I admit I am new to learning my bloodlines of horses, after spending so much time on the "front end" of the sport if you will. but something just gets to me that i can't seem to figure out, not trying to be sarcastc, I really just don't get it.
Take AP Indy. Royally bred.. doesn't get much better. Seattle Slew out of Weekend surprise (SECRETARIAT).
First of all, looking at all of weekend surprises progeny, BY FAR her two of her best best horses were bred by whom? Seattle Slew, in AP Indy and Weekend in Seattle. Honor Grades was by Storm Bird, wasn't a bad horse.
However, her maiting career was squandered by breading to Storm Cat blood, more times than not to him himself about half her career.. only one was anywhere near runner, and that's Honor Grades, and that was not even by storm cat.
not a knock on storm cat in the least but, but you just don't take the two best horses and put them together.. bloodlines have to compliment each other. It's obvious that the Seattle slew/Secretariat lines do just that.
Fast forward to now. Take her daughter.. Welcome Suprise out of Seeking the gold.. blue blood in her own right
She was somewhat of a runner.. good enough to attrack whatever stallion she wanted.
If I owned this mare, I would be camped out at AP Indy's shed year round to get first dibs to bread this horse to her. You are crossing the Secretariat/ AP Indy lines right back, a generation removed, but it's not like AP Indy couldn't run nor Welcome surprise?
What do they do with her?
Mr Sekiguchi is what they did with her. Twice actually. Bred to Storm Cat both times.
What's worse is someone paid 8 million dollars for something that is a PROVEN unknown. This mares mother didn't do well with Storm Cat, so let's pay 8 million for this colt by weekend surprises daughter.
Now many I am missing something, I probably am, but more so than not, people keep breeding with horses that have proven not to create runners with this particular horse.
what do they do with her?
explaoin this to me
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn, Diane
Hi Bdw,
If you're suggesting breeding Welcome Surprise to A.P. Indy that would be a 2x2 Weekend Surprise cross and that's intense inbreeding that's not usually done. If I'm advising inbreeding I still want to see a good percentage of unique ancestors in the 9 generation pedigree and this mating would be @38%, an incredibly low perentage in modern thoroughbreds.
I understand the concept but in practice it's not very successful. Flagette, dam of Herbager, was an unraced daughter of Escamillo (by Firadaussi) out of Fidgette (by Firadaussi) and so she's 2x2 Firadaussi (@36% unique ancestors). She's an example of having impact in the following generation after an intense inbreeding.
Quiet American is an example of an intensely inbred stallion that's had success (2x3 Dr. Fager and 3x4 Cequillo) but he still represents @50% unique ancestors.
Regards,
Pete
If you're suggesting breeding Welcome Surprise to A.P. Indy that would be a 2x2 Weekend Surprise cross and that's intense inbreeding that's not usually done. If I'm advising inbreeding I still want to see a good percentage of unique ancestors in the 9 generation pedigree and this mating would be @38%, an incredibly low perentage in modern thoroughbreds.
I understand the concept but in practice it's not very successful. Flagette, dam of Herbager, was an unraced daughter of Escamillo (by Firadaussi) out of Fidgette (by Firadaussi) and so she's 2x2 Firadaussi (@36% unique ancestors). She's an example of having impact in the following generation after an intense inbreeding.
Quiet American is an example of an intensely inbred stallion that's had success (2x3 Dr. Fager and 3x4 Cequillo) but he still represents @50% unique ancestors.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
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bdw0617
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you took the post a little to literary, but that's to be xpected when it comes to breeding, because it's very technical.
I'm more concerned about breeding to say, storm cat when he has proven NOT to produce runners with a certain line.. I used Weekend surprise without looking at her back pedigree but of course you are 100% correct.
I'm more concerned about breeding to say, storm cat when he has proven NOT to produce runners with a certain line.. I used Weekend surprise without looking at her back pedigree but of course you are 100% correct.
Re: explaoin this to me
Hi Bdw,
When you put it like this I have to take you literally.
