Haskin's Derby Dozen

[Bill from WA]

Haskin’s 2011 Kentucky Derby Dozen
(10/12 furlong stamina ratings)
(The lower the number, the more potential pedigree stamina)

1) Astrology (0.69)
2) Stay Thirsty (0.75)
3) Jaycito (0.86)
4) To Honor and Serve (0.91)
5) Comma to the Top (1.03)
6) Brethren (1.07)
7) Santiva (1.08)
8) Soldat (1.13)
9) Boys at Tosconova (1.13)
10) Uncle Mo (1.16)
11) Tapizar (1.19)
12) Dialed In (1.45)

These numbers do NOT reflect racing talent, but only indicate potential stamina ranges based on my Modern Conduit Mare research.



STAMINA INDEXES
AND INBREEDING PATTERNS (WITHIN 6 GENERATIONS)
FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS
SINCE 1972

2010: Super Saver (1.02)
4x5/5 Buckpasser
5x4 Raise A Native

2009: Mine That Bird (0.97)
4x5/5 Mr. Prospector
4x4 Northern Dancer
5x5 Nashua

2008: Big Brown (0.75)
3x3 Northern Dancer
3x4 Damascus
4x5 Round Table

2007: Street Sense (0.53)
4x4 Natalma
5x5 Native Dancer

2006: Barbaro (0.49)
4x5 Nashua

2005: Giacomo (0.87)
No inbreeding

2004: Smarty Jones (0.78)
5x5/5 Bold Ruler

2003: Funny Cide (0.83)
5x5 Ribot

2002: War Emblem (1.02)
6x5 Ribot
5x6 Aristophanes

2001: Monarchos (0.70)
5x5 Ribot

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (0.79)
3x5 Native Dancer

1999: Charismatic (1.00)
5x3 Sir Gaylord
4/6X4 Somethingroyal
4x4 Bold Ruler
5x4 Tom Fool
6x4 Polynesian

1998: Real Quiet (1.02)
4x3 Raise A Native
5/4x5 Rough n’ Tumble

1997: Silver Charm (0.65)
4x5 War Admiral
5x6 La Troienne
6x5 Nearco
5x6 Bull Dog

1996: Grindstone (0.84)
6x4 Tom Fool
6x5 Polynesian
6x5 Case Ace
6x5 Princequillo

1995: Thunder Gulch (0.44)
4x5 Native Dancer
6x5/6/6 Nearco
6x6/5 Hyperion

1994: Go For Gin (0.80)
5x5 Count Fleet

1993: Sea Hero (0.49)
4x4 War Admiral
5x5 Man O’ War
5x5 La Troienne
6x5 Nearco
6x5 Blue Larkspur

1992: Lil E Tee (0.73)
No Inbreeding

1991: Strike The Gold (0.93)
No Inbreeding

1990: Unbridled (0.85)
4x4 Aspidistra
4x5 Rough n’ Tumble

1989: Sunday Silence (0.71)
4x5 Mahmoud

1988: Winning Colors (0.79)
4x4/5 Nasrullah

1987: Alysheba (0.95)
4x4 Nasrullah
6x4 Man O’ War

1986: Ferdinand (1.19)
5x5 Bull Dog

1985: Spend a Buck (1.13)
5x5 Prince Rose

1984: Swale (0.66)
5/5x4 Nasrullah
6/6x5 Nearco

1983: Sunny’s Halo (0.76)
4x5 Mahmoud
5x6 Blenheim II
6x5 Nogara

1982: Gato Del Sol (0.69)
4x5/6 Nearco
5/5x6 Solario
4x6 Sun Princess
5x5 Mahmoud

1981: Pleasant Colony (0.73)
5x5 Mahmoud
5x6 Pharos
5x6 Papyrus
6x6/6 Blenheim II

1980: Genuine Risk (0.92)
6x6 Spearmint
1979: Spectacular Bid (0.98)
3x3 To Market
5x5 Blenheim II
6/6x6 Black Toney
5x6 Mumtaz Mahal

1978: Affirmed (0.73)
5x5/6/6 Teddy
6x5 Man O’ War

1977: Seattle Slew (0.74)
4x4 Nasrullah
5/6x5 Nearco
6x6/5 Blenheim II
5/6x6 Blue Larkspur
6/6x6 Sir Gallahad III
6x6 Pharos

