Lost in the Fog=Stallion?
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
Lost in the Fog=Stallion?
I need some help from the pros. Lets assume Lost goes on to wire the GG open or whatever garbage race is next,then heads to the King Bishop and crushes that field, then wins the Calder stake and then wins the BC Sprint and Post a Beyer of 120ish. Question 1: Does he come back as a 4 year old? Question 2: If not, What would be is syndicate worth and opening adverstised FEE?
hi freddymo
"Let's assume" (your words), that Lost In The Fog pulls off everything that you described for 2005...and it is understood at year's end that he is still capable of dominating at the elite level (at which he has become accustomed)...I'd recommend (under those conditions) that he DEFINITELY race at least another year (then reevaluate in 2006). The way I see it (at least right now, only 4 months into the year) is that there'd be very little downside...and possibly a big upside (although he should be properly insured for obvious reasons).
That being said...if Lost In The Fog pulls off a 2005 campaign as you outlined...and is retired for 2006...I suggest that Florida should be his destination (for a number of reasons)...not Lexington (unless of course it's a match and/or deal...made-in-heaven).
I'm confident that if LITF (accomplishes what you indicated and) stands at an appropriate and well-managed stallion facility in the sunshine state...he'd get serious attention...and should (if priced right etc) attract the quantity and quality of outside mares that could enhance his opportunities for success. LITF's connections could look to Ky as a possible future destination if his accomplishments as a sire warrant it...and possibly follow the path of recent Florida defector Northern Afleet (by Afleet). But for now...I suggest that if he pulls-off what your premise outlines...he could be a big fish in a little pond.
It's difficult to etch in stone what the "opening advertised fee" (as you wrote)...should be set at for 2006 (it's only April 2005). There are many factors that come into play...not the least of which is what he looks like on the end of a leadshank...the first and lasting impression(s) that he makes...who he defeated...his pedigree (as previously mentioned) etc etc. And (as is always the case)...the state of the industry (and the economy in general) etc at the time of his retirement will be important considerations. But for the sake of debate...I suggest that if he is retired for 2006 with the title of eclipse champion sprinter on his resume (which you did not indicate but such a race record suggests is possible)...and you want to attract significant outside support...and book the horse to a large number of mares...I expect that approx $10,000 to $15,000 might be a realistic stud fee range at which you might accomplish that. As for a syndication...I suggest that he'd probably attract strong interest in the $1.5 mil to $2.25 mil range...based on 50 fractional interests.
On the other hand...if Lost In The Fog pulls it all off in 2005 (as you describe)...is retired but is NOT the eclipse winner...but does look-the-part...probably $5,000 to $10,000 might be a realistic stud fee range which should attract significant outside support and a very solid Florida-book. I suggest that for syndication purposes...he'd probably also attract strong interest in the $750k to $1.5 mil range...based on 50 fractional interests.
But if he can come back and duplicate his 2005 efforts once again in 2006...WOW. He'd probably then have serious appeal in the bluegrass (although his pedigree [including his sire] would probably still hold him back to some extent). I expect that if he became eclipse award-winning sprinter in back-to-back years...he could probably stand for $15,000 to $25,000 stud fee in Lexington (and attract plenty of outside support)...although Florida might still be the best destination to start his career at stud. His syndication value might range from $2.25mil to $3.75mil.
Bottom-line though...all of these stud fee and syndication numbers would be subject to reevaluation and possible adjustment(s) based on circumstances...variables...etc at the time the stud fee and the price...terms...and conditions etc of the syndication are to be determined. And the accomplishmnets (and perception) pertaining to LITF's sire (Lost Soldier) at the time of his retirement could have a real affect on LITF's appeal as a young stallion also....possibly affecting stud fee and syndication numbers.
When it comes to stallions...the connections must never lose sight of what they're trying to accomplish. If a stallion is going to require significant outside support and if the intention is also to sell a significant number of fractional interests...the numbers must be very appealing.
freddymo...Lost In The Fog's a nice one...and All Things Considered...if he continues and is successful on the path that you suggest (and he is well managed) he could have lots of appeal...but the numbers MUST make sense.
Respectfully
"Let's assume" (your words), that Lost In The Fog pulls off everything that you described for 2005...and it is understood at year's end that he is still capable of dominating at the elite level (at which he has become accustomed)...I'd recommend (under those conditions) that he DEFINITELY race at least another year (then reevaluate in 2006). The way I see it (at least right now, only 4 months into the year) is that there'd be very little downside...and possibly a big upside (although he should be properly insured for obvious reasons).
