Nervous?

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn

Fireslam
Allowance Winner
Posts: 497
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:05 pm
Location: Zambezi

Nervous?

Postby Fireslam » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:19 pm

Do you suppose stallion managers are getting nervous? Im thinking the phones are awfully quiet....

http://www.bloodhorse.com/NOW/News/Bree ... 48532.aspx

HR LLC
Starters Handicap
Posts: 508
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:54 am
Location: Bowie, MD
Contact:

Postby HR LLC » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:40 pm

Just like any other industry, you have to review your prices to get goods sold. I know some places that are offering 40 to 60% off Rolex, Breitling and other luxury brand watches. Those reduced prices may get a few more people to come into the store but people are not purchasing luxury items like they did in the past.

Stud fees are a luxury and a lot of the pricing does not reflect the real economic conditions in the USA or the horse industry right now. It's really bad and its only going to get worse in 2009.
Last edited by HR LLC on Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

LB
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2388
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2007 6:57 am
Location: Kentucky

Postby LB » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:41 pm

Some are understandably nervous; others seem to be inexplicably confident.

I think there will be many stallions next year whose books are smaller than their handlers would like.

Fireslam
Allowance Winner
Posts: 497
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:05 pm
Location: Zambezi

Postby Fireslam » Mon Dec 22, 2008 4:50 pm

Im surprised at the attitude of most stallion managers in Florida. Some are offering a little discount, usually with multiple mares booked, but in general I think they are all way off on what the market will bear. Very few mares are booked so far. I think things will change drastically the further along we get into breeding season.

Lisann
Allowance Winner
Posts: 491
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2007 4:23 am
Location: Missouri

Postby Lisann » Mon Dec 22, 2008 6:47 pm

If fewer mares are bred, leading to the obvious smaller foal crop, perhaps there will be incentives for more horses to continue racing beyond their 3 or 4 year old year.

Consider the fan base of Evening Attire. That's the sort of thing that is GOOD for racing.

Sorry for the slightly off-topic post, but I think most of the higher stud fees are ridiculous. The exponential growth of stud fees at the upper end just doesn't exist in other parts of the horse world. I'm fairly familiar with Arabian, warmblood, and even QH stud fees. Seems to me a fairly harsh market correction is coming for most of the $5000+ stud fees.

LB
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2388
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2007 6:57 am
Location: Kentucky

Postby LB » Mon Dec 22, 2008 9:04 pm

Fireslam wrote:Im surprised at the attitude of most stallion managers in Florida. Some are offering a little discount, usually with multiple mares booked, but in general I think they are all way off on what the market will bear. Very few mares are booked so far. I think things will change drastically the further along we get into breeding season.


There doesn't seem to be a lot of discounting going on in Kentucky either, at least not in our experience. Most of the prices got cut to some extent, but then they're holding firm. I think that by spring, breeders with an open mare will be looking at plenty of choices.

Hotwalker
Maiden Special Weight
Posts: 197
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2008 8:37 pm
Location: Boston, MA

Postby Hotwalker » Mon Dec 22, 2008 9:34 pm

Afleet Alex's fee will go right back up after his first crop runs this year (or down, but I think he'll be good).

As mentioned in this string, an unintended benefit of lower sale prices are good horses staying in training an extra year or two instead of quickly going to stud. Unfortunately this wasn't the greatest 3 year old class.

It's good that the Breeder's Cup reinstated the $5 million dollars they supplement to 100 stake races. Otherwise that would have really discouraged longterm investment (mare breeding), further driving down fees.

AscotStud
Grade III Winner
Posts: 1036
Joined: Fri Dec 28, 2007 2:12 am
Location: Ontario
Contact:

Postby AscotStud » Tue Dec 23, 2008 1:34 am

Maybe the stallion managers don't beleive the scare tactics the media is putting out there. If their clients aren't CEO's of the big 3 why worry. As someone posted this is a luxury business, people will always be involved. 95% of the people I know would not have a clue their was a recession if it wasn't the first thing on the news every evening at 6. Because in N.A. fear sells.
We have by far more booked this year at this point than we did last year.
too weird to live...too rare to die
www.ascotstudfarm.com

Fireslam
Allowance Winner
Posts: 497
Joined: Tue Mar 11, 2008 3:05 pm
Location: Zambezi

Postby Fireslam » Tue Dec 23, 2008 5:03 am

It has nothing to do with scare tactics, it has to do with sales results. Nearly every sale was down approx. 45%, most horses sold at a loss. Why in the world would everyone rush to breed their mares this year with a near guarantee that the foal will sell at a loss, if it even sells at all? I have 4 mares, and have no plans to breed, unless Im offered a deal I cant refuse. So far I havent been offered that deal. I still think very few stallion managers understand how deep the cuts need to be in stud fees. They aren't there yet.