You answered your own question. They got $8,000,000 for the horse. We can knock the breeders because the resulting foal wasn't special as a performer but they sold well and if Mr. Sekiguchi had been a top runner they'd have been a genius - now they're just wealthy.
Regards,
Pete
bdw0617 wrote:If I owned this mare, I would be camped out at AP Indy's shed year round to get first dibs to bread this horse to her. You are crossing the Secretariat/ AP Indy lines right back, a generation removed, but it's not like AP Indy couldn't run nor Welcome surprise?
When you put it like this I have to take you literally.
bdw0617 wrote:What do they do with her?
Mr Sekiguchi is what they did with her. Twice actually. Bred to Storm Cat both times.
What's worse is someone paid 8 million dollars for something that is a PROVEN unknown. This mares mother didn't do well with Storm Cat, so let's pay 8 million for this colt by weekend surprises daughter.
You answered your own question. They got $8,000,000 for the horse. We can knock the breeders because the resulting foal wasn't special as a performer but they sold well and if Mr. Sekiguchi had been a top runner they'd have been a genius - now they're just wealthy.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
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bdw0617
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I can understand what YOU are saying, but what I am saying is there is pretty darn good evidence, in the form of horses that can't beat a USPS truck in a sprint, that crossing SS and storm cat don't work. yet they still get 8 million dollars for the horse?
It has nothing to do with price. Better than Honur is in foal to AP Indy.. let's say it's a colt, and he looks great and is working good. I'd have no qualms about someone spending that type of lute on him. It's been proven what crossing these two horses does.. very very good things (rags to riches)
in that sense, you aren't bidding on a race horse, you are bidding on a stallion.
It has nothing to do with price. Better than Honur is in foal to AP Indy.. let's say it's a colt, and he looks great and is working good. I'd have no qualms about someone spending that type of lute on him. It's been proven what crossing these two horses does.. very very good things (rags to riches)
in that sense, you aren't bidding on a race horse, you are bidding on a stallion.
bdw0617 wrote:.... but what I am saying is there is pretty darn good evidence, in the form of horses that can't beat a USPS truck in a sprint, that crossing SS and storm cat don't work.....
I don't know about that.. I come up with 17 graded SW's with Storm Cat and Seattle Slew. Raging Fever and Bluegrass Cat top that list.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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bdw0617
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I'm looking directly at weekend surprise situation.. you also have to take the dam's sire line into account.
for whatever the reason may be, the two combinations just don't produce runners
I told you, it's not slight against storm cat.. very good sire. Just not with weekend surprise. So to pay 8 mil for what is basically her grandson is beyond me
for whatever the reason may be, the two combinations just don't produce runners
I told you, it's not slight against storm cat.. very good sire. Just not with weekend surprise. So to pay 8 mil for what is basically her grandson is beyond me
In the particular case of Weekend Surprise, she had a very good one in Summer Squall. He was by Storm Bird. There would, therefore, be an indication that she might throw one with Storm Cat. Some people claim that a cross has to be tried at least three times to be proven.
Regarding breeding Welcome Surprise to Storm Cat, it does NOT prove that Storm Cat/Seattle Slew is ineffective.. rather it points to 3x3 Secretariat that might be failing with this mare. Breeding her to AP Indy, as you suggested earlier, would not be a recommended cross either. Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20 in breeding, and it is MUCH easier to criticize and point at failure than it is to accurately plan success.
Regarding breeding Welcome Surprise to Storm Cat, it does NOT prove that Storm Cat/Seattle Slew is ineffective.. rather it points to 3x3 Secretariat that might be failing with this mare. Breeding her to AP Indy, as you suggested earlier, would not be a recommended cross either. Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20 in breeding, and it is MUCH easier to criticize and point at failure than it is to accurately plan success.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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bdw0617
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madelyn wrote:In the particular case of Weekend Surprise, she had a very good one in Summer Squall. He was by Storm Bird. There would, therefore, be an indication that she might throw one with Storm Cat. Some people claim that a cross has to be tried at least three times to be proven.
