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 Post subject: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:39 am 
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Did anyone notice Into Mischief's stud fee take some meteoric leaps? He was 35K in 2015, 45K in 2016, 75K in 2017, 100K in 2018 and now 150K for 2019. I remember him at 10K for quite some time. He does have some good runners and at 13 is not yet subject to the older stallion syndrome.

Tapit has fallen to $225K from the $300K he was at for some time - he is getting on a bit at 18.

Anyone else have any thoughts on the '19 fees?

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:31 pm 
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Top End ($75k and up)

Medaglia D'Oro didn't have a single Gr-1 winner this year. Surprised he stayed at $200k, what with Quality Road at $150k and Curlin at $175k. He's solid gold in the sales ring which is holding him up.

Justify at $150k doesn't inspire, not with American Pharoah at the same farm for probably less money.

Ghostzapper at $85k is a much better deal than Candy Ride at $80k...take away Gun Runner with the Pegasus and DWC earnings and Ghostzapper is siring more runners, more winners, and more SW with one crop fewer. Candy Ride gets a good horse but he also gets a lot that aren't sound enough to run. Bonus for high-dollar breed to race operations with Ghostzapper: if you get a filly, he's turning into a heck of a broodmare sire.

Kitten's Joy at $75k is a steal for the well-moneyed Euro or Japanese breeder getting a nicely-bred filly or mare off the track or at auction in the USA.

Mid Level ($25k - $74k)

Distorted Humor at $50k is how you start off a young mare.

Flatter at $40k....if you're breeding to sell, his numbers work out better if you sell a weanling than a yearling. At $25k he would be profitable for a yearling.

English Channel is a fine stallion and I'm shocked that Lanwades in England haven't tried to buy him. He fits their mold to a tee. At $30k he's too dear for the US as a grass-only stallion, but take two mares to him at $10,000 each and run the foals at Woodbine in the summer/Arlington's synth in the winter and you'll have a grand time. Alternately, breed him to small but fast mares, race the foals, and turn them into handy and tough little polo ponies at the end of their careers. Ice-cold at the sales. Unlikely to ever recover. It's too bad because he's such a good stallion.

Broken Vow at $25k is like Flatter in that it's better to sell a weanling than wait for yearling sales. Good filly sire, probably will be an excellent broodmare sire. Perhaps better to buy than to breed.

Lower End ($5k - $24k)

Jimmy Creed at $20k looks like a young horse with a considerable upside.

Kantharos at $20k earned his way to Kentucky. I'd put him in with Distorted Humor on how to start off a young mare.

Midnight Lute at $15k is a good sire of classy runners. Going poorly at the sales mostly because they need time to grow and aren't early.

Macho Uno and Mucho Macho Man at $10k are not commercially fashionable but will get runners. Same with Freud and Include at $7500.


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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:10 am 
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I would concur with you KM on the above. And add just a couple

In the midrange, Square Eddie in CA is quietly racking up some excellent runners. Hasn't yet had the Big Horse. I think his fee has gone up way too much though, as his weanling/yearling prices have lagged badly and he hasn't had nearly the foals of the KY horses. He had a runner in the Japan Cup I think, and if he gets a big runner or two, his little progeny will be worth a lot more.

Daaher is similar - gets no respect at the sales but throws runners and

Birdstone has, on the other hand, thrown Classic winners, and still gets no respect, most likely be cause they don't look the part. They just run.

Fun time of the year if you have some money to throw around.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:32 am 
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Daaher has always been, in my opinion, a good value horse. I must say, though, I sure love my Birdstone colt! Hopefully I can afford to keep him. Might need a partner in him.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 11:09 am 
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well so much for Daaher; he's gone to Louisiana for 2019.

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 6:22 pm 
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well at least some of his weanlings and yearlings should still be around.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 7:17 pm 
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Any thoughts about Animal Kingdom? No where near matching the quality of his mares. Gotta believe Darley will move him elsewhere soon.

Also, Gio Pointi? I saw him in Ky a few years ago and liked what I saw. But the lack of support at $25k was well deserved and he's plummeted. Tough outcome for a major Breeders Cup Classic winner.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: 2019 Stud Fees
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2018 10:40 pm 
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Birdstone is like English Channel in that a savvy polo player or sponsor can pick up small, fast, sturdy and handy little horses at bargain basement prices, race them for fun if them want, and make good polo mounts when they're done racing.

Animal Kingdom -- went to stud in the wrong countries, full stop. France would have been a better option. With an average win distance of nearly 8f, and half his foals are 2yo, that says to me they want to run LOOOOOOOOOONG, which doesn't happen in the USA and isn't the main game in Australia, either. In France, he could have a go as a dual-purpose stallion.

Of the brigade of unproven stallions:

Frosted at $50k doesn't inspire. Yes, he ran lights-out in the Met Mile...and when he faced the top horses of his generation, he always came up short. Chrome handed Frosted his behind in the sandbox, he never got by Pharoah, he traded victories with Keen Ice. Arrogate plain old made him look slow. Even Shaman Ghost shook him off like a bad ex-boyfriend. Tapizar is bred on the same cross, sired a monster filly in Monomy Girl, is doing a reasonable job so far, and stands for $10k.

Speaking of Shaman Ghost, Stronach did him no favours by starting him out in California, even though he's from a deep old California family. Ghostzapper WAY upgraded the family, from listed class to multiple Gr-1 winner. He wasn't the most consistent winner, but he was consistently talented and IMO is priced appropriately at $7500.

As for California Chrome, if his close and not-so-close relations are any indication, I think he will need a very specific cluster of bloodlines in his mares: as much Commando as he can get...Sir Ivor, Bloodroot (Lalun, Bimelette, Never Bend, No Robbery), Tom Fool (Tim Tam, Buckpasser, Buckaroo, Jester), Deputy Minister (Awesome Again, Dehere, Touch Gold, Forest Camp, Silver Deputy), the Ciboulette family, and especially Dehere, Meadowlake, Ghostzapper, and Hold Your Peace...and it needs to be mares with genuine speed. If he gets that type of mare, he'll probably be fine. Will he get them? Maybe. At $35k he's a big risk but given that he had talent and his full siblings are showing talent, probably less of a risk than...

Arrogate at $75,000 and Liam's Map at $20,000. (There, I said it. Fight me. :) ) So far, Unbridled's Song has a pretty poor record as a sire of sires, with his two most consistent sons being Midshipman (standing for $8500) and Even the Score. With sons of dams like Take Charge Lady, a Gr-1 winning daughter of Toussaud, a Gr-1 winning half sister to a BC Distaff winner, and the dam of Honor Code all either sold overseas or off to a super-slow start, it's hard to see how the sons of a multiple Gr-3 winning mare who traces to Ta Wee and a listed stakes winning mare whose 2nd dam is Meadow Star will be any different. Arrogate is especially risky at that fee, particularly given that you can get Candy Ride, More Than Ready, or Speightstown for $5000 more.

And now the cat is telling me it's time to go to bed so I'm going to listen to her.


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