Who's going to win the Belmonnt?

[bcassidy]

Afleet Alex has developed a pattern of bouncing off of big efforts (like his Preakness win) and I am not crazy about Rose in this 1 and a half mile race, as much as I will be rooting for AA, he has his work cut out for him. There is no doubt in my mind that he is the best horse in the race but the best horse doesn't always win----as we all know.

I like Southern Africa, Giacomo and Pinpoint to complete the superfecta with Afleet Alex and I will probably box these four horses. What do other's think?

[EyeforGlory]

I don't know. I was hoping( ?) for Scrappy T.

[FOS]

hi bcassidy

As you know...going a mile and a half can be grueling, and unexpected results don't seem to be that rare.

How about a "Bud' longshot...A.P. Arrow.

And what about boxing Afleet Alex...A.P. Arrow...Giacomo and Pinpoint.

Afleet Alex' rider Jeremy Rose commented in a Friday interview with ESPN's Jeanine Edwards (at Belmont Park) that if he's within 5 lengths of the leader...he doesn't believe that any other horse can outrun him the last quarter...

...I guess that means if he's within 5, Rose expects that Alex will run the leader down and win.
After hearing that it'll be particularly interesting to see how the race unfolds...should be fun to watch.

Best to you.

Respectfully

[bcassidy]

FOS--I hope they don't cook AA in the process. It sounds like Ritchey and Rose believe their mount is better conditioned than the others in this field and that in a heads up race to the wire they will prevail. It's all about the pace and ground loss. Let's see what happens. It should be fun to watch. He could win by 15 or lose by 10 and it wouldn't surprise me either way. I will be rooting for him.

[StrawberryFelidos]

Now here's the question- I've heard from handicappers that there doesn't seem to be much pace in the race (because Going Wild and Rabbit took a break , but seriously ) so if there isn't any pace in the race how can they "cook" a come-from-behinder like Alex? It was easy to do with pace stalkers like Smarty and Funny Cide, but as long as the horse isn't rank or the jockey doesn't do something stupid and try to wire the field I don't understand how he can be pressured- how can you pressure a horse at the back of the field?
PS- you know who I think woulda made this race *really* interesting? Spanish Chestnut Watch the horses plod home after the fastest mile in Belmont history...

[griff]

I like the pedigree of Andromeda's Hero.

griff

[JR]

Go Giacomo !!

[Shepdog]

*laughs* I remember reading this before the race.

Afleet Alex' rider Jeremy Rose commented in a Friday interview with ESPN's Jeanine Edwards (at Belmont Park) that if he's within 5 lengths of the leader...he doesn't believe that any other horse can outrun him the last quarter...

I was like... huh, that's an interesting statement to make.

So... did Jeremy Rose call that? He was five lengths from the lead at the mile... and during the last quarter, nope, no one could outrun him, could they? Obviously, he really knows his horse and what he can do.

[Double_Jay]

Afleet Alex has developed a pattern of bouncing off of big efforts (like his Preakness win)

Huh????

and I am not crazy about Rose in this 1 and a half mile race, as much as I will be rooting for AA, he has his work cut out for him.

Huh?????

[sb]

[quote="FOS"]hi bcassidy



Afleet Alex' rider Jeremy Rose commented in a Friday interview with ESPN's Jeanine Edwards (at Belmont Park) that if he's within 5 lengths of the leader...he doesn't believe that any other horse can outrun him the last quarter...

WOW. And that's almost exactly how it went. Neat!!

SB

[bcassidy]

Double Jay--Alex certainly didn't bounce and Rose executed a perfect trip, saved ground and didn't get involved in a fast pace, just the way it is supposed to be done, congratulations to Ritchie and Rose.

[Double_Jay]

Double Jay--Alex certainly didn't bounce and Rose executed a perfect trip, saved ground and didn't get involved in a fast pace, just the way it is supposed to be done, congratulations to Ritchie and Rose.

I've watched every race of Alex's that's ever been televised and I've never seen any indication of a bounce, except for bouncing forward. He's never regressed. I was just wondering how you could say he "has a pattern of bouncing"?

[Sam]

I've watched every race of Alex's that's ever been televised and I've never seen any indication of a bounce, except for bouncing forward. He's never regressed. I was just wondering how you could say he "has a pattern of bouncing"?

Because his recent form would suggest he does.

5Mar05 Mountain Valley Stk. Beyer fig of 106 in victory
16Mar05 Rebel Stk. Beyer fig of 74 in defeat
16Apr05 Arkansas Derby Beyer fig of 108 in victory
7May05 Kentucky Derby Beyer fig of 99 in defeat
21May05 Preakness Beyer fig of 112 in victory

Recent form suggested he was prime for a sub 100 Beyer and defeat, especially since each of those 100+ were his lifetime best. Essentially, he would run his lifetime best race ever, bounce and then come back to run his lifetime best race ever.

This is the first time he's run a better fig and a winning race back to back since he was a 2yo, and even then he had a mild history of irradict figures (they just didn't matter then because he was still winning and clearly superior to what he was facing).

[bcassidy]

double jay- I base my comments on the work which comes out of the speed sheets. If you are not familiar with them you can go to this website and look at their race of the week, the belmont stakes, it is free and it provides great insight into a horses actual performance. When you get to AA's sheet you will see a definite pattern this year of good race followed by poor race. The horse which ran the fastest race doesn't always win but I hope you already knew that. There are many variables that contribute to a win, post position, track variant, wind, track condition, weight carried, ground loss, dead rail, etc, etc. The website is www.thorograph.com. Feel free to ask me any questions after you have looked at this site and I will try to answer them for you. I have been using the sheets for over 15 years and consider myself a fairly good handicapper.

[bcassidy]

strawberry-other trainers and jockeys can read a form also and sometimes when there is no apparant speed in a race several will think it is a great time to go for the lead ---so you get a wildly fast pace scenario and it sets up beautifully for a closer. Obviously the reverse is also true, when there appears to be a lot of speed in the race sometimes everyone holds back and some horse gets loose on an easy lead and goes wire to wire in very pedestrian splits. The old adage---pace makes the race is as accurate today as when it was first uttered. If you have read some of my other posts you will know I am a huge believer in ground saved and in my opinion (along with the ability to pace a race properly for their mount) the two most important factors in separating good jockeys from bad jockeys. Bad jockeys usually get the pace wrong and invariably their mounts travel further than the other horses in the race because they don't know how to save ground. My comment about "I hope they don't cook AA in the process stemmed from Rose's comment before the race. I thought he was saying there was no pace in the race and they were going to stay very close to the front runner-- who ever it was. I was very glad Rose didn't do that and stayed comfortably off the pace while saving as much as ground as possible. It was the correct strategy for this race and distance and Rose executed it perfectly. The Belmont has a long history of less experienced jockeys (at the mile and a half distance) blowing the pace and losing lots of ground in the process. Look at last years Belmont as a case in point.