A dozen or so races into the two-year-old series I thought to take a look at the numbers, maybe I’ll learn a few things; maybe see some patterns; listen to what the data tells me – if anything. I’ll list the race, my pick, his/her finish and closing odds – see what I come up with. Asterisk denotes betting favorite. Double asterisk denotes second pick scratched in.
Two-year-old-Colts:
Sanford Stakes - Special Jo - 6th - $10.00
Best Pal Stakes - Scherer Magic* - 5th - $1.00
Saratoga Special Stakes - Dan the Tin Man - 6th - $7.50
With Anticipation Stakes(T) - Balance The Books - 1st - $4.40
Sapling Stakes - Drum Roll** - 3rd - $1.90
Hopeful Stakes - Shanghai Bobby - 1st - $2.15
Del Mar Futurity - Know More* - 2nd - $1.70
Frontrunner Stakes - Know More* - 2nd - $1.80
Eight races: 2 winners - 2 second - 1 third - 1 fifth - 2 sixth
Winning percentage: 25%
In the money percentage: 62%
Average finish: 3.25
Average odds: 4.07
Two-year-old-Fillies:
Sorrento Stakes - Renee's Titan - 4th - $14.10
Adirondack Stakes - Kauai Katie* - 1st - $.40
Del Mar Debutante - Heir Kitty - 5th - $8.70
Spinaway Stakes - So Many Ways - 1st - $3.90
Chandelier Stakes - Executiveprivilege** - 1st - $.30
Five races: 3 winners - 1 fourth - 1 fifth
Winning percentage: 60%
In the money percentage: 60%
Average finish: 2.4
Average odds: 5.48
Overall
13 races: 5 winners - 2 second - 1 third - 1 fourth - 2 fifth - 2 sixth
Winning percentage: 38%
In the money percentage: 61%
Average finish: 2.92
Average odds: 4.45
~
Beaten by Baffert four times. If you can't beat the man, join him in his success. Dosage and RPF data pointed to three winners, revisit Roman's work create ways to import more of it. Doin' better w/the fillies than the colts (thanks TJ). Tighten up the loose, sloppy handicapping remembering Ainslie's principles. Look to increase average odds. Still much to be learned.
All things considered, not to shabby for a rookie.
Gotta love the game even more.
The 2YO Derby / Oaks Trail - Data Set 1 Revisited . . .
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
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The 2YO Derby / Oaks Trail - Data Set 1 Revisited . . .
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
-
Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
Revisited . . .
Revisit:
Never easy to be objective when looking at your own work, particularly lookin' at your own handicappin' but objective I must try to be.
Colts:
Takin' a look at the posts, I probably gave one away in the Sanford. Picked Overanalyze in the Sapling, he scratched came back to win the Futurity, I should have had him and only saw he won after reviewing Leading Male Juvenile SW of 2012; I lacked due diligence. The game requires steadfast patience and focus day in and day out all of the time - just didn't have it and missed another one. Beaten by Baffert's Rolling Fog in the Del Mar Futurity. Gave away two in that series. The 25% winners is average, the 62% ITM percentage, may be above average; the 3.25 average finish, marginal and the 4.07 average odds a point low. I believe the 3.25 average finish indicates the handicapping is solid, but not quite good enough or maybe picking low odds horses? Henceforth and particularly during the three-year-old season: No more giveaways; daily due diligence and join the winners winning.
Fillies:
Takin' a look at the posts, I bet against Baffert's Executiveprivilege twice and lost twice, had I bet with Baffert I'd be five for five. Scary. The 60% winners is high; the 60% ITM percentage may be above average; the 2.4 average finish indicates the handicapping is good and the 5.48 average odds is acceptable. The fillies look promising and I seemed to enjoy their races more than the colts. Henceforth and particularly during the three-year-old season: join the winners winning.
Overall:
The 38% winners is high, but could be higher; the 61% ITM percentage may be high, but could be higher; the 2.92 average finish is good but could be better; the 4.45 average odds half a point low.
I've been lucky. Luck is fickle, so I'll be careful and diligent.
Lovin' the game . . .
Never easy to be objective when looking at your own work, particularly lookin' at your own handicappin' but objective I must try to be.
Colts:
Takin' a look at the posts, I probably gave one away in the Sanford. Picked Overanalyze in the Sapling, he scratched came back to win the Futurity, I should have had him and only saw he won after reviewing Leading Male Juvenile SW of 2012; I lacked due diligence. The game requires steadfast patience and focus day in and day out all of the time - just didn't have it and missed another one. Beaten by Baffert's Rolling Fog in the Del Mar Futurity. Gave away two in that series. The 25% winners is average, the 62% ITM percentage, may be above average; the 3.25 average finish, marginal and the 4.07 average odds a point low. I believe the 3.25 average finish indicates the handicapping is solid, but not quite good enough or maybe picking low odds horses? Henceforth and particularly during the three-year-old season: No more giveaways; daily due diligence and join the winners winning.
Fillies:
Takin' a look at the posts, I bet against Baffert's Executiveprivilege twice and lost twice, had I bet with Baffert I'd be five for five. Scary. The 60% winners is high; the 60% ITM percentage may be above average; the 2.4 average finish indicates the handicapping is good and the 5.48 average odds is acceptable. The fillies look promising and I seemed to enjoy their races more than the colts. Henceforth and particularly during the three-year-old season: join the winners winning.
Overall:
The 38% winners is high, but could be higher; the 61% ITM percentage may be high, but could be higher; the 2.92 average finish is good but could be better; the 4.45 average odds half a point low.
I've been lucky. Luck is fickle, so I'll be careful and diligent.
Lovin' the game . . .
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire