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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:39 pm 
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So let me get this straight. I could have bought a yearling by Musketier, a European warhorse who raced till 10, and made over a million in 50 starts, and out of a mare (Pay the Man) who had 27 wins in 76 starts and who ALSO raced till 10, who ALSO made over a million, stakes racers both, for . . .
$3,500
Yes, a great deal for whoever bought him, even if the foal never races and only becomes a conversation piece, but . . . wow. Really? No one wants to respect that parentage?
Did this guy (Keesep 17 3717) vet horribly or something similar?
Bad physical matchup breeding?
Just market lack of respect for unfashionable stallion?
:shock:

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:11 pm 
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCVR_ajL_Eo

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:57 am 
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Just one reply, and a funny clip at that?
Seriously--this is not just a rant.
There must be some one in the industry who is respected who thinks soundness is with breeding to?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:15 am 
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Toccet

A 3 year old by this stallion out of a City Zip mare, Clown Prince, is entered today at LRL in the first race at 1 Mile. I am going to play him in some doubles and maybe just to win. He should have no problems with the distance and he will not have to be much to contend with these.

DDT


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:13 pm 
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I sent two mares to Musketier last year. I want foals that are built solidly so they can stand up to training and run enough to earn some checks. Musketier can get that type of foal, and I'm not in a rush to get them to the track young, and the physical match with my mares was strong, so it was a great choice for me as a super modest breed-to-race operation. (And by "breed-to-race operation," I mean I have two mares and plan to race the first two foals out of both of them. On a shoestring. Knowing if they don't start earning paychecks shortly after getting to the track, I won't be able to continue. So, it's important for me to produce runners that will make it through the rigors of training and have enough talent to hit the board with some consistency.)

Now, if I were planning to *sell*the foals, my considerations would've been different when I chose stallions. It's exceedingly rare to make a true profit on any sub-$15,000 stallion. Like, less than five percent of the time rare. At $5K, Musketier is priced as a breed-to-race stallion and probably won't cause much excitement in the sales ring. Even for a stellar physical specimen. Even for colts out of above-average-but-not-outstanding mares.

So, $3,500 for a Musketier colt out of a hard-knocking modest stakes mare? Sounds like a potential bargain if you want to buy a yearling and invest the additional $15K or more (potentially much more) to get him to the races. But I wouldn't look at that colt as a pinhook prospect or a stallion prospect. And probably not as a strong candidate for 2YO racing.

All that said, you bring up a great example of how out of whack the "breed to race" and "commercial" breeding considerations really are. Good find!

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 8:46 am 
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As you say, the valley between breed-to-sell and breed-to-race has become a huge chasm. Since I got my trainer's license, I have been going to the sales to try to buy those unfashionable RUNNERS. Breed to sell is a crapshoot as you cannot accurately forecast what will be HOT and what will be NOT. So just like Craps, you have to play in multiple spots to try to cash in. And there is no Pass Line.

I often wistfully peruse the stallion register for KY mates for my few mares but end up breeding them to my stallion, Thabit, after I rule out everything in my price range as "not better than Thabit". As for Musketier, I confess that his pedigree is So Far Removed from those familiar American bloodlines that I would not know where to start to try to plan a mating. It would have to be a "physical specimen" decision for me where the baby in front of me was the type I was seeking.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:20 am 
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Ahhh. THANK YOU. It is good to now people's thoughts. All this makes perfect sense, and I guess the chasm is just another example of human impatience or short-term plans rather than wisdom or long-range plans.
I knew these realities existed, but I guess I was just dumbfounded that there weren't at least 2 breed to race folks that weren't willing to get into a bidding war over him.
Will be really interesting to see what he does.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2018 5:08 pm 
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Hello,
as someone born and raised in Germany, I knew our thoroughbred Sire- and damliners very well, like you the "American Ones".

Nevertheless I will point out some "Connections" with your Families. It's only a short Survey of Musketier Pedigree.

