my breeders cup classic analysis

[bdw0617]

First of all the more I think about it, I'm changing my tune on rip van winkle. he's a sucker bet and i'll tell you why


talent wise, he's probably a notch above most in this race. but he's a dead set turf horse.

the avg fan will say "well look what happened last year, the synethics arej ust like turf"

no they are not. synethics plays alot like turf, and yes, horses who generally like turf, generally like synethics, but make no mistake, synethics are a different animal than surface, and espically so than european turf.

last year how many horses did you actualy see come over and win synethic races? 2. the marathon race horse whoose name i can't pernonuce and raven's pass.


You should not compare ravens pass, even henrythenavigator and rip van winkle.

Raven's pass is by a sire named elusive Quality, a very american sire (sire of smarty jones, qualty road, maryfield and others) who has proven his offspring do take quite well to synethics.

henrythenavigor is by one of the best synthic sires on earth in kingmambo (he sired student council who won the pacific classic)


rip van winkle is by Galileo who is a dead set turf sire. in fact you have to go back 3 generations to get anything resembling a dirt horse in this horses pedigree.

If rip van winkle wins he is going ot have to beat me. i'm not banking on him carrying his form to the pro ride.


summer bird is just as much a sucker bet. the only reason we saw him here last year was because his trainer at the time, who was not tim ice but richard mandella, told the owners he could not handle the pro ride and he needs to run over a dirt track.

Mine that bird, the horse has won 1 race in a year, the kentcky derby. he ran here last year and came in dead last. he's going to have to beat me.


awesome gem just is not good enough

nor is bullsbay

nor is choclate candy

nor is colonel john



so let's get down to what I think are the real players in this race

zenyatta
einstein
gio ponti
girolamo
qualty road
regal ransom
richard's kid



zenyatta should be the post time favoriate. I keep coming back to the same question... she isnt' beating anyone. the socal filly division is pathetic and has been for a couple of years, she beats up on the same horses.

it's quite a jump from beating up on allicansayis wow to trying to pass enistin in the stetch.

not only that, she's going a mile and a quarter for the first time in her career.

I think she can win. she would not usprise me if she DID win but from a handicapping perspective, she has not shown me enough in her last races to warrant m e betting her on the class jump


einstein is a very good horse, and yes, he won the big cap but that was more of an indication of who he was running against them him being a top class synethic horse. his best surface is hands down turf. in fact i'm shocked he's not in the turf race.

I dont' know if he's a world class pro ride horse.

I ask myself the question. the winner of the BCC needs to be capable of running a sub 2 minute flast race. I dotn' think Einstein can.

Gio Ponti is the forgotton horse. he's hands down the best turf horse in the country, but like raven's pass and henrythenavigotor he's by a sire that has proven over the synethics (Tale of the cat, who sired lion heart, who has in turn sired a crapload of synethic horses). gio ponti himself won a grade 2 over this same track earlier this year and did so extremely impressivly. the distance is right in his wheel house.

girolamo is a very very good horse. he's by AP indy who can get a synethic horse, but he's got mr. p as a damsire and I think this one's best surface is going to be good ole dirt. that and he doesn't look like one that wants to go 10 furlongs. he struggled to me putting away kensei, a horse who if he was a legit classic horse, he should not struggle putting away. i'm not going to follow the hype

Regal Ransom is bred up and down to eat up this crap. In fact i think he will improve on the surface and he demolished the field in the super derby. with all that said, I still think his best distance is a 7-8 furlongs, not 10. i dont' think he will bre able to hold off EVERYONe in the stretch but I think he will suprise people. i'd put him at least in my superfecta tickets.

Quality Road is probably the best bred to handle this surface in this race. by elusive quality, out of a strawberryroad mare (one of the best turf horses in the 80's), in fact i'm shocked this is his first synethic race.

he's sitting on a big race as well, at least I think so. he's gotten better each race after the long layoff, he wasn't going to beat summer bird in the travers with his 1 sprint run.. and he's going to move up.

BUT i can't pull the trigger on him winning. but i would put him in my superfecta tickets

Richard's Kid is a synethic specialist, won the pacific classic, came in 3rd int eh goodwood. I dont' see a situtation where he's not in the mix, might even win it.


I'd go with the following

Win- Gio Ponti / Richard's Kid
Place -Richard's Kid / Zenyatta / Gio Ponti
Show- Zenyatta / Quality Road / Regal Ransom / Richards Kid / einstien
4th palce - Zenyatta / Quality Road/ Regal Ransom / Richard's Kid / einstien

[dublino]

I think you are spot on there with your summation.
I was thinking along those lines too, can't see any of the Euro horses making the frame this year either.

[geowarrior]

I certainly agree with you on Rip Van Winkle. One major difference between him and the horses who came one/two in last year's Classic is that RVW is not a closer, and there's always enough pace in the Classic for closers. In Rip Van Winkle's last race (about which there seems to be a high degree of controversy) he was definitely threatened by the improving Zacinto over a mile, and I'm not sure I buy into the argument that a mile on British turf translates to a mile and a quarter over So Cal Pro-Ride.

I think both Mine That Bird (second off the layoff and first time at a mile and a quarter since the Derby) and Summer Bird (still an improving horse) are threats to do well, although I'm not sure if either can win.

Zenyatta hasn't beaten much recently but she has beaten every top filly and mare in the country (except Rachel Alexandra and the up and comers such as Careless Jewel) over the last couple of years. She never does more than necessary, so although her speed figures and the class of her competition this year don't suggest that she'll even get into the trifecta, I wouldn't count her out. I don't see the distance as a problem either from a pedigree standpoint or from a past performance standpoint. Once she gets rolling she'll just need an extra few strides to travel the extra quarter mile.

Girolamo may be a good horse but he's young, relatively untried and can't do it in this field unless he's a budding Tiznow.

My conclusion? I don't have one yet except that the Classic, for all that people are saying it's an inferior field, actually seems to be the most difficult of the BC races to handicap.

So thanks for your helpful analysis, bdw.

[bdw0617]

that's another thing.

I don't think a mile does translate to a mile and a quarter.

hell both of them were bred to be distance horses (last year)

elusive qualty was a top flight miler but he has sired classic horses, and so has kingmambo.

zenyatta's move is not going to look anywhere near as devistating against this calibur of horse. she still might get there but there is not going to be anything "condecendingly easy" about it if she does.

[wangkw]

RIP VAN WINKLE
ZENYATTA
SUMMER BIRD
MASTERCRAFTSMAN
QUALITY ROAD
GIO PONTI
TWICE OVER
COLONEL JOHN
EINSTEIN
MINE THAT BIRD
RICHARD'S KID
BULLSBAY
REGAL RANSOM
AWESOME GEM
GIROLAMO

This is the latest order of favoritism as at yesterday.

I expect Zen's betting fans to weep over her saddle 2 mins into the race. Einstein is relatively too old. QR
surprised me not taking up mile. SB has a say...Col John is a wild card...MTB wilder. Pay fat if they hit.

European dream is on RVW...J Murtagh & RVW will make a reliable human-horse relationship..no chance
of RS..Frankie non-involvement tells something untold...that is why Mastercraftsman beats him on table.

[geowarrior]

Mastercraftsman isn't going to run in the Classic, though, his first preference is the mile.

[Worksoplad]

that's another thing.

I don't think a mile does translate to a mile and a quarter.

hell both of them were bred to be distance horses (last year)

elusive qualty was a top flight miler but he has sired classic horses, and so has kingmambo.

zenyatta's move is not going to look anywhere near as devistating against this calibur of horse. she still might get there but there is not going to be anything "condecendingly easy" about it if she does.

Well let me see: RVW ran 4/12 to STS (beaten 2 lengths) in the Epsom Derby at 1 1/2m in early June at 1/ 14m, and 2/8 (beaten 1 length) to STS in the Coral Eclipse at 1 1/4 m in July. He won the same last prep race, the Ascot QEII at a mile, that Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator(who both, incidentally had never run further than a mile on turf before the BC Classic last year) finished 1-2 in immediately before the BC Classic last year. What's not to like?

[bdw0617]

in an effort to critize you completely missed my point.


my point was, that I dont' think it was so much that a mile is necessary equal to 10F here is why Raven's pass and henry went 1-2.