Regarding breeding Welcome Surprise to Storm Cat, it does NOT prove that Storm Cat/Seattle Slew is ineffective.. rather it points to 3x3 Secretariat that might be failing with this mare. Breeding her to AP Indy, as you suggested earlier, would not be a recommended cross either. Hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20 in breeding, and it is MUCH easier to criticize and point at failure than it is to accurately plan success.
Okay.. can we at least agree that you would have to be an idiot to pay 8 million dollars under the above circumstances for Mr Sekiguchi, espically given his full sister's record, which is none?
halo, that was my point. She has NOTHING to do with Seattle Slew.
Furthermore, bdw0617, Mr. Sekiguchi was her FIRST FOAL. There was nothing proven or unproven. Summer Squall was a pretty good offspring of her dam x Storm Bird. You can't discount the play of Seeking the Gold against Storm Cat since we are talking about about WELCOME Surprise. According to MY APR, Weekend Surprise was bred to Storm Cat twice.
Oftentimes, with a mare like this, that price on that first foal who is so well bred is based on hopes and dreams, rather than fact and proof. Hopes and dreams tend to soar much higher.
Furthermore, bdw0617, Mr. Sekiguchi was her FIRST FOAL. There was nothing proven or unproven. Summer Squall was a pretty good offspring of her dam x Storm Bird. You can't discount the play of Seeking the Gold against Storm Cat since we are talking about about WELCOME Surprise. According to MY APR, Weekend Surprise was bred to Storm Cat twice.
Oftentimes, with a mare like this, that price on that first foal who is so well bred is based on hopes and dreams, rather than fact and proof. Hopes and dreams tend to soar much higher.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
First off, BDW, Honor Grades was by Danzig, not Storm Bird.
Weekend Surprise's best foals were A.P. Indy (by Seattle Slew) and Summer Squall (by Storm Bird). She was only bred to Storm Cat twice that I can see.. and produced the gnits Tiger Ridge and Norway.
I think what BDW is going for -- and I agree with -- is that if a female family shows it doesn't tolerate a certain sireline, why do people continue to breed to it?
Weekend Surprise didn't take to Storm Cat as well as she did to Seattle Slew. Weekend in Seattle goose egged to Hennessy. Welcome Surprise gives us Mr. Sekiguichi, a yet to be raced 2yo and an unnamed yearling. The two other daughters haven't been bred/haven't been bred to SC. The results as they stand are not encouraging. I wouldn't say the female family won't hit to Storm Cat, but I wouldn't be inclined to keep trying either.
If there were another viable Seattle Slew option and it was my call to make, yes, Welcome Surprise would be camped out there. Not Indy -- but that means the only other options are horses like Vindication (who is overpriced IMO), Slew City Slew (underrated and underappreciated) or Doneraile Court. None of them are the level of Storm Cat, but then I don't think Welcome Surprise rates a $500k stallion.
Weekend Surprise's best foals were A.P. Indy (by Seattle Slew) and Summer Squall (by Storm Bird). She was only bred to Storm Cat twice that I can see.. and produced the gnits Tiger Ridge and Norway.
I think what BDW is going for -- and I agree with -- is that if a female family shows it doesn't tolerate a certain sireline, why do people continue to breed to it?
Weekend Surprise didn't take to Storm Cat as well as she did to Seattle Slew. Weekend in Seattle goose egged to Hennessy. Welcome Surprise gives us Mr. Sekiguichi, a yet to be raced 2yo and an unnamed yearling. The two other daughters haven't been bred/haven't been bred to SC. The results as they stand are not encouraging. I wouldn't say the female family won't hit to Storm Cat, but I wouldn't be inclined to keep trying either.
If there were another viable Seattle Slew option and it was my call to make, yes, Welcome Surprise would be camped out there. Not Indy -- but that means the only other options are horses like Vindication (who is overpriced IMO), Slew City Slew (underrated and underappreciated) or Doneraile Court. None of them are the level of Storm Cat, but then I don't think Welcome Surprise rates a $500k stallion.