keeneland jan

[Morningside]

how much do you think these lots will go for? 137, 176, 416, 449, 571

[HR LLC]

I wonder how much Island Fashion will go for. That race she in the 2004 Big Cap is still fresh in my mind. She almost got to Southern Image that day.

[Morningside]

Island Fashion will go for about 2M...

Seriously, can someone please help me put a value on these lots? I'm trying to see which one will fit my budget...

what i'm thinking is:
137 - $175,000
176 - $120,000
416 - $300,000??
449 - $100,000
571 - $150,000??

if i'm way off, can someone please tell me...

[LSB]

OK, this is off the top of my head...meaning I've given it about 20 seconds of thought so take it for what it's worth.

#137. She's 19 and has a late cover date. She should go for approx the value of her unborn foal, but Stonerside won't let her go too cheap. I'm guessing around 50K.

#176. 125-150K

#416. She'll probably be bought back for 175-200K.

#449. Another 19YO, an even later cover date. Maybe 50K.

#571. This one will be the highest price of the bunch.

[Morningside]

thanks for the appraisal FSB... great help

[Pete]

Hi Morningside and LSB,

I valued hip #137 on another thread (about Secretariat mares) at $300,000. This is a G1/G3 producer and her daughter a G3 producer and the foals all won a lot cash. LSB, is the value of a Lion Heart out of this mare $50k?

#176 Graded stakes winner is on her 11th straight foal and is 'just' 16. Solid producer with pedigree and when all her daughters foals hit the track this could be a major mare (she has 7 daughters - all young). Late cover date and Forest Wildcat do put a ceiling on her price. Gone West isn't a help and later development of foals keep her @$160,000. This is exactly the stage of potential that you look for to buy.

#416 She has to be one of Mtoto's best daughters in the shed. On her 6th straight, later cover but the Giant's Causeway in the belly is what counts - it will be 1/2 to 2 G1 winners! Strong pipeline. Her production carries the pedigree. I wouldn't pay anywhere near this price but I believe she'll bring @$550,000.

#449 Graded stakes winner on her 7th straight foal with very late cover. Has 6 daughters, 2 producers but no stakes production yet. Good quality production and a lot of winners for her but only stakes-placed. Age hurts with late cover. Deeper pedigree is mostly blue collar. She's had some better than average prices but $4.4 million for Shah Jehan!!! Weak production by daughters is a major minus.
@$110,000.

#571 Entirely Euro breeding - wrong place to be selling her. Her generation is white but 2 sisters are major SW producers. Pipeline is weak, but Elocutionist's Juddmonte win marks him as special. Only 12 years old, i/f to Montjeu a huge plue but cover date hurts. @450,000.

[LSB]

I valued hip #137 on another thread (about Secretariat mares) at $300,000. This is a G1/G3 producer and her daughter a G3 producer and the foals all won a lot cash. LSB, is the value of a Lion Heart out of this mare $50k?

No, and you're right to call me on it.

What I meant to type--but didn't obviously--was not that she would go for a bit more than the value of the foal, but rather a bit more than the value of the stud fee, which is 30K.

I still don't think people are going to pay mid-six figures for mares this old. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

By the way, #416 is out of the sale.

[Pete]

Hi LSB,

I wasn't trying to do anything more than point out an elite mare who will have her price modified by her age. This is a big time mare and her foals will be valuable - especially her daughters.

Chosen Lady (hip #137) is old (19) and has a late cover date but everything else about this mare is exciting.

She's carrying her 6th straight and 14th foal in 15 years. Her seven foals from 1993 to 1999 were all born between 4/20 and 5/18 - meaning similar (or later) covers to her current one. She foaled on May 3rd in 2005 and was almost certainly back in foal on one cover, probably not losing a single day. She's an amazing breeder.

She's a winner by Secretariat, full sister to 2 graded SWs and half to another out of a winning Mr. Prospector mare who's a full sister to SW Rare Performer and 2 other SWs. The right names working beautifully in her pedigree. The family shows inherited affinities that make planning successful matings easier since she produced G3 winner In Contention with Devil's Bag based on her G3 winning half sister, Good Mood (herself a multiple stakes producer that doesn't fit the catalog page), also by Devil's Bag.

She's produced G1 winner of $500k, a G3 winner of $300k+ and two other stakes placed runners. Seven of her foals have run at 2, 4 were winners with 1 SW and 2 stakes-placed.

Her first daughter is already a graded SW Producer and all of the females under her are being bred to the best. She also has 2 young, well bred fillies who will certainly hit the shed in the coming years.

Lion Heart stands for (only) $30K but his immense book (233 mares bred in 2005) indicates an insatiable appetite (at this moment). Even with all those mares there will be few with her proven record made available in foal.

It's a rare opportunity to purchase a top production mare with a thick, quality pedigree that might well have 2 or even 3 more foals based on her breeding record. Of course being a daughter of Big Red doesn't hurt.