That being said...if Lost In The Fog pulls off a 2005 campaign as you outlined...and is retired for 2006...I suggest that Florida should be his destination (for a number of reasons)...not Lexington (unless of course it's a match and/or deal...made-in-heaven).
I'm confident that if LITF (accomplishes what you indicated and) stands at an appropriate and well-managed stallion facility in the sunshine state...he'd get serious attention...and should (if priced right etc) attract the quantity and quality of outside mares that could enhance his opportunities for success. LITF's connections could look to Ky as a possible future destination if his accomplishments as a sire warrant it...and possibly follow the path of recent Florida defector Northern Afleet (by Afleet). But for now...I suggest that if he pulls-off what your premise outlines...he could be a big fish in a little pond.
It's difficult to etch in stone what the "opening advertised fee" (as you wrote)...should be set at for 2006 (it's only April 2005). There are many factors that come into play...not the least of which is what he looks like on the end of a leadshank...the first and lasting impression(s) that he makes...who he defeated...his pedigree (as previously mentioned) etc etc. And (as is always the case)...the state of the industry (and the economy in general) etc at the time of his retirement will be important considerations. But for the sake of debate...I suggest that if he is retired for 2006 with the title of eclipse champion sprinter on his resume (which you did not indicate but such a race record suggests is possible)...and you want to attract significant outside support...and book the horse to a large number of mares...I expect that approx $10,000 to $15,000 might be a realistic stud fee range at which you might accomplish that. As for a syndication...I suggest that he'd probably attract strong interest in the $1.5 mil to $2.25 mil range...based on 50 fractional interests.
On the other hand...if Lost In The Fog pulls it all off in 2005 (as you describe)...is retired but is NOT the eclipse winner...but does look-the-part...probably $5,000 to $10,000 might be a realistic stud fee range which should attract significant outside support and a very solid Florida-book. I suggest that for syndication purposes...he'd probably also attract strong interest in the $750k to $1.5 mil range...based on 50 fractional interests.
But if he can come back and duplicate his 2005 efforts once again in 2006...WOW. He'd probably then have serious appeal in the bluegrass (although his pedigree [including his sire] would probably still hold him back to some extent). I expect that if he became eclipse award-winning sprinter in back-to-back years...he could probably stand for $15,000 to $25,000 stud fee in Lexington (and attract plenty of outside support)...although Florida might still be the best destination to start his career at stud. His syndication value might range from $2.25mil to $3.75mil.
Bottom-line though...all of these stud fee and syndication numbers would be subject to reevaluation and possible adjustment(s) based on circumstances...variables...etc at the time the stud fee and the price...terms...and conditions etc of the syndication are to be determined. And the accomplishmnets (and perception) pertaining to LITF's sire (Lost Soldier) at the time of his retirement could have a real affect on LITF's appeal as a young stallion also....possibly affecting stud fee and syndication numbers.
When it comes to stallions...the connections must never lose sight of what they're trying to accomplish. If a stallion is going to require significant outside support and if the intention is also to sell a significant number of fractional interests...the numbers must be very appealing.
freddymo...Lost In The Fog's a nice one...and All Things Considered...if he continues and is successful on the path that you suggest (and he is well managed) he could have lots of appeal...but the numbers MUST make sense.
Respectfully
Last edited by FOS on Tue Apr 19, 2005 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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roving boy
- Allowance Winner
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I think that if LITF pulls off everything Freddymo projects in 2005 he would without question be the Champion Sprinter. As such he would stand in KY for $15,000 to $25,000 if Aleo decided to retire/sell him.
Although LITF may be by Lost Soldier, he is a grandson of Danzig and his offspring would be in great demand by pinhookers, who drive the commercial market. He would be extremely commercial if his 2005 campaign had the results Freddymo projects.
Aleo has already turned down some incredible offers and is not interested in breeding the horse, nor does he need the money. His comment is "no matter what they paid for him, I would not be able to replace him as a racehorse". I think Aleo may race LITF in 2006 if there is no sign of diminished ability.
But then again.....it would be one hellluva lot of money if LITF does it all!
Although LITF may be by Lost Soldier, he is a grandson of Danzig and his offspring would be in great demand by pinhookers, who drive the commercial market. He would be extremely commercial if his 2005 campaign had the results Freddymo projects.