-Musketier carries 2 instances of Caro (Black Duchess Family), Sire of Cozzene, Tejano, Dr. Carter
-He carries the FB's Relko/Reliance, damsire Relic
-Linamix, his damsire traces via Mendez to Lyphard,
_the Granddam of Linamix is by Alcide and is related with the Feola/Round Table/Monarchy Family:
- Mendez - Miss Pia is from the Fam. 23-b (Mannie Gray)
-Musketier through Acatenango is from the rare Dark Ronald Sireline, Big Spruce - Herbager (see -Silvano) traces to the same Sire.

Just to make his ped interesting, too, he carries 2 uncommon Nearco/Hyperion crosses, see Aggressor, his dam Phaetusa (N/H) and Mirnaya in his Damline (N/H).

Hope I could help

regards, Bettina


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:58 pm 
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Quote:
Since I got my trainer's license, I have been going to the sales to try to buy those unfashionable RUNNERS. Breed to sell is a crapshoot as you cannot accurately forecast what will be HOT and what will be NOT. So just like Craps, you have to play in multiple spots to try to cash in. And there is no Pass Line.


Madelyn has a good point about the sales/guessing what will be in fashion, but there's another splash of cold hard reality and that's where will a resulting foal run?

His best races were going long on turf. Except possibly at Woodbine, turf racing is at best a second choice in North America and more often than not is an afterthought/where you try your horse when you've tried everything else. For a turf horse to make money, it needs to be at least allowance class (because there are fewer turf races, so you have to win at a higher level to make the same money). For a distance runner (>9f/1800m), there are also very few races and so you have to be at least allowance class.

You can have a wonderful, sound, talented athlete, but if there are no races carded for your athlete to run, you will not win or make money. It's that simple. The same thing happened with North Light and probably will happen with Bullet Train...they want to run long on the weeds and there are just not enough races to be profitable for those horses. As a result, they don't sell well and you don't see as many of them bred as you do dirt sprinters and milers.

As for what bloodlines for a horse like Musketier, the obvious ones are Danzig, Blushing Groom, and Sunday Silence.


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:23 am 
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And then there is always Arlington where if it comes off the grass it goes to poly... but as kimberly mine points out So Many Tracks just don't write turf. They HAVE turf they just hate to use it. And there is Never Any Cheap turf. So if you have a grass horse it has to be a GOOD grass horse. It costs a lot to find that out. When you have a yearling or short two year old you are starting at the very beginning of a costly process. It may cost less in the long run to spend more on the baby to get a nice versatile 6 furlong dirt type than can run any day, anywhere.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:58 pm 
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OK, so Hiho debuted today at Northland...guess what? SPEED at 3.5 f. Just got passed at wire to lose by a nose.
Thoughts?

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:06 am 
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Hello, Toccet,
congrats your "foal" by Musketier had a good start with his racetrack debut, admittingly not a winner, but showed some ability.

regards, Bettina


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:28 am 
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Thanks..I didn't mean thoughts about my pick though; but I wouldn't have figured him to start at three or have speed from the gate!

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:54 pm 
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Anyone who's followed my wandering posts knows that I too am something of a bottom feeder, like Madelyn trying to find runners in the ranks of those the commercial buyers say aren't 'commercial'. What I've found is that no respect is an attitude hard to break, even in the face of superior success. So a sire like Birdstone, who sired 2 classic Winners in the first crop, still gets no respect. Alas there seem to be a lot of turf millionaires who simply don't get traction here - Marsh Side comes to mind. Of course, the other factors - brilliant speed by April and the looks of an adult horse at a yearling sale is what really sells. I often look at some of the great champions of decades ago (even Northern Dancer) in black and white, I think many would never be 'commercial' today. But they don't write the races for these guys either.

jm

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PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:26 am 
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Very interesting data on this colt Hiho. I sure wish someone around here would write 3.5 furlongs for two year olds :) Not to denigrate the colt's accomplishment, it Was a five horse field and he had the advantage of the break and he was slowing down at the end of 3.5 furlongs. Nonetheless, he cashed a nice check for his connections.

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