I am certainly not surprised by the ongoing bloodbath at Keeneland but it is real sobering when you watch these yearlings go for less than the sales prep and commissions it cost to get them there... and did someone mention stud fees? We are in the second half of the Keeneland Sale and I think there has been around a 50% decline in sales and I think that is about right across the market. Although the stud farms adjusted their fees after Keeneland November, the adjustments were nowhere near 50% and I think they need to readjust the fees again.
My mare has been under lights since December 1st, has already come in heat, been cultured, and has the "green light" for breeding but she does not have a mate selected yet. The ball is in my court. I am waiting....
Further Adjustments Needed For 2009 Stud Fees
Moderators: Roguelet, WaveMaster, madelyn
After Keeneland is over maybe you should send offer sheets for your mare to the stallion managers of the stallions you are interested. If they want your business let them know what you are willing to pay. You can always lose your money just going down to the track and betting on the horses you don't have to commit to 2 or 3 years of losses by breeding your mare.
Dave C wrote:After Keeneland is over maybe you should send offer sheets for your mare to the stallion managers of the stallions you are interested. If they want your business let them know what you are willing to pay. You can always lose your money just going down to the track and betting on the horses you don't have to commit to 2 or 3 years of losses by breeding your mare.
well said .....and thats the stance i'm taking this year...good deal in KY....i go.....not so good deal....i stay in NY.....no good deal in NY....i skip breeding this year.......THE WORLD WONT END.........half a loaf of bread is better than none.
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
Just because prices now are low does not mean people shouldn't be breeding. Even more so if you sell at yearling sales. 2 years from now when the market should be back up again (and your foal concieved this year, would have been going to the sale) a lot of people will probably wish they didn't panic and leave their mares open.
I agree with getting the best deal possible and taking advantage of the "economy", but to not breed doesn't make sense to me.
I agree with getting the best deal possible and taking advantage of the "economy", but to not breed doesn't make sense to me.
too weird to live...too rare to die
www.ascotstudfarm.com
www.ascotstudfarm.com
AscotStud wrote:Just because prices now are low does not mean people shouldn't be breeding. Even more so if you sell at yearling sales. 2 years from now when the market should be back up again (and your foal concieved this year, would have been going to the sale) a lot of people will probably wish they didn't panic and leave their mares open.
I agree with getting the best deal possible and taking advantage of the "economy", but to not breed doesn't make sense to me.
I agree, not breeding shoots the breeder in the foot. Find the best deal you can, but you have no options without "the product."
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skywatcher
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st. louis kid
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From a business plan standpoint, show me how one could possibly make a decision to breed a mare to a solid sire unless you own the stud or a breeding right to him.
How many yearlings were profitable so far in the Jan. sale(criteria I use is 2 times the stud fee plus 5,000 for costs)?
If and only if your mare is considered in the top 10% of those in production can you even make an argument that it could be profitable in 2 years.
If you are breeding to race, still makes no sense at this point, you could have bought numerous well bred and nice conformed yearlings for 25% of the stud fee this week.
We are completely changing our business plan, no more breeding. We will buy well bred in foal mares to proven sires. If a colt we sell, if filly we race. Breed back mare to first year sire, and sell in foal. Repeat the process of buying new in foal mares.
Other option is to buy well bred filly weanlings and yearlings to race for less than the stud fee(easy to find now), after race career, breed and sell in foal. Any thoughts out there?
How many yearlings were profitable so far in the Jan. sale(criteria I use is 2 times the stud fee plus 5,000 for costs)?
If and only if your mare is considered in the top 10% of those in production can you even make an argument that it could be profitable in 2 years.
If you are breeding to race, still makes no sense at this point, you could have bought numerous well bred and nice conformed yearlings for 25% of the stud fee this week.
We are completely changing our business plan, no more breeding. We will buy well bred in foal mares to proven sires. If a colt we sell, if filly we race. Breed back mare to first year sire, and sell in foal. Repeat the process of buying new in foal mares.
Other option is to buy well bred filly weanlings and yearlings to race for less than the stud fee(easy to find now), after race career, breed and sell in foal. Any thoughts out there?
