The 2011 Arc at Longchamp

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 6:28 am

In the 89-year history of the Arc at LongChamp, only 6 winners also won the most prestigeous classic for 3 years old horses in UK :

WORKFORCE 2010 ARC
WORKFORCE 2010 DERBY

SEA THE STARS 2009 ARC
SEA THE STARS 2009 DERBY

SINNDAR 2000 ARC
SINNDAR 2000 DERBY

LAMMTARRA 1995 ARC
LAMMTARRA 1995 DERBY

MILL REEF 1971 ARC
MILL REEF 1971 DERBY

SEA-BIRD 1965 ARC
SEA-BIRD 1965 DERBY

Will we see the 7th Arc-Derby double accomplisher (Pour Moi) next month ? Based on above, UK Derby seemed to be an "unreliable"
pointer.

After Tuesday's 1st forfeit stage 19 contenders remain on the card. Ante- post favorite is Sarafina (Grand Prix De St Cloud winner).
The other favorites are Galikova (Prix Vermeille), Nathaniel (5-horse field King George winner), Frankel (2000 UK Guiness, St James
Palace, Sussex), So You Think (Eclipse, Irish Champions, Tattersalls Gold Cup), Pour Moi (Derby Stakes), Snow Fairy. Last year's Arc
victor, Workforce, are 2nd (by 2&3/4l) to Nathaniel in the King George and 2nd (by 1/2l) to So You Think in Eclipse.

There are also 6 horses which won both Gran Prix De St Cloud and Arc in the same year.

Last year's 2nd Nakayama Fest s also a likely starter.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:40 am

i love so you think, my fav horse in the world.

i think he will win this as long as the ground is firm. Melborne 3200 meters was just asking too much of him he doesn't want to run that far but i think a mile and a half is right up his alley

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 10:02 am

I think it might turn out to be a Galileo family affair...As 4 So You Think..High Chapparal's kid..I believe 10f or there about
will suit him better...I rather err by assuming that his good showing last Nov was a sheer outlier...

Tappiano · Postby **Tappiano** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:55 pm

Well I can guarantee it won't be Pour Moi as he was retired a few weeks ago with a leg injury.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horser ... njury.html

kimberley mine · Postby **kimberley mine** » Tue Sep 27, 2011 1:59 pm

wangkw wrote:I think it might turn out to be a Galileo family affair...As 4 So You Think..High Chapparal's kid..I believe 10f or there about
will suit him better...I rather err by assuming that his good showing last Nov was a sheer outlier...

Bart Cummings didn't have him fully fit to run the 2 miles. He pushed him, but not hard enough. Aiden O'Brien also learned the hard way that this horse is not easy to keep sharp.

They'll not make that mistake again.

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:00 pm

I see value betting in Hiruno D'amour,,this Manhattan Cafe's 4 year old colt is a changed horse for this second racing season..5
starts with 2 wins, one of them is the prestigeous G1 16f 18-horse-field Tenno Sho (spring) on turf in May (the other win came
from a G2 10f domestic event, by a nose)...he was beaten by a short neck in the G2 12f 4-horse field Prix Foy by Sarafina on Sep 11.

HD's grand father in law is the 4 for 4 Lammtarra, which won both UK Derby and the Arc in 1995. Lammtarra's own progeny
have failed to make any remarkable headlines on racing thus far.

wilf · Postby **wilf** » Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:01 am

Kimberly Mine I am not sure how much you know about Bart Cummings but his horse's certainly do not lack fitness. As a man who has trained the winners of 12 Melbourne Cups I am sure that he knew what was needed. So You Think won the W.S.Cox Plate going ten furlongs when he was not actually 3 years old,he won it again the following year and I never thought that he would stay the 2 miles of the Cup last november as he was too brilliant at the time. O'Brien has had plenty of time to work with him on the gallops and with maturity he may now get the mile and a half of the Arc easily. I worked for Cummings for ten years and rubbed on some fantastic runners but Bart thought that SYT may just be the best he ever had and was not happy about losing him.

kimberley mine · Postby **kimberley mine** » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:10 am

Wilf, I never said that BC's horses lacked fitness--what I said was that BC pushed SYT, but not hard enough for the job he needed to do. His series of preps for the Melbourne Cup included racing at 10-12f, but not beyond that. His sheer class carried him to the third place spot.

Fast forward to this past northern spring, where Aiden O'Brien watched Rewilding pip his horse in the Prince of Wales, and later admitted that he hadn't pushed him hard enough between that and his previous race. Same issue, different hemisphere.

My take is that SYT is one of those horses who is harder than average to get and keep truly fit, and that he needs hard work at the distance he's racing. O'Brien and Cummings both learned that, Cummings never got the second chance O'Brien did because the horse was sold.

wilf · Postby **wilf** » Sun Oct 02, 2011 8:56 am

Fillies and mares filled the first three places this afternoon as much improved German filly Danedream who was supplemented to the race won in impressive fashion. Fillies often do well in the fall and she was doing so well that Japanese interests bought a 50% share in her two days before the race. So You Think was 4th as the first male home in the race but the winner was special on this day!

Patuxet · Postby **Patuxet** » Sun Oct 02, 2011 10:51 am

Wonderful filly which has had a great 3YO season. This is her 3rd Gr. 1 this year. In addition she won the Italian Oaks (G.2) and came 3rd in the Italian Derby.

A month ago she decisively won the GP von Baden - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CUzhczZS_I

Here's her Arc: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_q ... m+Arc&aq=f

parlo · Postby **parlo** » Sun Oct 02, 2011 11:39 am

And here is Danedream's victory at G1-Berlin-Hoppegarten:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=le3Xm_kfJrI

In a certain way this win is even more impressive to me than her victory at Baden-Baden 6 weeks later. A very unlucky Lucas Cranach in that race will soon race in Australia!

Shammy Davis · Postby **Shammy Davis** » Sun Oct 02, 2011 6:35 pm

Wow! Nice German bred filly. Won going away.

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Sun Oct 02, 2011 7:14 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTSRISPoPig

Plenty of gas left in the tank after crosing the line..jaw-dropping margin....5 lengths.

Sakhee won this race by 6 lengths..then in the BC Classic of the year (2001), he lost to the sizable Tiznow by a bloody nose
thanks to the cold wind blow which came from nowhere few yards out.

The credentials of this latest win gave Danedream a ticket to the BC Classic...interesting to see if she will make up the
mission from where both Giant's Causeway and Sakhee have left unaccomplished.

Japan Cup and next year's Dubai World Cup are also plausible options awaiting her.

Good girl.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:17 pm

congrats to Bettina and all those Ger horse promoters out there. Maybe we'll get the message and appreciate them a little more, esp for their stamina.

jm

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Oct 03, 2011 7:48 pm

so this year, german breds have had a big say in winning the arc and the kentucky derby.

maybe the english bloodlines are becoming too speed oriented.