anything, it surely will in this instance.

[gmj828]

Agree on all counts, jrgators. When was the last time the KD winner came from The Bluegrass Stakes? Anyone?

Street Sense?? Or did you mean WIN the BG? SS came in second.

I love General Quarters in this race.
Friesan Fire looks very strong to me as well (DUH!)

That's my exacta box.

[wangkw]

This year the rose field is full of bugs and favorites one by one found the fire exit..but however bombed out it might be....there must come out
with an eventual winner and so also a triple crown hopeful...barring cancellation of this coveted race altogether.

Dunkirk now is as good as a Florida D winner going into the race...I Want Revenge is a factor worthy of reckoning too...Some here like
Chocolate Candy and Mr Hot Stuff..but personally I think when they are both present in the same field..they would become incompatible to
each other...joking of course.


The 2009 field is far weaker , or less predictable, than the one in 2001 or even 1997...this one not joking.

[jrgators]

The horse I was thinking of was Bellamy Road (sp?)

He had Big George with his suit and tie on, all ready for a picture, and he dissappointed.

I don't agree that this is a weak field, it's a very evenly matched group for 8-10 serious contenders, some long shots, and of course 2 or 3 head scratchers that make you say, "he's in what race!"

BTW, I can find no Oaks Coverage, anyone know who will be showing that tomorrow?

Thanks,
Theo

[karenkarenn]

I think TVG does

[docjocoy]

BTW, I can find no Oaks Coverage, anyone know who will be showing that tomorrow?

The Bravo Channel is showing it between 5-6 Friday.

[Georgerz]

I like Friesian Fire, Dunkirk, Hold Me Back and General Quarters, not in that particular order, but can't decide who will be first.

[lindsay_aggie]

I like Chocolate Candy, especially anywhere near 20-1. In my very non-expert opinion I think that several of the horses at shorter odds may have been used too hard in their last starts and bounce in the Derby.

Lindsay

[Roar]

May be run for the rose or first saturday in may this time 135 will be go to UAE

[jagger]

Huh

[Lisann]

My heart is pulling for General Quarters. If I were to place a bet, I'd lay money on Fresian Fire.