Big Brown could be a Big Bust as a stallion

[Intrinsic Worth]

If BB was such a hot commodity, they wouldn't be waiting until after the Preakness to make a stud deal.

[majxmom]

He could be a flop or he could be a phenom..
I mean they said the exact same thing about Seattle Slew.

More than one parallel to Seattle Slew here, I think. IMHO, Seattle Slew won his Triple Crown against fields of mostly allowance-class horses. That doesn't diminish his tremendous stud career. I think Big Brown is in a similar situation right now, facing a crop of horses that is undistinguished. When he goes to stud, he might reproduce himself or not. It seems lately there have been as many high-class failures as successes. But I still think he will go to stud for no less than $40 million, because the big boys take big chances. I would say $50 million, but it is obvious we are entering one of those down cycles in the breeding business --everyone I know that owns a mare wants to sell right now.

[bdw0617]

calling her the best broodmare of all time is a slap in the face to mares like Canterbury pilgram, La T, mutaz mahal and others who had a resound effect on horse racing as we know it.

She was good, no doubt. anyone would kill to own her. but b est ever? um..no

[diomed]

He could be a flop or he could be a phenom..
I mean they said the exact same thing about Seattle Slew.

More than one parallel to Seattle Slew here, I think. IMHO, Seattle Slew won his Triple Crown against fields of mostly allowance-class horses. That doesn't diminish his tremendous stud career. I think Big Brown is in a similar situation right now, facing a crop of horses that is undistinguished. When he goes to stud, he might reproduced himself or not. It seems lately there have been as many high-class failures as successes. But I still think he will go to stud for no less than $40 million, because the big boys take big chances. I would say $50 million, but it is obvious we are entering one of those down cycles in the breeding business --everyone I know that owns a mare wants to sell right now.

Very true about Slew and his 3yo campaign. It wasn't until he was 4 that he got the admiration and respect that became legendary.
I seem to recall that Slew was syndicated for 12 mill. but I cannot recall when that was. 3yo or 4yo season? I am thinking 3 but cannot be sure.
Regardless, at the time, that was considered a lot of money.

[majxmom]

Thank you, diomed. I certainly meant only his three year old campaign. As a four year old, he ran against Affirmed and Exceller!

[Keith]

My Charmer was only bred to Bold Reasoning one time which may have been the secret ingredient. Breeding to the best is not necessarily the key to getting your best foal. Look at Cee's Song whose best runners are by Cee's Tizzy. Look at Beautiful Bid whose best runners are by Maudlin and she did nothing when crossed with Seattle Slew and A.P. Indy. Gather The Clan's best runners are by Intidab and Dayjur. Her foals by Relaunch, Unbridled, Halo, Seattle Slew, Deputy Minister, and A.P. Indy did not do much on the track. Greater Good and Gather the Day are two of her better runners. Some mares have to have certain crosses while others like Better Than Honour seem to throw very good runners by three different stallions. Maggy Hawk, the dam of Afleet Alex, has done very well crossed on Northern Afleet. Halo crossed on Ballade has been an awesome cross. Danehill and Hasili has been a great cross. My Charmer has had a very lasting influence through Seattle Slew so whose to say she is not one of the best mares of all time. My Charmer crossed on Northern Dancer lines was not her best cross eventhough it produced a classic winner and someone overpaying for Seattle Dancer. Seattle Slew's sire Bold Reasoning only stood two seasons so he never was able to be bred back to My Charmer. Crossing back to the same stallion does not necessarily mean she would have ever produced a horse the caliber of Seattle Slew but we will never know. Boundary has had chances to prove himself as a stallion where Bold reasoning only stood two seasons. Just a thought.

Keith

[Sam]

Very true about Slew and his 3yo campaign. It wasn't until he was 4 that he got the admiration and respect that became legendary.

Something Brown will never truly get if they retire him after the Belmont. I can't think of a more undeserving addition to the list of Triple Crown winners.

[springboro]

Sam, you really don't like Big Brown... but tell us WHY? I havent' been able to figure out why you would geld him, and don't give him any respect. DO TELL?

[Barbaro06]

I'm not big on Big Brown either. He hasn't been challenged at all in any of his races. This crop of 3 year-olds is not like last year's where you wound up with a few stand-outs, not just one. Things might have been different if War Pass stayed sound...it wouldn't be the same old replay of races.

If Big Brown is so awesome, his owners wouldn't be stating that he's done after this season. IEAH is run by guys who worked Wall Street. They call themselves a "hedge fund." The way I translate that is that they are in it for the money, not the sport. The quick return on investment...which translates into "here today, gone tomorrow." We bemoan the lack of heroes because they are retired so early and here we have a horse who probably won't run past the Belmont (can't risk a $50mil investment) which will also mean the horse will have started six times in his entire career. Basically we will have seen Big Brown race for approximately ten minutes...less than the usual fifteen minutes of fame.

