Officer
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
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LaTroienne
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 9:57 pm
"Freshman sire Officer has been relocated to Taylor Made Farm for the 2007 breeding season after the Nicholasville, Ky.,-based farm acquired an interest in the stallion."
http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/ ... p?id=35747 Here
Owner decision, methinks....
http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/ ... p?id=35747 Here
Owner decision, methinks....
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CA Michael
- Grade II Winner
- Posts: 1258
- Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2006 2:32 pm
- Location: California
Foggytrip wrote:Gainesway Just purchased a stallion prospect from out of the country. Everyone will get to see this raw freak in the near future.
Who is he? (If you wanna keep it quiet at least say which Country he's from.)
-llbean
"What happened is merely a sample of what might have happened, weighted by probability."
http://www.venturageoscore.com/
http://www.venturageoscore.com/
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
I made a comment about officer in another thread sometime ago. I really like this stallion---I guess that means his stud fee will be going up---bad news for me. I was hoping to get to him for 15 k next year. I think he is a steal at that price. Now taylor made has someone to give Northern Afleet a run for his money. These two stallions will be awesome for TM.
best regards Brendan
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
well that kills my mating, I loved him at 15k but 40k doesn't work for my mare. I am not saying he isn't worth 40k ( I believe he is) but I like to breed to stallions before their true value has been identified and at 40k he doesn't represent enough value for me. As an example of what I mean, Five Star Day still stands for 15k and Northern Afleet is only 20k. Both of these stallions represent far greater value than Officer at 40k.
best regards Brendan
hi guys
To my way of thinking...Officer has NOT yet proved (and might never) that he's worthy a $40k stud fee. I suggest that such a bump is premature and unjustified...but I expect that Taylor Made (as always) could rationalize it.
I submit that breeding to sell for PROFIT is (in general) as tough or maybe tougher today than it's been for a long long time. I sense that a close look at the Keeneland Sept 2006 Yearling Sales Results might offer a very sobering REALITY...and might also indicate that a HUGE percentage of breeders are taking it on the chin.
We might agree that there are many risks related to breeding (in general). That said...when it comes to stallion selection, arguably it does NOT have to be a complete crapshoot...carrying VERY long odds.
With that in mind...I suggest that $40,000 for a 2007 season to Officer represents (right now) too many chips to play. He might some day prove to be good value at a $40k stud fee; but, if he does (become good value at $40k) I expect that at that time he'll again be bumped (prematurely and/or unjustifiably) to a higher stud fee...hmmm.
I recommend to breeders...when evaluating stallions, assess them honestly and thoroughly...and expect plenty for your money. Very simply...I recommend, that breeders make decisions that will enhance their chances for success while at the same time limiting their downside.
As for Officer though, I could NOT recommend him today at $40k.
That said, anyone that believes (after honest and thorough evaluation) that Officer (or any stallion for that matter) is the horse for them, should go for it.
Respectfully
To my way of thinking...Officer has NOT yet proved (and might never) that he's worthy a $40k stud fee. I suggest that such a bump is premature and unjustified...but I expect that Taylor Made (as always) could rationalize it.
I submit that breeding to sell for PROFIT is (in general) as tough or maybe tougher today than it's been for a long long time. I sense that a close look at the Keeneland Sept 2006 Yearling Sales Results might offer a very sobering REALITY...and might also indicate that a HUGE percentage of breeders are taking it on the chin.
We might agree that there are many risks related to breeding (in general). That said...when it comes to stallion selection, arguably it does NOT have to be a complete crapshoot...carrying VERY long odds.
With that in mind...I suggest that $40,000 for a 2007 season to Officer represents (right now) too many chips to play. He might some day prove to be good value at a $40k stud fee; but, if he does (become good value at $40k) I expect that at that time he'll again be bumped (prematurely and/or unjustifiably) to a higher stud fee...hmmm.
I recommend to breeders...when evaluating stallions, assess them honestly and thoroughly...and expect plenty for your money. Very simply...I recommend, that breeders make decisions that will enhance their chances for success while at the same time limiting their downside.