1976: Bold Forbes (0.76)
5x3 Blenheim II
6/6x4 Blandford
6x5 Plucky Liege
6x6/6 Far Play

1975: Foolish Pleasure (0.79)
5/4x4 Blenheim II
6x5/6 Phalaris
6/6x6 The Tetrarch

1974: Cannonade (0.90)
5x5 Blenheim II
6x6/6 Phalaris
5x6 Mumtaz Mahal
6x5 Papyrus

1973: Secretariat (0.56)
6x5 Polymelus
6/6x6 Sundridge
6x6 Roi Herode

1972: Riva Ridge (0.79)
6x4 Swynford
6x4 Gainsborough
5x5 Ultimus
6/6x5 Phalaris

[dublino]

Uncle Mo no.10?????????

Was Haskin drinking that night he came up with that?

If Uncle Mo improves 3-5lb on his 2 year old form we could see a Triple Crown winner.

[bpressey]

Haskin/DRF has Uncle Mo at #1, here is how their other top picks at this stage have fared recently:

In fact, of Daily Racing Form’s six January favorites for the Derby between 2004 and 2009 (Eurosilver, Declan’s Moon, Stevie Wonderboy, Nobiz Like Shobiz, War Pass and Old Fashioned), only Nobiz Like Shobiz actually made the race. And he finished tenth.

Uncle Mo is more of the same: uber talented, under conditioned, and 50/50 to miss the big dance altogether. Pletcher isn't 1-29 with the best stock in the world for no good reason.

[zinn21]

bp wrote:

Uncle Mo is more of the same: uber talented, under conditioned, and 50/50 to miss the big dance altogether. Pletcher isn't 1-29 with the best stock in the world for no good reason.

The above statement is either 100% true or the law of averages are about to see Pletcher trainee's run off a bunch of TC wins in a short period of time.

You are also messing with the "racing gods" who have the innate ability to make those who publicly express statements like the above, look like complete idiots..

[bpressey]

True Zinn, but I gotta take a shot sometime. I think those predicting a Triple Crown for Uncle Mo are closer to looking like idiots than I am at this stage.

We always focus on these guys successes, and their failures never make the DRF. For every Uncle Mo there are 20 other regally bred 2yos in that barn that fail to reach their potential for whatever reason.

I am following Comma to the Top and trainer Peter Miller for obvious reasons such as 10 starts at 2 and now breezing 7F every 6 days while Uncle Mo is clocking 3F in 40. This is a $20k purchase with over $500k in earnings who anyone of us could have claimed for $40k last year. He has taken the old school conditioning approach of his mentor, Charlie Whittingham:

http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.co ... ll-of.html

[TJ]

Uncle Mo no.10?????????

Was Haskin drinking that night he came up with that?

If Uncle Mo improves 3-5lb on his 2 year old form we could see a Triple Crown winner.

Hi Dub,
It looked to me like Bill from WA used Haskin's top 12 Derby contender's and arranged them in order of his "Modern Conduit Mare" research number to rate those 12 according to potential stamina within their pedigree's. TJ

[oliverstoned]

Not a fan of Pletcher but I like Mike Repole and will be attending the Tampa Bay Derby (will post pics) hoping to see Uncle Mo win big. I too much prefer Comma To The Top's training method but wonder if he may just not have enough raw talent. If I had to pick a Derby winner now it would be one under the radar that has the pedigree with class on the bottom...just not sure who that is yet. Was anyone else suprised that Uncle Mo worked so slow?

[TJ]

Not a fan of Pletcher but I like Mike Repole and will be attending the Tampa Bay Derby (will post pics) hoping to see Uncle Mo win big. I too much prefer Comma To The Top's training method but wonder if he may just not have enough raw talent. If I had to pick a Derby winner now it would be one under the radar that has the pedigree with class on the bottom...just not sure who that is yet. Was anyone else suprised that Uncle Mo worked so slow?

Hi Oliver,
Not surprised at all....this was his first breeze after being at Jimmy Crupi's farm in Ocala. There's no need to crank him up so soon....the Tampa Bay Derby is a long way off and Repole wants to run in the Wood. That breeze was just to let 'Mo know his vacation is over, they'll step it up shortly. There's no need to over train him now when his major objective isn't till March 12th.
What does surprise me is the Wood comes just 4 weeks after the Tampa Bay Derby......that is unusual for Pletcher....he likes at least 5 weeks between starts?? TJ

[Bill from WA]

Hi TJ.

