2013 Triple Crown Thread

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 12:55 pm

With the Holy Bull Stakes next Saturday, let's start a thread where we can put all our news about workouts that might be TC related in one thread.

I will start with this one:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ull-breeze

Edited by moderator

Lisann · Postby **Lisann** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:52 am

We thought Oxbow looked pretty nice winning the Lecomte. Good to see John Court get a nice horse.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:06 am

someone else i know said something about him i didn't catch the race. maybe i need to.

I'm leery of anything that comes out of FG though. lol FG triple crown horses are like a bad girlfriend. they have burned me too many times in the past

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:12 pm

it's my lucky day wins the holy bull. SB a soundly beaten 2nd.

SB isn't going 10F. i doout he goes 9. they might as well aim for the sprint races now

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:22 pm

and this is exatly why i love the new road to the derby format. you can already cross out basically one dead to rights sprinter whose in the race on name only. we are getting closer and closer to having a real horse race on the first Saturday in may

the breeders cup juve / 2YO champion. win a prep like everyone else.

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:14 pm

BD wrote:

SB isn't going 10F. i doout he goes 9. they might as well aim for the sprint races now

Totally agree. He'll probably get hurt fighting those other natural routers on the Derby Trail.

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:29 pm

bdw0617 wrote:and this is exatly why i love the new road to the derby format. you can already cross out basically one dead to rights sprinter whose in the race on name only. we are getting closer and closer to having a real horse race on the first Saturday in may

the breeders cup juve / 2YO champion. win a prep like everyone else.

Hi bdw,
I believe you may be right about Shaghai Bobby having trouble going a distance...but this horse that beat him today had to set a track record to beat him 2 lengths. In all fairness the winner ran and won here on Jan 1st. Shanghai Bobby hasn't raced since November 3rd at SA. Then he was freshened and returned to the races today off an 11 week absence. Shanghai Bobby's race really isn't as bad as you're making it out to be....it was 11 lengths back to the third horse and further back to stake horses Bern Identity and Frac Daddy. TJ

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:12 pm

you have to understand i never was impressed with his BC win in the first place. you can pull my post history.. he didn't "find more" the other horses stopped running in the BC that was rediclous how slow the horses were in that race. to me this just validates how crappy that field was.

and cry me a river about the track record it's gulfstream speedway we are talking about 3YO's break track records every year down there that's why pletcher sends them down there beucase he knows they are going to soup up the track so when his horses run up the track and back they can still use the inflated speed figure in the stallion infomercial and get silly breeders to come out of five figures for the right to bred to him.

i don't even particularly care for the winner. but i so absoutly nothing to suggest he will take to 10F. the first half mile wasn't particularly blazing if he can't run that he doesn't have a chance in the derby. he's just not a route horse. that's not a derogatory term, sprint is not a curse word lol. he's a GREAT horse. but he's a GREAT 1 turn horse. not a 2 turn horse.

if people would get honest about what they have and what they don't we woudlnt' be looking at crappy travers and haskells and breeders cups every year. stop believing the hype.

TJ · Postby TJ » Sun Jan 27, 2013 6:36 am

bdw0617 wrote:you have to understand i never was impressed with his BC win in the first place. you can pull my post history.. he didn't "find more" the other horses stopped running in the BC that was rediclous how slow the horses were in that race. to me this just validates how crappy that field was.

and cry me a river about the track record it's gulfstream speedway we are talking about 3YO's break track records every year down there that's why pletcher sends them down there beucase he knows they are going to soup up the track so when his horses run up the track and back they can still use the inflated speed figure in the stallion infomercial and get silly breeders to come out of five figures for the right to bred to him.

i don't even particularly care for the winner. but i so absoutly nothing to suggest he will take to 10F. the first half mile wasn't particularly blazing if he can't run that he doesn't have a chance in hell in the derby. he's just not a route horse. that's not a derogatory term, sprint is not a curse word lol. he's a GREAT horse. but he's a GREAT 1 turn horse. not a 2 turn horse.

if people would get honest about what they have and what they don't we woudlnt' be looking at crappy travers and haskells and breeders cups every year. stop believing the hype.