Regards,

Pete

[LSB]

Pete, I'm not arguing with you at all about the quality of that mare. It's the current market's attitude toward age that I think is going to keep her price down. That and the fact that the prospective buyer may be looking at footing the bill for years of retirement sooner rather than later (come on, let me be optimistic about that--I would so like to think that someone will give that mare a well deserved and happy retirement rather than throwing her back in another sale...perhaps a lower quality one than this one. Actually with her record, I'm annoyed she's even in this sale...but that's a whole other issue.)

I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

[Pete]

Hi LSB,

My apologies because I don't mean to argue at all and certainly must seem to be doing just that. I enjoyed writing about this lovely mare is all.

You may be right that she'll be 'punished' in the sale because of her age, not just 'hurt'. The daughters of some sires, like Secretariat, rarely, if ever, especially if they're special as she is.

Regards,

Pete

P.S.: Please tell Twigs to have a good 2006!

[Pete]

Hi LSB,

You were on the mark that age, amplified by cover date, would be the main consideration in the sales of these Secretariat daughters. I was far off on Chosen Lady and Secret Imperatrice.

Chosen Lady was a wonderful purchase for Dromoland. I bid well under the sales price, but that was my budget. I intended to send her to Medaglia D'Oro in 2006. He could have been a free season (because she's a G1 producer) and I like the genetic balance for a resulting daughter.

For the cost ($1) of a breeding record and a look at her photo and Female Family in our database you can understand her worth and see why her age and cover date aren't as meaningful as they would be for most broodmares.

I don't wish to sound like a broken record but the opportunity to purchase a mare of this quality, a potential foundation mare, while still breeding viably is incredibly rare, let alone at a price that the first foal should more than cover. Many of the top rhoroughbred operations have been founded on the purchase of one special mare and I believe that we'll look back years from now and see Chosen Lady in that light.

Regards,

Pete

[sunday_silence]

Pete, am I understanding correctly that you tried to get her, but were unsuccessful?

Wonder if the mare would've brought more in November. If she'd been 10 or 12, instead of 19, I guess she'd have gone higher. But, after seeing her in person and seeing her catalog page, I think she was a great buy, even at 19. Just hope she's given a nice retirement at the end of her breeding career.

[Morningside]

my partner and i went up to 125K for chosen lady yesterday... in hindsight, i think 170K was still a decent price
we also bid on 449 today but my partner messed up thinking we were bidding against reserve only to find out seller lowered the reserve just before the mare went into the ring... partner thought 449 was spectacular, looked like a 12/13 YO. it really was a bummer - we were prepared to go to 110K for her, but we thought we could save some money buying her privately if she got bought back...

[Pete]

Hi Sunday_Silence and Morningside,

My bid was just under Morningsides'! ($120k). If Chosen Lady was sold @12 (in 1999) her page would lack her SW granddaughter, Multiple Choice, and her later 2 stakes-placed foals, Fine And Dandy (she was in-foal with at the time) and Oude. She was in foal to Danzig @ the same date, 5/28, as she is now. In 1998 her daughter, Well Chosen, had won the G1 Ashland Stakes - a recent G1 winner is golden. Danzig is a far cry from Lion Heart and would have added heavily to her price that I believe would have been over $1,000,000.

Morningside, I don't think you messed up on #449. @$95k was a good price, not a special one. Shah Jehan (her 1999) was an abberation @ $4,400,000. Tale Of The Cat is cooling and the cover too late. She's a good looking mare but not as good as Chosen lady (#137) who is the same age. I have 2 people looking at the older mares who are incredible at evaluating a mares' ability to continue breeding and both feel that Chosen Lady has 3-4 more foals and this is supported by her record and that of her dam (with a 2005 foal at age 24). Historically for Chosen Lady the 5/28 cover was normal and not late.

I think you would need 2 foals to get out of Voodoo Lily to be profitable while I suspect you're in profit from 1 with Chosen Lady. If Voodoo Lily's 4yo (of 2006) filly, Magical Illusion returns and wins a graded stakes then you would have it made. At age 19, without the appeal of Chosen Lady, I need to be out with the first foal.

Another mare that I wanted, behind Chosen Lady, was Double Sixes (#176). I posted that she'd go for $170k and she went for $175k. I never got a bid in but was willing to go to $100k hoping that the small problems, sire, cover sire and date might hold her back. Her 7 daughters make her a great potential to become a very important mare. Her pipeline is solid and her foals pedigree (see hip #177) are select sale material. The ONLY problem with her are fair prices on her own foals (seem to have been sold selectively) and her daughters that are breeding are off to a rocky start - it could be said that she too started a little slow. 3 sisters are stakes producers.

Regards,

Pete

[Morningside]

any thoughts on 789? i quite like her, but her reserve was set way too high the last time she was put thru the ring... i wonder if they're gonna be more reasonable this time