AscotStud wrote:Just because prices now are low does not mean people shouldn't be breeding. Even more so if you sell at yearling sales. 2 years from now when the market should be back up again (and your foal concieved this year, would have been going to the sale) a lot of people will probably wish they didn't panic and leave their mares open.
I agree with getting the best deal possible and taking advantage of the "economy", but to not breed doesn't make sense to me.
You're very optimistic about the market recovering. The market of the past decade is not normal, it was exceptionally strong: both the horse market and the general economy. If in 1930 you had made that assumption that the economy would recover back to the heydey of the roaring 20's, you would have only had to wait 70 years for it to happen. I'm not trying to be negative, just keeping an eye to the big picture and I'm not sure what exactly 'normal' is for the economy or the horse market. Everyone has to look at their own situation and determine how much of a loss they can carry for how long. I'll be breeding 4 mares this year but I'll be looking much harder to breed a quality racehorse than a fashionable sales horse because I don't believe there is profit to be had on the sales side.
The biggest problem is people are over breeding mares that should not be bred at all, and expecting to get something for the foals. Look at how many more yearlings have been offered the past few years at Keeneland. All of the mares may brother and I own are either stakes winners, placed or 1/2 to stakes winners, or graded horses. I breed knowing that if I don't get what I want for the foal I don't mind training it myself.
The purses at Woodbine and other restricted markets are not dropping 50%, so at least people in our market know if they buy a quality horse they will have a great chance to get their investment back. Breeders awards alone for a Maiden Allowance win are $6k and around $2k if the horse wins for over $20k. All my brother and I are going to do is keep producing quality race horses out of nice mares.
Our race fillies don't join our broodmare band, unless theyreally deserve it. They get sold as jumpers or riding horses. I have a Salt Lake filly who has made over $60k out of a Stakes winning mare and a Victory Gallop filly that has made over $50k, they will either be sold to South America or be jumpers, but the second we start breeding them is when we get into the problem so many people are in right now.
The purses at Woodbine and other restricted markets are not dropping 50%, so at least people in our market know if they buy a quality horse they will have a great chance to get their investment back. Breeders awards alone for a Maiden Allowance win are $6k and around $2k if the horse wins for over $20k. All my brother and I are going to do is keep producing quality race horses out of nice mares.
Our race fillies don't join our broodmare band, unless theyreally deserve it. They get sold as jumpers or riding horses. I have a Salt Lake filly who has made over $60k out of a Stakes winning mare and a Victory Gallop filly that has made over $50k, they will either be sold to South America or be jumpers, but the second we start breeding them is when we get into the problem so many people are in right now.
AscotStud wrote:Just because prices now are low does not mean people shouldn't be breeding. Even more so if you sell at yearling sales. 2 years from now when the market should be back up again (and your foal concieved this year, would have been going to the sale) a lot of people will probably wish they didn't panic and leave their mares open.
I agree with getting the best deal possible and taking advantage of the "economy", but to not breed doesn't make sense to me.
you make a very valid point.....but think this over... im pretty astute on the economy....the US government is printing money like its going out of style.....as soon as inventorys decline, and manufactuers have to resupply hyper inflation
is going to come roaring in. 
...god i hope im wrong but the writing is on the wall if you know what to look for.....so for me to spend my $$$ now i have to get excellent value.....to each there own.A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
st. louis kid wrote: How many yearlings were profitable so far in the Jan. sale(criteria I use is 2 times the stud fee plus 5,000 for costs)?
Such rules for defining profitability are mathematically suspect if not completely illogical. A yearling by a stud commanding a $150k stud fee that sells for $300k is thus deemed not profitable, despite a 200% return on investment less breeding, raising, selling cost over the course of 18 or less months. Yet a foal selling for $8k by a $1500 dollar stud is thus deemed profitable [($1.5k X 2) + $5k costs]. There's enough economic lunacy without perverse measures of profitability. My meager 2 cents worth.
Such rules for defining profitability are mathematically suspect if not completely illogical. A yearling by a stud commanding a $150k stud fee that sells for $300k is thus deemed not profitable, despite a 200% return on investment less breeding, raising, selling cost over the course of 18 or less months. Yet a foal selling for $8k by a $1500 dollar stud is thus deemed profitable [($1.5k X 2) + $5k costs]. There's enough economic lunacy without perverse measures of profitability. My meager 2 cents worth.
