Thoughts on this mare's female family

[Avila Acres]

What are your thoughts on the strength of this filly's female family. She has a full sister who could be bred to my stallion. There's no black-type in the first 2 gens but then the 4th dam (Stage Queen) is quite the producer- maybe a fluke? Thanks!

http://www.pedigreequery.com/tradewater+lilly

[tinners way]

I would lean towards a Turn To or Bold Ruler line stallion.

[madelyn]

Her full sister has just turned two, on January 1st, and in my opinion has absolutely no business visiting a breeding shed in 2008.

[tinners way]

Good catch Madelyn, babies should not have babies, and if at all possible she should have the opportunity to prove herself as an athlete. As you say yourself, there is not much production??

[Avila Acres]

Her full sister has just turned two, on January 1st, and in my opinion has absolutely no business visiting a breeding shed in 2008.

Just to clarify, we would race this two year old when she turns three and then once retired, we would breed her to my stallion. I'm trying to gather her value as a future broodmare based on her family in addition to juding whether she is capable of running (which I think she is). No way would I breed a filly who is only two.

[madelyn]

It would be what this filly does on the track that would make or break her as a broodmare. If she fizzles, her family won't carry her.

[kimberley mine]

I honestly think you could do a lot better than this filly for breeding stock.

The second dam, Late Night Flight, was unraced and had one winner out of 5 foals. This is a pretty heavy break from the rest of her siblings, which by and large had a high percent starters from runners and got some decent horses. Her first dam, First Flight Out, is by an absolute disaster of a sire in Gentlemen and didn't make it to the races. Gentlemen is a big black hole in this pedigree.

Going back, there is quite a lot of good production, but this filly is out of a branch that is dying. I can't help but wonder if there is some sort of soundness problem given how few of Late Night Flite's foals raced compared with how well her sisters produced.

Now as for her daddy, well, he started out in Kentucky, got exiled to New Mexico, and is clocking in a dismal $28k average/$17k median earnings from the crops sired in Kentucky. Without his top earner his average earnings drops to $22k. His average earnings per start (without the top runner) is about $1700...placing his runners in the $10-15k purse range. The close average and median earnings suggest that they are performing very consistently in that price range. Not good.

Round it all up...female family with a poor production record, possibility of soundness issues, and stallion who isn't cutting it...I think you'd do better taking your money elsewhere.

[Joltman]

While I concur with Kimberley Mine's analysis, it also depends upon what this individual looks like - balance, conformation as well. But there are just too many question marks and catching lightning in the bottle is as dangerous as it is rare.

jm