Breeders cup "dirt" mile analysis

[wangkw]

Before any big race..the last few runs (with some exception)..are often most unreliable...some runners already receive passport in hand
earlier and will be happy to finish in less suspicious mid-field.

But I deeply expect this "dirty mile" to be in the bag of your home team..only which one wins that bag...and QR's absence notwithstanding.

[going4stamina]

What stands out to me is that the only early speed in the race is Midshipman. Gomez can put him out front, build enough momentum and repeat his BC Juvenile win. I don't see anybody being able to go with him early--he could have fairly easy fractions.

He is not my favorite horse, or even who I think is the best in the field--I just think the race sets up for him.

[wangkw]

Midshipman brought Street Hero to his knees twice last year..raced once in 2009 in a small event which he won.

Some disliked his weakness in negotiating bends...the other power horse in the field must be the Whitney winner
Bullsbay, which led Macho Again 1&1/2 length home.

[bdw0617]

after todays races, i'm going to make 2 changes that I thought about while i wes handicapping this race

first of all, I had forgot that bullsbay come in 10th in the hollywood gold cup. he's going to have to beat me in this one, I dont' put money on known losers

this is a very weak race, and the best prep might ahve been the allowence race at santa anita a few weeks ago with mat track(grade 1 winner), el gato malo (grade 3 winner), bercrux (grade 1 placed), ALL on this track ,which is the most important factor, and neko bay won that race, and dit so very impressivly.

sherrifs pointed him to this race and at this point i agree with him. he loves the track, he's running better than he has ever ran

Also you have to look at fathest land in this race as well. GG got off him to ride pyro but I think that is more politics than antyhing. pyro has proven he does not like this surface but he's not going to tell godolphin i don't want to ride your horse either

Win - Neko Bay
Place -fatherest land /midshipman
show - farthest land / midshipman / mr sidney

[geowarrior]

after todays races, i'm going to make 2 changes that I thought about while i wes handicapping this race

first of all, I had forgot that bullsbay come in 10th in the hollywood gold cup. he's going to have to beat me in this one, I dont' put money on known losers

this is a very weak race, and the best prep might ahve been the allowence race at santa anita a few weeks ago with mat track(grade 1 winner), el gato malo (grade 3 winner), bercrux (grade 1 placed), ALL on this track ,which is the most important factor, and neko bay won that race, and dit so very impressivly.

sherrifs pointed him to this race and at this point i agree with him. he loves the track, he's running better than he has ever ran

Also you have to look at fathest land in this race as well. GG got off him to ride pyro but I think that is more politics than antyhing. pyro has proven he does not like this surface but he's not going to tell godolphin i don't want to ride your horse either

Win - Neko Bay
Place -fatherest land /midshipman
show - farthest land / midshipman / mr sidney

Now here we have some agreement. I also have both Neko Bay (who was also looking good in training) and Furthest Land in my top three, but I want to see more from Midshipman before I commit, so the third in my top three is Mastercraftsman.

[bdw0617]

"in the case of mastercraftsman, his dam sire was a damn good dirt horse, but so was george washingtons. I dont' think that's enough to overcome a sire whoose progeny absoluty dispises anything but firm turf (Danehill dancer) "

You seem to be overlooking his last race, clearly designed by A O'Brian as a prep race for the BC, when he cruised home by 5 lengths in a 1 1/4 mile G-3 race on the Polytrack at Dundalk, Ireland

As to RVW, See Steve Haskin's column in the BH today. Ignore RVW in the BC Classic at your peril.

lol