Theory: Top trainers top horses make bad stallions

[oliverstoned]

Let me take two trainers and "alleged" users of performance enhancing drugs. The beloved D Wayne and Nick Zito. D Wayne has trained such horses as Tobasco Cat, Criminal Type, Charismatic, Tanks Prospect, Commendable, Editors Note, Timber Country, Cat Thief, Is it True, Capote, Orientate, and Grindstone all abject failures at stud. He also trained Gulch and Thunder Gulch who some would say are successes but fail to move up their mares or sire a decent percentage of SWs. My personal favorite D Wayne trained sire is Codex who died young. I'll also mention the failed broodmares Lady's Secret and Winning Colors. Nick Zito has trained such illustrious future sires as Strike the Gold, Go for Gin, Albert the Great, Thirty six Red and Louis Quartoze. Now is this because of Performance enhancing drugs made them the best of their generation and if it had been a level playing field different horses would have won these races and inturn attacted the mares these guys got thereby passing on the truly superior genes. In other words are they failures because they really weren't naturally that fast. Am I on to something here? Now another issue is the surgically enhanced horse such as the the crooked legged foal Real Quiet. Is it really any wonder how he ended up in Pa.

[horsenuts]

When will people learn that what a horse does on the track has little bearing on what he will do in the breeding shed(see: Citation / Secretariat / Spectacular Bid / Alysheba). Drugs or no drugs until a stallion proves himself breeding to any of these unknown commodities is risky and why I suggest people breed to a proven stallion long before an unproven one.


As for Lukas and supposed drug use.... it didn't affect Dynaformer as a stallion... a stud that has proven himself over the years despite starting out modestly priced in the breeding shed after having come from the Lukas barn. I'll also go on record and say that Exchange Rate has shown himself to be a very nice sire(still early in his career but he has been outstanding thus far) and he to came from the Lukas barn.


Dash for Cash, the great QH stallion was trained by Lukas for a few races as well. Either the horse is a good stallion... or he's not and around 75% will be flops no matter who has them so beware.

[HR LLC]

Stallions fail all the time regardless of who trained them.

[Rokeby Forever]

However, Dwayne did train Terlingua...I think she produced a sire that did pretty well. I'm not defending Dwayne, but that's a filly that's tough to overlook.

Horsenuts - didn't Howie Tesher train Dynaformer?

[halo]

Capote was an abject failure??

[fastappy]

[quote="HR LLC"]Stallions fail all the time regardless of who trained them.[/quote]

Exactly! Racing ability is a highly inheritable trait and those successful families are so because they consistently produce runners. 85% of stallions (roughly) will fail in the long run as stallion, because the are unable to transmit their racing ability, determination (heart), or they pass on negative traits such as soundness issues.

There are many stallions who were recently discussed on this site who had great racing ability and were able to run (perhaps an abreviated career, Candy Ride, etc.) through their conformational faults, but it is unlikely, statistically), that if the stallion passes on those negative conformational flaws, that the majority of the offspring be able to run through those flaws.

[oliverstoned]

Capote 1.68AEI 2.32CI but I'll drop the abject for your sake. Of course there should be an exception or two due to the volume of horses the top trainers train and the quality books they get later. Yes most studs fail regardless of who trains them, it just seeme some trainers % of successful studs seem lower than the average.

[fastappy]

[quote="halo"]Capote was an abject failure??[/quote]

Capote was a B.C. Juvenile Champion, has sired earners of 48 million dollars, with 7% SW F/foals of r.a., 6% SP, avg. earnings per starter of 68K and median of 26K, 2 Champions, & 21 graded stakes winners, is a leading broodmare sire, .... I could not describe him as a failure.

I stand a son of Capote (Thisnearlywasmine) so naturally I'm a little biased, but the statistics do not support the jacket of "abject failure". Is Capote a sire of sires? The jury may still be out on that one.

[Rokeby Forever]

As Lukas Seattle Slews go, Capote beats Houston! LOL!

[oliverstoned]

Ok Ok Capote is a great sire but please look at my general theory. I'm not positive about it myself but it just kind of seems like it may be so. Don't know about you guys/gals but I'll be a little leery of future stallion prospects trained by Pletcher and Assmussen too.

[Sam]

Capote 1.68AEI 2.32CI

Do not be so stupid as to base your opinion of a stallion soley on his AEI/CI ratio. Barely 30% of stallions improve their mares and a lot of the good stallions have numbers like that.

[Maven]

As it was pointed out, Capote was a very good stallion.

Orientate is still young and unproven and has had some decent horses so far.

Timber Country has stood in the UAE. Hard to compare him to US stallions.

Is It True was a decent breed to race (nothing wrong with that). Was Yes Its True trained by Lukas? He's a solid stallion.

I would also venture to say that Tabasco Cat was no a failure at stud. He sired some good horses.

Boston Harbor was another sent to Japan too soon. He was a solid stallion. Like Tabasco Cat, I think there was just unrealistic expectations put upon them.

Tank's Prospect is a horse I love to see on the bottom side of a pedigree.

I would also add into the fact that 16 of his 23 champions were females.

[bdw0617]

Horses trained by D Wayne L ukas make bad stallions

fixed that for ya

[oliverstoned]

Capote 1.68AEI 2.32CI

Do not be so stupid as to base your opinion of a stallion soley on his AEI/CI ratio. Barely 30% of stallions improve their mares and a lot of the good stallions have numbers like that.

Well that was just an example, I could also used % of SWs or other things but for brevity I choose that one figure, I apologize. Granted I was a little harsh on ol Capote perhaps the term a little disappointing will go over better. Now as for my stupitidy well thats unquestionable!

[Rokeby Forever]

Capote 1.68AEI 2.32CI

Do not be so stupid as to base your opinion of a stallion soley on his AEI/CI ratio. Barely 30% of stallions improve their mares and a lot of the good stallions have numbers like that.

Sounds a lot like a Taylor Made infomercial. LMAO!!!!