Shots for the Belmont

[hdembski]

Giacomo and Alex may finish 1-2 in the belmont but let's try and find some long shots. I like Reverberate. He has the right dosage to like the added ground (1.11 0.30) and the breeding is solid. Thunder Gulch on top, but i love the bottom. Proud Truth who won 2.1 million and Far Beyond who is out of great horse Nijinsky & Soaring who is Dam of Mehmet and Granddam of Ballade. Another shot i'll look at is Indy Storm who will be severely tested for class but is bred to be any kind. AP Arrow & Nolan's Cat can continue to improve and are solidly bred. Don't ignore Reverberate who lost to Monster Oratory.

[Bill from WA]

AP Arrow.

[Tairaterces]

I'll take Chekhov.

T

[hdembski]

Never seen a Pulpit get that distance, although a very classy female family

[Bill from WA]

I just did a conduit profile on Reverberate and he definitely has the aptitude to get 12 furlongs. Very dangerous.

Bill

[Coquinerie]

I would say A.P. Arrow and Reverberate... although I think Chekhov has a nice chance as well. And I never count out any Maria's Mon offspring going a distance and he has one in it as well.

[Sam]

Never seen a Pulpit get that distance

and I doubt you ever will

[sb]

I think Afleet Alex is going to blow them all away. I just love this guy and the way he ran in the heat practicing long distance, lol.

But then, if Giacomo makes it first to the finish line, this might give my mare Captive Pro a bit more clout, since her broodmare sire is Great Above. Not much, just a little? Somehow though, I don't have the kind of gut feeling for Giacomo as I have for Alfeet Alex. Here are two jockeys who know their horses very well and the horses know them.... Should be interesting.
If some other horse comes and steels it, I'd be disappointed only in as much as i think both Giacomo and Afleet Alex deserve to do well as they have endured so far.

SB

[Joe]

The word is that a lot of big-circuit riders on horses with no shot will make sure Jeremy Rose doesn't win.

[sb]

The word is that a lot of big-circuit riders on horses with no shot will make sure Jeremy Rose doesn't win.

The advantage of a 1.5 mile race is that such games are harder to play, and I'm sure every jockey knows what's at stake for playing 'dirty.' But then, horse racing is horse racing, and the pedigree of each horse is sitting on someone's desk....

SB

[Sam]

I'm with hdembski. The more I look at it, the more I like Reverberate. The only other one that gets my attention is AP Arrow. If he runs like he has been though, Alex is going to be tough to beat.

I'll be wasting all my betting bux on Smoocher in the Berkeley at GGF and Hasty Kris in the Ack Ack at HP ... good luck tomorrow folks.

[StrawberryFelidos]

The word is that a lot of big-circuit riders on horses with no shot will make sure Jeremy Rose doesn't win.

In other words, the Belmont tradition will continue Waste the Favorite... I hear that was the game RH10 and Eddington were playing last year, *tisk tisk*

For betting picks: I say if Alex and Giacomo don't fire the race is wide open, so feel free to put $2 on the longest shot on the board- whoever he is he's got as good a shot as any
Geez, nearly two-thirds have either won nothing other than a maiden or are maidens still (go maiden, go maiden, make me some mulah...)

[Swaps1955]

Bill, I'm with you on A.P. Arrow if someone other than the top couple pull it off. I bet on him (and I rarely bet) in the Santa Anita Derby, because you just can't let Lukas pull off odds like that with a horse of that breeding and gorgeousness! Lost my money, but not my interest in the horse. It will be interesting to see what comes of A.P. Arrow when the Triple Crown series settles down. He has the breeding for turf or dirt and to pull off top notch races.

[pistol]

I thought Reverberate, Chekhov, Indy Storm and Nolans Cat looked the best breeding wise for the Belmont. Reverberate had problems that day and was not ready. Two of the others did well.

[sb]

For whatever my amateur opinion is worth, I think too much emphasis is put on pedigree and not enough on good training and planning. Stamina is something that can be built up to a certain extent, just as speed can be by way of systematic training. A horse such as Afleet Alex which rates well and 'understands' the game plan, and is guided by a good jockey will always do better, lest he's got a physical problem as did Afleet Alex in one of his races and perhaps Giacomo has had a flipped pallet?
Maybe trainers should look more closely at interval training, but that takes a lot more time and knowledge, and running 1.5 miles isn't anything our modern race horses are often required to do. So, to win in he Belmont is the icing on the cake for a race horse, but it doesn't appear to be a big 'deal' when the horse goes into the breeding shed. And while Afleet Alex is a superb horse and most interesting to me because of the training he is receiving, Giacomo, possibly the lesser horse, will be remembered as the 05 Kentucky Derbv winner, a race which involves perhaps more luck and guts than real talent?
Don't get me wrong here, please: getting any horse to win a couple of good stakes races or even place in them well, is a great achievement in and of itself, so I'm not belittling any of these good colts. Wouldn't you wish you had any of the 'also ran' in your barn, lol?

SB