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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 6:40 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Joltman wrote:
Seems like the news of the foot problem gave jolt of optimism for owners who ran up the track against Justify. I wonder if Justify will get the perfect trip again. Would be interesting to see if somebody tossed in a rabbit.

jm

Hi Jolt,
Honestly considering the track conditions in the Derby, the top 8 finishers should all be running back in the Preakness....though it's odds on they won't get a fast track at Pimlico. Good Magic certainly deserves a shot and I'm glad to see him in there keeping Justify honest. The foot issue is over but it isn't why Chad decided to run in the Preakness. Magic was tired and tucked up after the Derby...but he's come on strong and picked up weight in recent days and Chad can't wait to get to Pimlico. Two of these lower leg issues Justify has dealt with before, scratches and cracked heels. The bruised heel was an additional development after going a mile and a quarter over that hard and treacherous track at CD in the Derby. That was the issue which caused the tenderness. He was 3/4'd on his left hind hoof to alleviate the pain from the bruised heel. The blacksmith re-shod Justify with a full shoe and he galloped 100% today. That being said, the Derby had a big time rabbit in there, Promises Fulfilled, first 1/4 in 22.24 and a 1/2 in 45.77 which was attended all the way by Justify..that's pretty fast. Yet no one was able to catch him even though the final fractions slowed considerably? Remember how Promises Fulfilled destroyed the Florida Derby pace by going to the lead at all cost allowing Audible to come from off the pace to win that race. So the Preakness won't be a problem even if a rabbit is entered, if they couldn't run over Justify in the Derby (with the added distance) it's much less likely to happen in the Preakness. If the owners of Justify were worried about the pace...they never would have entered their other horse...Quip, who will most likely be Smith's pacesetter in the Preakness. Justify gets perfect trips because his competition is darned if they go with him and dead if they don't. He is a race horse with a very high cruising speed and that's the reason how/why he gets "perfect trips". TJ


Hey TJ

I don't doubt for a moment that the J horse is a beast, and to be on those fractions and still hold up is admirable, although as you note, that same stretch were they ran 22.2 they crawled home after a circuit. But compared to the nightmare of getting behind horses slippin and sliding and stilll rallying tells me that somebody in the bunch can take him in the final furlong. The key is (my theory) that Justify get pressure outside of him, so he can't do the free gallop thing. , especially if dueling between horses. for a while, like the rest of the herd. I'm thinking that if he got some mud in his face, as a young horse and maybe a bit on the muscle, he might not have it in the stretch. Trip is everything. Mud would help an upset as well. And the protective shoe might not do so well in the slop? Just my $2 theory....jm

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PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2018 8:59 pm 
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Joltman wrote:
TJ wrote:
Joltman wrote:
Seems like the news of the foot problem gave jolt of optimism for owners who ran up the track against Justify. I wonder if Justify will get the perfect trip again. Would be interesting to see if somebody tossed in a rabbit.

jm

Hi Jolt,
Honestly considering the track conditions in the Derby, the top 8 finishers should all be running back in the Preakness....though it's odds on they won't get a fast track at Pimlico. Good Magic certainly deserves a shot and I'm glad to see him in there keeping Justify honest. The foot issue is over but it isn't why Chad decided to run in the Preakness. Magic was tired and tucked up after the Derby...but he's come on strong and picked up weight in recent days and Chad can't wait to get to Pimlico. Two of these lower leg issues Justify has dealt with before, scratches and cracked heels. The bruised heel was an additional development after going a mile and a quarter over that hard and treacherous track at CD in the Derby. That was the issue which caused the tenderness. He was 3/4'd on his left hind hoof to alleviate the pain from the bruised heel. The blacksmith re-shod Justify with a full shoe and he galloped 100% today. That being said, the Derby had a big time rabbit in there, Promises Fulfilled, first 1/4 in 22.24 and a 1/2 in 45.77 which was attended all the way by Justify..that's pretty fast. Yet no one was able to catch him even though the final fractions slowed considerably? Remember how Promises Fulfilled destroyed the Florida Derby pace by going to the lead at all cost allowing Audible to come from off the pace to win that race. So the Preakness won't be a problem even if a rabbit is entered, if they couldn't run over Justify in the Derby (with the added distance) it's much less likely to happen in the Preakness. If the owners of Justify were worried about the pace...they never would have entered their other horse...Quip, who will most likely be Smith's pacesetter in the Preakness. Justify gets perfect trips because his competition is darned if they go with him and dead if they don't. He is a race horse with a very high cruising speed and that's the reason how/why he gets "perfect trips". TJ


Hey TJ

I don't doubt for a moment that the J horse is a beast, and to be on those fractions and still hold up is admirable, although as you note, that same stretch were they ran 22.2 they crawled home after a circuit. But compared to the nightmare of getting behind horses slippin and sliding and stilll rallying tells me that somebody in the bunch can take him in the final furlong. The key is (my theory) that Justify get pressure outside of him, so he can't do the free gallop thing. , especially if dueling between horses. for a while, like the rest of the herd. I'm thinking that if he got some mud in his face, as a young horse and maybe a bit on the muscle, he might not have it in the stretch. Trip is everything. Mud would help an upset as well. And the protective shoe might not do so well in the slop? Just my $2 theory....jm

Hi Jolt,
They put a 3/4 shoe on that left hind foot to relieve the pressure which in turn relieved the pain of the bruised heel. He wore that 3/4 shoe after the Derby until Monday when he returned to a regular racing plate. It isn't a protective shoe like a bar shoe or something like that which could interfere with performance over an off track...it is just done to relieve pressure in the foot. Baffert was on hand to watch the gallop after being re-shod, I guess to relieve the pressure he's getting in his head from all of this:>) Here's an interesting shot of Justify wearing the 3/4'd shoe I'm talking about....it's just a normal racing plate cut down, in this case on the inside of his left hind hoof. Click on the image to enlarge it. TJ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dc1iZC6XkAAw4yM.jpg


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PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2018 2:41 pm 
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They just finished the post position draw and morning line at Pimlico...Here is the field in post position order for the 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes. No surprise entries...will post The Preakness in a separate thread when the overnights are drawn and the past performances come out in a couple hours? TJ

1. Quip..Florent Geroux, Rodolphe Brisset 12-1
2. Lone Sailor... Irad Ortiz Jr., Tom Amoss 15-1
3. Sporting Chance... Luis Contreras, D. Wayne Lukas 30-1
4. Diamond King... Javier Castellano, John Servis 30-1
5. Good Magic...Jose Ortiz, Chad Brown 3-1
6. Tenfold...Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen 20-1
7. Justify...Mike Smith, Bob Baffert 1-2
8. Bravazo...Luis Saez, D. Wayne Lukas 20-1


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