Aleo has already turned down some incredible offers and is not interested in breeding the horse, nor does he need the money. His comment is "no matter what they paid for him, I would not be able to replace him as a racehorse". I think Aleo may race LITF in 2006 if there is no sign of diminished ability.
But then again.....it would be one hellluva lot of money if LITF does it all!
Roving Boy
hi guys
I suggest that when determining what a stallion should stand for...there is an awful lot to consider. I suggested that if LITF pulls off what freddymo asks us to assume (plus wins the eclipse)...that $15,000 might be viable and that "an appropriate and well-managed stallion facility in the sunshine state" might be his best place to start his career at stud. I also suggested that a lot (pertaining to his initial stud fee and syndication price) would depend on what he looks like...who he defeated...his pedigree etc etc etc and the state of the industry and economy (in general) at that time.
roving boy wrote..."I think that if LITF pulls off everything Freddymo projects in 2005 he would without question be the Champion Sprinter. As such he would stand in KY for $15,000 to $25,000 if Aleo decided to retire/sell him."
Kentucky versus Florida is a choice that LITF's owner(s) are certainly entitled to make...as is the stud fee...but I strongly suggest that (eclipse or not) Florida would be a much better place for the horse to start his career at stud than Ky...for a number of reasons.
Now assuming that LITF won the eclipse for 2005 sprinter...I suggest...that if filling his book (which by 2005 and probably 2006 standards would arguably be at least 100 to 125 mares...as long as he could handle it) would (for the most part) be dependant on OUTSIDE SUPPORT, it might take nothing short of a magician (or maybe a hypnotist with pen-and-contract-in-hand) to pull that off at a stud fee in excess of $15k (up to $25k as roving boy wrote). Maybe it could be done...but I am confident that discounts and deals-galore would be flying (and would be more and more generous the further the stud fee distanced itself from $15,000) in an effort to fill his book. Remember...this is a son of Lost Soldier out of a Dr Carter mare...that's out of a Maribeau mare...that's out of a Native Charger...arguably not the easiest sell.
Regarding Lost Soldier...he'd have to be evaluated at the time LITF is retired...but I suggest that any 15-year-old stallion who stands for $7,500...and whose lifetime averages (per TB-Times Auction Review 1/1/2005) are...weanlings $9,798...yearlings $15,643...two-year-olds $30,588...and percentage of stakes winners is 4%...is not exactly on (or anywhere near) the top of everyone's short-list of important sires. And he has done nothing (at least yet) to indicate that he may be an important (or even average) sire of sires. That might be difficult to accomplish...it appears that his stakes-winning sons (which number a very few) have all been gelded (per TB-Times 2005 stallion directory) with the exception of LITF.
The stud fees I suggested are based on a number of assumptions...not the least of which are 1/ the need to sell a LOT of seasons, and 2/ while attempting to attract a FULL BOOK of OUTSIDE mares for LITF, we don't want to be DISCOUNTING him.
My theory is price him right...and when in doubt lower is better than higher. Don't squeeze the lemon dry (as Horatio Luro would say).
Respectfully
I suggest that when determining what a stallion should stand for...there is an awful lot to consider. I suggested that if LITF pulls off what freddymo asks us to assume (plus wins the eclipse)...that $15,000 might be viable and that "an appropriate and well-managed stallion facility in the sunshine state" might be his best place to start his career at stud. I also suggested that a lot (pertaining to his initial stud fee and syndication price) would depend on what he looks like...who he defeated...his pedigree etc etc etc and the state of the industry and economy (in general) at that time.
roving boy wrote..."I think that if LITF pulls off everything Freddymo projects in 2005 he would without question be the Champion Sprinter. As such he would stand in KY for $15,000 to $25,000 if Aleo decided to retire/sell him."
Kentucky versus Florida is a choice that LITF's owner(s) are certainly entitled to make...as is the stud fee...but I strongly suggest that (eclipse or not) Florida would be a much better place for the horse to start his career at stud than Ky...for a number of reasons.
