Postby Rokeby Forever » Tue Jan 22, 2008 9:39 am
Hiya, Horsenuts - you're saying that Rick Dutrow wins so many races and improves so many horses under a cloud of suspicion but Pletcher doesn't deserve a cloud of suspicion, huh? Then why did they BOTH serve the SAME suspension in 2007 for the SAME positive for Mepivicane? It's OK if one uses it but not OK if another does? Why should one have suspicion and another one not?
Let's do some simple math: I'm sure you'll concede that Todd Pletcher carries 200 horses at any given time (the number is closer to 250, but let's say it's 200). In 2007, Pletcher had 1,168 starts and 294 wins. That means that, in 2007, the average Pletcher runner ran 5.84 times and won 1.47 races. If Todd Pletcher said to you, "If I train 100 horses for you, they'll average 1.47 wins in the year of 2008," would you be impressed? With his stock, why can't he can't average at least six starts and two wins a year per horse?
Now, you might add, "In the summer, he trains a lot of two year olds." That's true - but what happened to the 200 horses now three year olds, 200 horses now four year olds, and 200 horses now five year olds? He doesn't run a claiming stable, so he's not losing his stock to other trainers - where do they go? Into thin air?
Let's hypothetically say that Pletcher won't carry a horse that can't run, so he carries only his best runners. So, if he can pick and choose which 200 he carries, why isn't his win percentage any better than 25%? Jerry Hollendorfer had a 25% win percentage in 2007, and much of his stock consists of cheap claiming horses. Guys like Steve Klesaris, Scott Lake, Tony Dutrow, Art Sherman, Bruce Levine, and Tom Amoss all had the same or higher win percentages than Todd Pletcher in 2007 (and in years prior), and they all run large claiming stables. Is it easier to win a race with a patched up $10,000 claimer than with a well bred, talented two or three year old?
I'm now seeing written that The Green Monkey was a mistake and his failure isn't Pletcher's fault. Then, why doesn't credit for the success of Pletcher's better stock go to the same people that make mistakes with horses like The Green Monkey? I see that none of Pletcher's owners won an Eclipse in 2007, so Pletcher gets all the credit and none of the blame, and Pletcher's owners get the blame but none of the credit - is that how it works? If I say to myself, "Coolmore made a mistake with The Green Monkey, so he's not Pletcher's fault, but Coolmore also bought Rags To Riches, so all the credit should go to Pletcher," does that make sense? If so, how?
You can't write that I'm bashing because all I've done is ask questions. If you would be so kind, please answer each one for me - I have an open mind. You're a smart fella, Horsenuts, which is why I enjoy writing back-and-forth with you...so I look forward to your answers.