LB
Eclipse Champion
Posts: 2388
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2007 6:57 am
Location: Kentucky

Postby LB » Tue Dec 23, 2008 7:27 am

AscotStud wrote:Maybe the stallion managers don't beleive the scare tactics the media is putting out there. If their clients aren't CEO's of the big 3 why worry. As someone posted this is a luxury business, people will always be involved. 95% of the people I know would not have a clue their was a recession if it wasn't the first thing on the news every evening at 6...


The TB industry is only a luxury business at the very top end. You must hang out with a very different crowd than I do. 95% of the people I know are licking their wounds and counting their losses. Small breeders, small farm owners, hay growers, van drivers...a lot of people are scrambling right now and a reasonably priced stud fee can make all the difference between a foal that's profitable and one that isn't.

DDT
Breeder's Cup Winner
Posts: 2021
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Location: New Jersey

Postby DDT » Tue Dec 23, 2008 8:04 am

AscotStud

According to the Jockey Club, Tejano Run covered 18 mares in Canada and Aljabr covered 5 in Kentucky this year, so with Impeachment gone it would not take many bookings to be ahead of last year, would it?

DDT

st. louis kid
Maiden Special Weight
Posts: 192
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:56 pm

Postby st. louis kid » Tue Dec 23, 2008 9:59 am

I have kind of had the feeling that many of the stud farms have been in a bit of a state of denial, this is not convincing me otherwise.
What's a little fear, like when people are laid off from jobs they have had for 25 years and can't find another one. Car dealerships shutting down, no new construction, home sales in the tank. My restaurants in Florida and Arizona did 30% of the busines they did 2 years ago in Nov.
Was in St. Armands Circle in Sarasota last week, it was a ghost town, in December! Oceanfront rooms going for $39.00 bucks a night.
Wait till Keen. Jan. and Fasig-Tipton Feb at Calder, I think prices will be down 50% from last year.
Stud farm owners need to recognize that their assets have declined 50% in value from last year and adjust their prices accordingly.

User avatar
Roguelet
Moderator
Posts: 2727
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 10:14 am
Location: Indiana
Contact:

Postby Roguelet » Tue Dec 23, 2008 10:11 am

Yeah, I'm nervous. Though I'm in Indiana, and at least our purses are rising and believe it or not, the value of Indiana bred yearlings has actually increased recently. Still... nervous.

We advertise one price due when a foal stands and nurses and a discount if paid Sept. 1st. We will discount even more as a general rule the earlier a fee is paid. As always, we're advertising special consideration for approved mares, and this year we're also planning to offer additional discounts for Indiana mares. We're also willing to explore payment plans and creative terms on foal sharing... basically, we're willing to talk to mare owners and come up with something that will work for each one as an individual. If someone approaches us with a mare that fits well to one of the stallions here, we will be creative and flexible, and do everything in our power to make it happen.
**************************************
Image
"Don't be a boorish buffoon" -Hokies Respect 'Jerk Alert'

st. louis kid
Maiden Special Weight
Posts: 192
Joined: Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:56 pm

Postby st. louis kid » Tue Dec 23, 2008 10:25 am

Someone told me the purses at Hoosier next year are going to be great. What are the rules for Ind. breds, how long to be there to foal, breed to Ind. sire, etc. ?

User avatar
madelyn
Moderator
Posts: 10067
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:53 pm
Location: Louisville, KY

Postby madelyn » Tue Dec 23, 2008 10:34 am

The mare either has to be in the state of Indiana by Nov 1 of the year bred, or be bred back to an Indiana-registered stallion and remain at least 30 days after foaling for the foal she is CARRYING to be an Indiana bred. There are also restricted races for Indiana sired.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....