Hi bdw,
I started my post by agreeing with you that Shanghai Bobby could have distance limitations. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that... with his style of running and quarter horse appearance. That doesn't take away from the fact you are exaggerating how badly he was beaten, that's all I was talking about. The track wasn't playing particularly fast Saturday and this was the first track record set this year.....the track had nothing to do with it....both these horses are just quick leaving the remainder of the ten horse field far behind them while recieveing a lofty 104 and 101 beyer respectively. TJ

DDT · Postby **DDT** » Sun Jan 27, 2013 9:37 am

Shanghai Bobby is just another BC Juv winning Champion 2 year old to come back to his peers once they catch up to him and the list is a long one when you think about War Pass, Uncle Mo and Hansen to name a few recent examples. When you factor in the type and amount of training necessary to accomplish the task it could be too much too soon. Although not all BC Juv winners returned at 3 to run in the Derby only one has gone on to win the Derby, Street Sense, and of course Calvin's ride over the same track may have helped a little, but in general, I think it is safe to eliminate any BC Juv winner as a Derby winner. All that being said, he ran a pretty nice come backer, and I am not sure we have heard the last of him.

DDT

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:41 am

DDT wrote:Shanghai Bobby is just another BC Juv winning Champion 2 year old to come back to his peers once they catch up to him and the list is a long one when you think about War Pass, Uncle Mo and Hansen to name a few recent examples. When you factor in the type and amount of training necessary to accomplish the task it could be too much too soon. Although not all BC Juv winners returned at 3 to run in the Derby only one has gone on to win the Derby, Street Sense, and of course Calvin's ride over the same track may have helped a little, but in general, I think it is safe to eliminate any BC Juv winner as a Derby winner. All that being said, he ran a pretty nice come backer, and I am not sure we have heard the last of him.

DDT

funny you bring this up. I actually did some research on this about 2 weeks ago and I found that only 3 out of 24 horses that hit the board in the breeders cup, hit the board in the derby, the last 8 years those being Afleex Alex, Street Sense and I want to say Wilco. anyway that's it.

TJ · Postby TJ » Sun Jan 27, 2013 2:23 pm

Here's an interesting 3YO I saw...who ran on the Holy Bull under-card Saturday, that was Orb. It was one of the split allowance NW 1/OT. Cerro won the other division. Orb, very slowly being brought to hand by Shug McGaughey for owner's Stuart Janney and Ogden Phipp's....he is an interesting horse. Winning at a mile and an eighth and going back to Janney's great producer Shenanigans (dam of Ruffian).....this could be one to watch? Looking forward to see if he's nominated to any upcoming 3YO stakes. TJ

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:10 am

Itsmyluckyday was tough in the Holy Bull, can't take anything away from him. He was dead fit at the top of his form cycle while Shanghai came into that one off a layoff and works - lost by two lengths. Had Shanghai been equally fit, that would have been a hoss' race, but I have no doubt Shanghai would have won it.

It'll be interesting to see if the connections of Itsmyluckyday can keep him at the top of his form cycle, I kinda doubt it and I'm thinkin' he'll have to start gettin' a little tired, won't he? Has he already peaked too soon? What are they gonna do now, come into the Florida Derby on works alone? That race is some sixty days away. They gotta be thinkin' and no doubt tryin' to figure out what to do with him between now and then. All Shanghai needs is a couple of more works and he should be tough. Lookin' forward to those two hookin' up come the end of March.

The EFH is in and Shanghai is at the top, number one two-year-old in the country. What horse won the Eclipse for two-year-old? He shipped into SA for the BC Juvenile and won it, not to mention he won the Hopeful Stakes and the Champagne. With respect to him being suited for the distance, how many of them em' are bred for ten furlongs these days? Does anybody really know what time it is?

Alas, time for me to go, but I must say In my opinion Shanghai is still the horse to beat; won't be bettin' against him next out.

dublino · Postby **dublino** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 2:59 am

This time of year where sense goes out the window.
History shows us is 90% likely that a Raise a Native sire line horse will win the KY Derby.

Anything that isn't by this sireline fugetaboutit.

da hossman · Postby **da hossman** » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:39 pm

IMO Shanghai Bobby is a bet against in the KY Derby - too far for his pedigree and the last quarter of the BC Juvenile could have been timed with an hourglass!

It is early yet but there are some interesting horses with enough stoutness in their pedigree out there - Violence, Orb, He's Had Enough, It's My Lucky Day, Fortify, Positively, Archwarrior, Majestic Warrior, etc.

This weekend should produce interesting results that could influence everyone's opinions - it is an exciting time!