Your assumption is correct. The order of the horses listed in my post were based my interpretation of the female family influenced stamina (MCM)within the pedigree. Nothing to do with racing ability or talent, just an observation on pedigree based distance potential.

Bill

[TJ]

Hi TJ.

Your assumption is correct. The order of the horses listed in my post were based my interpretation of the female family influenced stamina (MCM)within the pedigree. Nothing to do with racing ability or talent, just an observation on pedigree based distance potential.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Nice to see your post and thanks....hope you are well. TJ

[siegy]

Hi TJ.

Your assumption is correct. The order of the horses listed in my post were based my interpretation of the female family influenced stamina (MCM)within the pedigree. Nothing to do with racing ability or talent, just an observation on pedigree based distance potential.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Nice to see your post and thanks....hope you are well. TJ

Hi,
Astrology=1.04
Stay Thirsty=0.33
Jaycito=1.34
To Honor and Serve=3.22
Comma to the Top=12.65
Brethren=3.60
Santiva=3.84
Soldat=14.60
Boys at tosconova=1.20
Uncle Mo=4.52
Tapizar=2.39
Dialed In= 0.15...............

The higher the number the stronger the horse,
The lower the number the faster the horse.

Good Luck in the derby, (Bill)

Siegy,

[bpressey]

Last 25 BC Juvenile champs:
Ky Derby – 11: 1-0-1
Preakness – 3: 2-1-0
Belmont – 0: 0-0-0

Don't think we have to worry about Uncle Mo carting off too much hardware. Of these 25 BC Juvenile winners, at least 10 were injured early in their 3yo career.

The only exception, Nafzger and Street Sense. Carl was known to breeze Derby champ Unbridled 4F the day before every race, but he had to do it in secret lest he be called an idiot by the media, god forbid he had bloggers to deal with back then. Read Traits of a Winner for details.

[dublino]

This BC Juvenile winner looks different.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lwg8z0Kx ... re=related

Just in case you want to watch it again.

Look at the second horse how far he was clear of the remainder, the winner wasn't stopping either upping this horse in trip seems to improve him.

Bring on the Derby.

[bpressey]

He's either the next Secretariat, or the next War Pass. You've placed your vote on that subject, Dublino. Better you than me. At least we both have the balls to do this now instead of on May 8th.

Your video only makes my point more clear: the more breathtaking and fantastic he is - the more chance he has of hurting himself in these next 3 months as he is coddled and treated like a piece of fine china with 4F works and 2 races.

For comparison's sake: Triple Crown winner Assault, the 'club-footed comet' was not treated as such, here is his May schedule, for one week that includes 2 Grade I wins and 15F of breezes:

MAY
3 – 4F in :48
4 – Won Kentucky Derby by 8 in 2:06 on sloppy track
5 – walked at CD
6 – shipped to Pimlico
8 – 3F in :40
9 – 8F in 1:45
11 – Won Preakness Stakes by a neck in 2:01 on fast track

[Whirlaway]

bpressey,

That isn't a fair comparison is it? Can't really compare the 'club-footed comet' and the stout and stamina types of his generation to the speedy and fragile type piece of china of a Thoroughbred we have today. And with respect to Pletcher and his 1-29, I tend to think the numbers reflect the fragile nature of the Thoroughbred more than they do the actions of the trainer.

You mentioned high cruising speed in a different post. "What I am after is a 30mph sustained gallop at maximal oxygen utilization, again Todd Pletcher’s ‘high cruising speed’ objectively defined." What about the high cruising speed of Uncle Mo? It looked like he was just breezin' in the BCJuvenile. I watched the video and the jockey used the whip I think twice. At this point it appears that Uncle Mo is the one to beat. Whether or not he shatters before the big dance like all of those before him, we'll see - maybe he is different. Maybe Pletcher will be using the Nafzger Model this year, running on the soft stuff at Tampa Bay, and then on the synthetic stuff at Keeneland. Maybe, just maybe, Uncle Mo will hold together and if he does, he'll be running on the same surface he won the BCJuvenile. If he gets there in one piece, who will challenge him?

I'd like to see Comma to the Top in the Derby. Does he have any Graded Stakes Earnings?