Now assuming that LITF won the eclipse for 2005 sprinter...I suggest...that if filling his book (which by 2005 and probably 2006 standards would arguably be at least 100 to 125 mares...as long as he could handle it) would (for the most part) be dependant on OUTSIDE SUPPORT, it might take nothing short of a magician (or maybe a hypnotist with pen-and-contract-in-hand) to pull that off at a stud fee in excess of $15k (up to $25k as roving boy wrote). Maybe it could be done...but I am confident that discounts and deals-galore would be flying (and would be more and more generous the further the stud fee distanced itself from $15,000) in an effort to fill his book. Remember...this is a son of Lost Soldier out of a Dr Carter mare...that's out of a Maribeau mare...that's out of a Native Charger...arguably not the easiest sell.
Regarding Lost Soldier...he'd have to be evaluated at the time LITF is retired...but I suggest that any 15-year-old stallion who stands for $7,500...and whose lifetime averages (per TB-Times Auction Review 1/1/2005) are...weanlings $9,798...yearlings $15,643...two-year-olds $30,588...and percentage of stakes winners is 4%...is not exactly on (or anywhere near) the top of everyone's short-list of important sires. And he has done nothing (at least yet) to indicate that he may be an important (or even average) sire of sires. That might be difficult to accomplish...it appears that his stakes-winning sons (which number a very few) have all been gelded (per TB-Times 2005 stallion directory) with the exception of LITF.
The stud fees I suggested are based on a number of assumptions...not the least of which are 1/ the need to sell a LOT of seasons, and 2/ while attempting to attract a FULL BOOK of OUTSIDE mares for LITF, we don't want to be DISCOUNTING him.
My theory is price him right...and when in doubt lower is better than higher. Don't squeeze the lemon dry (as Horatio Luro would say).
Respectfully
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roving boy
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 294
- Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:18 pm
- Location: Kentucky
I agree with FOS that pricing slightly below market is a better strategy than pricing at market.
I also cannot say that starting in FL may not be better for LITF long term than starting in KY.
However, knowing the competition for stallion prospects (especially those with "buzz"), and knowing that LITF's owner has no interest in the stallion business, there will be a lot of money thrown his way if LITF does all projected by Freddymo and becomes the Eclipse Champion Sprinter.
Lets compare new stallions in 2005:
Candy Ride - brilliant but only 3 starts in US and as an older horse - $10,000 in KY without any recognizable pedigree and very little "buzz".
The Cliff's Edge - solid performer that disappointed in the Triple Crown; son of Gulch, not a hot sire of sires, but a grandson of Mr. P; not a "buzz" horse; $20,000 in KY.
Congaree - great racehorse that never won an Eclipse award; by a failed stallion; $15,000 in KY.
A more difficult comparison that does have similarities may be Orientate:
Champion Sprinter by a very good sire, albeit an unsuccessful sire of sires; not quite as good of a physical horse as LITF; never a 'Buzz" horse; stands in KY for $25,000.
LITF is undefeated, freaky fast with phenomenal Beyer and Rag numbers.
There is a lot to promote!
I also cannot say that starting in FL may not be better for LITF long term than starting in KY.
However, knowing the competition for stallion prospects (especially those with "buzz"), and knowing that LITF's owner has no interest in the stallion business, there will be a lot of money thrown his way if LITF does all projected by Freddymo and becomes the Eclipse Champion Sprinter.
Lets compare new stallions in 2005:
Candy Ride - brilliant but only 3 starts in US and as an older horse - $10,000 in KY without any recognizable pedigree and very little "buzz".
The Cliff's Edge - solid performer that disappointed in the Triple Crown; son of Gulch, not a hot sire of sires, but a grandson of Mr. P; not a "buzz" horse; $20,000 in KY.
Congaree - great racehorse that never won an Eclipse award; by a failed stallion; $15,000 in KY.
A more difficult comparison that does have similarities may be Orientate:
Champion Sprinter by a very good sire, albeit an unsuccessful sire of sires; not quite as good of a physical horse as LITF; never a 'Buzz" horse; stands in KY for $25,000.
LITF is undefeated, freaky fast with phenomenal Beyer and Rag numbers.
There is a lot to promote!
Roving Boy
Roving Boy I agree with you as I think FOS comments are more what he would pay to be part of the syndicate and or what he would send a mare to LITF.
FOS Why would someone offer 2.5mil for him if he did not already have 1plus in residual value already?
My feeling was that at the end of the 05 campaign as described he would be a 5 to 6 mil animal? Standing in KY for 20 to 25k
FOS Why would someone offer 2.5mil for him if he did not already have 1plus in residual value already?
My feeling was that at the end of the 05 campaign as described he would be a 5 to 6 mil animal? Standing in KY for 20 to 25k