I think they were both horses who were bred to run longer but becuase of compeitton and where they were located, were better fitted for 8 furlongs overseas.

ravens pass and henrythenavigator were both very much exepctions to rules that should not be applied year in and year out to euro horses. that was my point. not to try to demish anything that RVW has done.

I dont' think the distance is a problem for RVW. I think saying that saying it's not a problem becuase he run in the same races that henry and raven's pass ran in last year, is a problem.

I think the fact that he's by a classic winner has alot more to do with why he will not hae too much of a problem (although his damsire does pose distance limitations) than the fact that he ran in the same races as they did.

[Worksoplad]

in an effort to critize you completely missed my point.


my point was, that I dont' think it was so much that a mile is necessary equal to 10F here is why Raven's pass and henry went 1-2.

I think they were both horses who were bred to run longer but becuase of compeitton and where they were located, were better fitted for 8 furlongs overseas.

ravens pass and henrythenavigator were both very much exepctions to rules that should not be applied year in and year out to euro horses. that was my point. not to try to demish anything that RVW has done.

I dont' think the distance is a problem for RVW. I think saying that saying it's not a problem becuase he run in the same races that henry and raven's pass ran in last year, is a problem.

I think the fact that he's by a classic winner has alot more to do with why he will not hae too much of a problem (although his damsire does pose distance limitations) than the fact that he ran in the same races as they did.

In that case, you should have made your point clear in your original post, because that certainly is not the way it reads.

And, my point was, that RVW has already displayed his stamina credentials by running well in Classic distance races in Europe. I was comparing it to QEII 1-2 finishers, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator who had never run further than a mile prior to the BC Classic.

[geowarrior]

Both Worksoplad and bdw make good points, and I did understand what bdw was saying right off the bat. My original comment wasn't directed at anyone on this thread but at several analysts that I have heard or read suggesting that mile distances in Europe translate directly to a mile and a quarter in So Cal. I couldn't give you a specific reference but I do know that this isn't the first year that this idea has been bandied around.

[Mickey the Marcher]

Both Worksoplad and bdw make good points, and I did understand what bdw was saying right off the bat. My original comment wasn't directed at anyone on this thread but at several analysts that I have heard or read suggesting that mile distances in Europe translate directly to a mile and a quarter in So Cal. I couldn't give you a specific reference but I do know that this isn't the first year that this idea has been bandied around.

I think the logic behind this is that going a mile on an undulating European course with an uphill finish is as taxing and requires as much stamina as going 1m2f on a flat as a pancake US track. Plus some milers are genuine 10f horses too, Sadler's Wells, Brigadier Gerard, Giant's Causeway being well known examples. Obviously not all though, can't see the likes of Goldikova being competitive over 10f, she's a true miler.

The big disadvantage for any Euro miler on a US track, esp the turf courses, will always be the two tight turns. Look at most of the big Mile races in Europe, they are either over straight mile courses, or have one gentle turn.

[geowarrior]

I think the logic behind this is that going a mile on an undulating European course with an uphill finish is as taxing and requires as much stamina as going 1m2f on a flat as a pancake US track. Plus some milers are genuine 10f horses too, Sadler's Wells, Brigadier Gerard, Giant's Causeway being well known examples. Obviously not all though, can't see the likes of Goldikova being competitive over 10f, she's a true miler.

The big disadvantage for any Euro miler on a US track, esp the turf courses, will always be the two tight turns. Look at most of the big Mile races in Europe, they are either over straight mile courses, or have one gentle turn.

True Mickey. I did note that Rainbow View in the E.P. Taylor wasn't changing leads as smartly as the average North American horse, which is presumably related to what you are describing.

[bdw0617]

okay i'm revising my ticket. i can't justify spending money on einstien or richards kids when I look at their numbers. they just don't match up when you talk about the best in the world on pro ride.

einstein has proven he can't go any fater than about 2:01 and a half and that's aboujt a second too slow on this surface and richards kid is about the same

I really think it's gio ponti's race to lose wtih zenyatta making life very difficulot down the stretch for him

[dublino]

Have went for Regal Ransom e/w at a whopping 33/1.

[walaa]

Zenyatta, Richards Kid, Mine That Bird, box in a trifecta for me, might even have to sign up for some on-line betting