As for Officer though, I could NOT recommend him today at $40k.
That said, anyone that believes (after honest and thorough evaluation) that Officer (or any stallion for that matter) is the horse for them, should go for it.
Respectfully
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bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
FOS, I get your point but when a young stallion like Officer proves what he can do in the shed the cows are somewhat out of the barn---so to speak. With my system I can identify young stallions (sometimes) before the rest of the commercial market finds them---horses like Northern Afleet, Elusive Quality, Distorted Humor, etc, etc. A 40k stud fee may seem like a steal in 2-3 years from now for a breeding to Officer. He gets excellent numbers in my private system (which is why I made a post about him sometime back) unfortunately I thought I might get one more breeding season to him at a very attractive price----Taylor Made changed those plans for me. So it is off to another stallion. I have every confidence that Officer will prove he is worth every penny of 40K in the not too distant future. Those willing to take a chance may still get a bargain at 40k ----but only time will tell.
best regards Brendan
hi bcassidy
The flip side is that he might just as easily be stumbling or cold or even dying on-the-vine in 2-3 years.
Furthermore...breeders might be wise to pause and take a close look (for starters) at the 2006 Auction Sales Results (in general). It could prove to be an invaluable (and possibly sobering) wake-up call.
That said...I suggest that breeders should beware the sales pitch etc from those that stand to profit, whether the breeders profit or not...and should not lose sight of the fact that in the world of thoroughbreds, there's a far greater chance that dreams will NOT come true...than will come true.
Good for you in deciding that "it is off to another stallion" (your words). I suggest that others might be wise to follow your example.
Maybe he will...maybe he will NOT.
REALITY is though that if "in the not too distant future" (your words) Officer does NOT prove to be worth $40k, arguably many that support him at that level in 2007...could be destined for the cliff's edge.
In this highly competitive market, and taking into account how many breeders (in general) appear to be losing their shirts at the sales, I would NOT today describe Officer (at $40k) as a bargain (by any stretch).
Furthermore...a son of Bertrando that's out of a daughter of Septieme Ciel has to show me plenty more (than he has thus far)...before I'll be convinced that he's worthy a $40k stud fee.
That said...if I had to send a signal right now, it would be thumbs down at $40k.
Best to you.
Respectfully
bcassidy wrote: A 40k stud fee may seem like a steal in 2-3 years from now for a breeding to Officer.
The flip side is that he might just as easily be stumbling or cold or even dying on-the-vine in 2-3 years.
Furthermore...breeders might be wise to pause and take a close look (for starters) at the 2006 Auction Sales Results (in general). It could prove to be an invaluable (and possibly sobering) wake-up call.
That said...I suggest that breeders should beware the sales pitch etc from those that stand to profit, whether the breeders profit or not...and should not lose sight of the fact that in the world of thoroughbreds, there's a far greater chance that dreams will NOT come true...than will come true.
bcassidy wrote:...I thought I might get one more breeding season to him at a very attractive price----Taylor Made changed those plans for me. So it is off to another stallion.
Good for you in deciding that "it is off to another stallion" (your words). I suggest that others might be wise to follow your example.
bcassidy wrote:I have every confidence that Officer will prove he is worth every penny of 40K in the not too distant future.
Maybe he will...maybe he will NOT.
REALITY is though that if "in the not too distant future" (your words) Officer does NOT prove to be worth $40k, arguably many that support him at that level in 2007...could be destined for the cliff's edge.
bcassidy wrote:Those willing to take a chance may still get a bargain at 40k ----but only time will tell.
In this highly competitive market, and taking into account how many breeders (in general) appear to be losing their shirts at the sales, I would NOT today describe Officer (at $40k) as a bargain (by any stretch).
Furthermore...a son of Bertrando that's out of a daughter of Septieme Ciel has to show me plenty more (than he has thus far)...before I'll be convinced that he's worthy a $40k stud fee.
That said...if I had to send a signal right now, it would be thumbs down at $40k.
Best to you.
Respectfully