I'm not buying into the hype. I'll be bold enough to even say when Big Brown goes to stud he will last a couple of seasons in the states and then when the excitement wears off, he will be either making a trip overseas or become a regional stallion.

[Sam]

Sam, you really don't like Big Brown... but tell us WHY? I havent' been able to figure out why you would geld him, and don't give him any respect. DO TELL?

It's more the illogical impulses he inspires than the horse himself. He's just a horse. I don't like or dislike him. What I dislike is how horses like this encourage people to lose their minds. It's about perspective. If he were 4-for-15, would he really have just been sold for $50m+? I doubt it, though it would greatly depend on those 4 races.

I'm not denying the horse is the best of his generation (right now) but given what the rest of his generation has shown to date, that's not saying much. So to send him to stud before "we've seen the best of him" does him and the sport a disservice.

Right now people are blown away by him. 5-10 years from now, when the perspective of history has taken hold, he's going to compare unfavourably to all the TC winners before him (assuming, of course, he wins in NY) if he doesn't race past June 7th. You don't become a legend because of what you MIGHT have done, but what you did actually accomplish.

And if he loses, what then? Is he still this mega-beast with an unlucky race? If he loses in NY, then he's no better than Smarty Jones -- another horse that people went absolutely crazy about, moreso than Brown -- and now seems to have faded from the collective conscious. He's certainly not spoken of with the revere he had before the Belmont and after the Belmont, there were people who were adamant that he wasn't even the best 3yo of that year.

Racing ability does not often translate to success in the breeding shed and there's nothing in this horse's pedigree that makes me believe he's worth breeding to (right now) and certainly not at the astronomical stud fee they are sure to set. If you only saw his pedigree with no name or record attached, NO ONE would be rushing to breed to him. It's the pedigree of a $2,500 stallion in New Mexico, not a $150k stallion in Kentucky.

Maybe he'll be the next Seattle Slew. I doubt it, but if he is, I'll have no problem admitting I was wrong. I don't like the precedent his retirement after the Belmont will set. This is what disenchants fans. They barely start to get attached to a horse and it's rushed off to the farm never to be heard from again.

[xfactor fan]

I'm seeing a huge polarization on views of Big Brown. What's up with that?

Sure Dutrow can be a bit of an fool, but he's a straight addict, who's smart enough to limit his environment and keep from getting tempted by too many choices. Big Brown looks healthy happy, and seems to be a sweet horse. The clip of the little girl petting Big Brown's nose was priceless. And no matter what you say about Dutrow, he's a good enough horseman that he wouldn't have let a kid anywhere near the horse if he was mean.

Corporate ownership may not be popular, but it very well may be the way of the future, spreading ownership and risk among lots of owners. On a small scale this is what Team Funnycide did, and is the same model that Dogwood stable uses. Personally I'd be overjoyed if they would set up a retirement fund for all their horses, plus a retraining program for horses that don't make it as racehorses.

As for Big Brown being a bust as a stallion, it could happen, there could be fertility problems or behavior (War Emblem) type problems. But after looking into the science behind his breeding, this horse may hand on a very uniform set of genes, and make a very good stallion.

Sam, I too would like to know what you are seeing to recommend gelding.

[Sam]

Sam, I too would like to know what you are seeing to recommend gelding.

You know, if y'all aren't going to bother to read what I post, stop asking me questions.

THERE IS NOTHING IN HIS PEDIGREE THAT MAKES ME THINK HE SHOULD BE A STALLION. IF HE WERE 4 FOR 15 HE WOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN GELDED.

How many more times do I have to say that before it sinks in?

[xfactor fan]

So you are just looking at the horse on paper, and not taking into consideration his race record? Or what he looks like?

[Sam]

So you are just looking at the horse on paper, and not taking into consideration his race record? Or what he looks like?

I would've cut him before he ever started and I don't really give a damn what he looks like. Without a name or record attached, NO ONE would be rushing to breed to that pedigree and you know it.

One of the best breeders of the last 100 years once said "If I'd cut every colt I'd ever owned, I'd've only been wrong once."

Far as I'm concerned, there's a whole lot of decent stallions out there who'd make even better geldings.

[bayrabicano]

"Maybe it's a blessing he's gelded, he can win the Triple Crown and stay around and keep racing. He may not have turned out to be the horse he is if he hadn't been gelded. It could be the boost racing needs."

- Steve Cauthen
(about Funny Cide and now he's a pony horse)

I expect that BB will have a better lot in life than that. And, a good looking, nice, fast, stud is a wonderful thing. It will be interesting to see if he makes better babies than the well-bred studs (obviously some of those have bombed).