The GSV the day after the Belmont Stakes GSV $Betting Fiasco

[George William Smith]

After my day small profit on the Belmont Stakes where I should have been able to buy a new car to replace my 1968 Ford 3/4 ton truck, I vowed to have a better day Sunday at Hollywood, if [??} the GSV would cooperate with the winning results.

In a study by a Welsh pedigree researcher friend of mine and to whom I supply my GSV numbers for his studies in return, of every maiden race in England in 2004, I noted that often the winner of a race had the second highest GSV. Preliminary results of that file which contains ~800 races [I got bored counting how many, sorry] composed of 9825 runners [some ran in multiple tries to break their maiden (excel file did the counting here)], shows the potential of a flat profit betting the two highest GSV scores both to win.

For several weeks I have had promising results betting the two highest GSV in an exacta box, but I have not done validation studies, just that my cash voucher has not decreased as normal when I am doing normal handicapping [lol].

So on Sunday, I decided to bet the two highest GSV numbers both in each race at Hollywood and bet them in an exacta box. Here are the results [***Remember this is just one day....definitely no guarantee]:

Race 1...Highest GSV wins, $10, 2nd highest is 2nd, exacta = $61.80
Race 2...GSV fails
Race 3...Highest GSV 2nd, 2nd Highest Wins, $8.00, exacta = $20.00
Race 4...GSV fails
Race 5...Highest GSV wins, $8.20, 2nd highest is 7th
Race 6...GSV fails
Race 7...GSV fails
Race 8...Highest GSV 2nd, 2nd Highest Wins, $16.40, exacta = $45.20
Race 9...Highest GSV 2nd, Highest GSV Wins, $29.80, exacta = $174.40

Results: $2 betting units
Highest GSV + a whopping 80 cents profit
2nd Highest earns $36.20 profit
Exacta profit is $265.40

If you have a subscription to Pedigree Online, the companion site of Pedigree Query, you can verifty these profits because they held even with the old 2005 numbers.

Not quite a new car, but at least pays the gas.

[Colonel]

George, I have followed your posts on GSV, and think its a valuable tool, along with dosage and conduit mare profiles. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I use GSV to evaluate the probability of a horse to carry speed a distance of ground, using a mile as my benchmark.

Obviously, you are using GSV as a handicapping tool for sprint races, also. How does GSV translate to Brilliance for shorter distances, and how is it evaluated as a handicapping tool.

Sorry if thats confusing, I'm not sure I'm asking the correct question

Thanks,
Colonel

[George William Smith]

Hi Colonel:
It just took me 6 months to do an exhaustive overall and update of the program that generates the GSV. So I have not done any validation studies by distance in quite a while. The program is biased towards stamina, so if it fails, it has usually been in sprints and pedigrees that are very obscure.

In the past, the GSV has been very good with maidens that have few starts and not much guide in past performance as to what has been or not given to them in the mating.

The GSV has been very good when the horse has shown that it is running to its high GSV and hence representative of what one would expect from the mating of such good parents.

The GSV is also very good at landing huge longshots which make up for a lot of non-winners; in other words, the horse runs to its GSV for the first time in quite awhile and lands in the winners circle at high odds.

I'm just flat betting whole cards, because I want to personally feel when the GSV fails and when it succeeds so I can get a better handle when to raise the base bet and when to lower it and when to ignore high GSV numbers as bad betting propositions. That's why I'm putting it out there so that people like you can adapt it to your own handicapping.

[Colonel]

Thanks for the response, George. Just for my own curiosity, I evaluated the results of the Sunday card. Here's what I found:

Hits

Distance

6 1/2 - 1
7 - 1
8(+) - 3

T/D 1/4
-----------------
Miss

6 - 1
6 1/2 - 1
7 - 1
8(+) - 1

T/D 0/4

Maiden Races

Hit/Miss 1/2

So, you hit 2, lost 3 in races under a mile, and hit 3, lost 1 in races a mile and above. It would be interesting to see the results on a larger sampling.

Regards,