Kentucky Downs

[Bill from WA]

Hi

Has anyone been following the races at Kentucky Downs (which ended today)? I love the European like configuration and the all grass format. The course isn't the typical US oval, but is shaped more like an ice cream cone, with undulations, up hill and down hill, and a long demanding stretch run. Wish it lasted more than a week. The final race today was a perfect spot to use my Conduit Mare Profiles. One and one half miles, and a field of 10 (one scratch made it 9). The profile gave me the winner at 7-1 and hit the trifecta. A nice thing about the meet is most races had full fields of 12 horses, giving the bettor lots of options. Can't wait until next year.

Bill

[ZiaLand]

Bill, great going on your picks. So I'm curious. Is your Conduit mare research more prone to select turf horses, or is it just that this is an unusual track so you could indentify root mares with the propensity for this type of surface?

Can't wait for that book to come out.

Laurie

[Bill from WA]

It pinpoints aptitudes. If a horse has enough speed points to stay close, and has substantial stamina points to hang around, I go with it. The winner of this particular race, Mythique, had a profile of 7-6-2-5-8, a speed to stamina ratio of 13/13 and an index of 0.96. He had over twice as many Professional points as his nearest competitor. He laid mid pack, came through on the inside and prevailed in a good stretch drive.

Bill

[madelyn]

hi Bill
I love KY Downs, just is SO FAR from anything, I didn't get down there this past week. It is such a laid back track and has such a European feel to the track itself. I too wish they had a much longer meet... I don't know why it is just a week.

Congrats on your pick--hope you bet it!

[Roguelet]

Hey, Bill... if you have time you might try to predict the outcome of the Indiana Derby. There were some excellent horses nominated... final entries should be posted ANY MINUTE! I keep going to check, but not yet... I'll post them when they're official; maybe you can take a stab at a trifecta!

[Bill from WA]

Hi Roguelet

The Conduit Profile is more for determining, longer races 1.25 miles and up, based on stamina influences, or early two-year-old races to pinpoint early speed, and for horses routing for the first time, to determine distance capabilities. It doesn't really come into play for middle distance races where the entrants are already established at the distance. It is more of a spot play tool than a general handicapping method. However, there are many races throughout the year where it can be applied, just not in a race such as the Indiana Derby (unless there is an entrant trying two turns for the first time, to see if they might do well). The Kentucky Derby, and The Belmont, well, that's another story. Can't wait to try it next spring.

Bill

[Roguelet]

Aaahhh... I see, says the blind man...

Well, just for giggles you might give us your predictions for the Derby anyway, I just posted the entries on a fresh thread. I'll be anxiously awaiting your evaluations for the first Saturday in May!

[Denise]

Here's a hypothetical aptitude exercise for you if you have time: foals by Unbridled Jet (Unbridled-Easy Summer, by Easy Goer) out of Cozzy Rhythm (Cozzene-Grand Splash, by Bucksplasher.)
We have both a colt and filly from this breeding. The colt is on the smaller size (first foal from the mare) though a nice scopey type, while his weanling sister is much leggier and taller. Our assumption would be that with Unbridled and Easy Goer up so close, they'd likely be routers and late bloomers. But while Cozzene's grass influence is obvious, their dam never won on the turf. What's your assessment based on the conduit profiles?

[Bill from WA]

Hi

A really well balanced pedigree form a conduit mare profile view.
8-4-3-4-7 (12/11) Index = 1.10.
Should be versatile types with the ability to go a route of ground. They may come along fast enough to run as two-year-olds, but I would wait until late in the year.
A guess as to the running style would be close to the pace with a closing kick. Should like the lawn. A caveat...this observation is only based on the conduit mare profile. You should always look at, and evaluate, each horses temperament and physicality in addition to the pedigree influences.

Bill

[Bettina]

Hallo,
There was even a Germanbred Winner of one at the races at Kentucky Downs. Sabiango (Acatenango-Spirit of Eagles by Beau's Eagle) a
5 year old colt. He is the HB of Silvano (by Lomitas)
According the racing paper "Sportwelt", he won the Kentucky Cup Turf Handicap (distance 2400 meters ~ 1 1/2 miles).

Regards, Bettina

[Denise]

We will be training these babies on the grass and presumed that they wouldn't start until fall of their 2yo. years at best, unless something different is revealed early on. But your profiling is fascinating! As I said, I'll take a signed copy of the book...

[Rick]

Bill, If I get your book, will I be able to figure out the conduit mare profiles for my horses.

Rick

[Bill from WA]

Hi Rick

Yes. The work is designed to be used as a workbook. It has some history, a description of how the idea took form and what criteria was used to develop the idea, plus a tutorial on how to create the profiles, complete with pedigree examples, aptitudinal lists and databases. I am planning another book completely dedicated to the use of the profiles for the racetrack bettor. Another is in the works which will profile 125 Conduit mares. The aptitudinal lists are not static, and may change slightly over the course of time, so updates and additions will be available annually. My list of qualifying races has grown to over 750 world wide. A constant work in progress.

Bill

[madelyn]

Bill, the book you are talking about is coming out this month?

[Bill from WA]

It will be out within the next couple of weeks. The original release date of 10/10 has been pushed back about 1 week due to some last minute updates.

Bill