Agreed, those profitablity "formulas" are never accurate. Unless the person was trying to explain to an investor why he lost money...that slid into the other persons pocket.
the US government is printing money like its going out of style.....as soon as inventorys decline, and manufactuers have to resupply hyper inflation is going to come roaring in. ...god i hope im wrong but the writing is on the wall if you know what to look for.....so for me to spend my $$$ now i have to get excellent value.....to each there own
Like I said, purses and breeders awards are staying the same...so why should spending on breeding stop, when the end product is not seeing declines racing a horse now has the same end profit margin as it did 2 or 3 years ago when (sales) prices were beyond studpid. Your country just ended 8 years of being run by a retard, of course the walls are going to come down and it will take a year or two to get back in the "real" world, but to think horse racing and the whole economy will see no rebound is pretty sad. The early 90's and 2000's had their market fluctuations, but things always jumped back. Much like they will now...unless China calls the US to pay up their debt asap.
I will stick to the words of Warren Buffet (Jimmy's dad) and buy low, sell high...and the buyin is low now.
If I am breeding to race and I can purchase a yearling for less than the stud fee AND I like that yearling then I'm not going to breed. Purse values are not a factor in the decision. Eliminating mare care and associated expenses are. That decision is easy.
If I am breeding to sell the decision is tougher. That's when the crystal ball comes into play. I for one subscribe to the subsequent inflation theory.
AS to a Canadian calling our president a retard, it really hurts. When I raced at WO or bought at CTHS I found most of the people that I dealt with to be on the lower end of the intelligence scale. To think that these are the people calling our president a retard makes it hurt quite a bit more.
If I am breeding to sell the decision is tougher. That's when the crystal ball comes into play. I for one subscribe to the subsequent inflation theory.
AS to a Canadian calling our president a retard, it really hurts. When I raced at WO or bought at CTHS I found most of the people that I dealt with to be on the lower end of the intelligence scale. To think that these are the people calling our president a retard makes it hurt quite a bit more.
choltz wrote:st. louis kid wrote: How many yearlings were profitable so far in the Jan. sale(criteria I use is 2 times the stud fee plus 5,000 for costs)?
Such rules for defining profitability are mathematically suspect if not completely illogical. A yearling by a stud commanding a $150k stud fee that sells for $300k is thus deemed not profitable, despite a 200% return on investment less breeding, raising, selling cost over the course of 18 or less months. Yet a foal selling for $8k by a $1500 dollar stud is thus deemed profitable [($1.5k X 2) + $5k costs]. There's enough economic lunacy without perverse measures of profitability. My meager 2 cents worth.
Those profitability equations that are based on multiples of stud fee are also meant to take into account the purchase and upkeep price of the mare. A mare who is bred to a 150K stallion costs many many times more than one who is bred to a $1500 stallion does. Which is why you see the huge variation in the amount needed for profitability. It's not just the stud fee and the expenses on that foal.
Your country just ended 8 years of being run by a retard
ascot stud wrote.......... "Your country just ended 8 years of being run by a retard"
its the idiot congress.......lower public rating than the president.......time will only tell how history rates him.......52 straight months of growth.....whens the last time canada had that........never.
.....presidents job is to safeguard the country ....he's done that.....he is not perfect.....are you?.....im not. 
like i said i want vaule....and breeders awards have not stayed the same in NY..........we might not end up getting the take out that they hold back {20%} of our breeders awards from 08.....they stopped paying for 4th place ....so dont tell me its stayed the same....get the facts straight. as for stud farms in general that dont cut fee's more......who are they kidding, there in denial. wait and see what happens.
its the idiot congress.......lower public rating than the president.......time will only tell how history rates him.......52 straight months of growth.....whens the last time canada had that........never.
.....presidents job is to safeguard the country ....he's done that.....he is not perfect.....are you?.....im not.
like i said i want vaule....and breeders awards have not stayed the same in NY..........we might not end up getting the take out that they hold back {20%} of our breeders awards from 08.....they stopped paying for 4th place ....so dont tell me its stayed the same....get the facts straight. as for stud farms in general that dont cut fee's more......who are they kidding, there in denial. wait and see what happens.
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real