2009 Kentucky Derby

[Bill from WA]

Hi All
It's getting to be that time again to start speculating about which horses are bred to get the Kentucky Derby distance. I took a top 10 list as posted on another website, and checked out their stamina index (as set forth in a post for last year's race).
Listed in order of conduit profile stamina potential: The lower the number, the more percieved stamina.

1) Midshipman (0.63)
2) Old Fashioned (0.70)
3) Hello Broadway (0.80)
4) Capt. Candyman Can (0.89)
5) Imperial Council (0.89)
6) Vineyard Haven (0.90)
7) Square Eddie (0.95)
8) Quality Road (0.97)
9) Break Water Edison (1.25)
10) Terrain (1.26)

The average stamina index for the past 25 Kentucky Derbies is (0.79). Last year's winner, Big Brown, had a stamina index of (0.75)
There is no doubt that the list of contenders will change drastically as time passes.

Here are the conduit mare aptitudinal designations of the winners of the Kentucky Derby since 1972. Only one winner, Winning Colors in 1988, has a conduit classified only as "B" (Sanctuary), but her stamina index was a low 0.79. One winner, Bold Forbes in 1976, had a conduit classified only as "I" (La Venganza), which was offset by a stamina index of 0.76. All the rest had at least a "C" aptitudinal rating.
The stamina index (numbers after the winner's name) for each previous winner followed by their conduit mare, are as follows:

2008: Big Brown (0.75) Simon's Shoes (I/P)
2007: Street Sense (0.53) Face A Main (I/S)
2006: Barbaro (0.49) Fine Feathers (C)
2005: Giacomo (0.87) Don's Birthday (P)
2004: Smarty Jones (0.78) Doxa (B/P)
2003: Funny Cide (0.83) Petit Bleu (S)
2002: War Emblem (1.02) High Flyer (B/C)
2001: Monarchos (0.70) Artless (C)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (0.79) Cherokee Rose II (B/S)
1999: Charismatic (1.00) Court Dress (B/C)
1998: Real Quiet (1.02) Tribonyx (S)
1997: Silver Charm (0.65) Investigation (C)
1996: Grindstone (0.84) Chit Chat (B/P)
1995: Thunder Gulch (0.44) Lady Daisy Cutter (C/P)
1994: Go For Gin (0.80) Doxa (B/P)
1993: Sea Hero (0.49) Doxa (B/P)
1992: Lil E Tee (0.73) Nature (I/S)
1991: Strike The Gold (0.93) Noreen Agnes (B/S)
1990: Unbridled (0.85) Fricassee (I/S)
1989: Sunday Silence (0.71) Baroness La Fleche (S)
1988: Winning Colors (0.79) Sanctuary (B)
1987: Alysheba (0.95) Macaroon (S)
1986: Ferdinand (1.19) Frizette (B/P)
1985: Spend A Buck (1.13) Doxa (B/P)
1984: Swale (0.66) Popinjay (S)
1983: Sunny’s Halo (0.76) Bonnie Star (C)
1982: Gato Del Sol (0.69) Petticoat (S)
1981: Pleasant Colony (0.73) Gitanilla (P)
1980: Genuine Risk (0.92) Samphire (I/C)
1979: Spectacular Bid (0.98) Dazzling (I/S)
1978: Affirmed (0.73) Nature (I/S)
1977: Seattle Slew (0.74) Frizette (B/P)
1976: Bold Forbes (0.76) La Venganza (I)
1975: Foolish Pleasure (0.79) Miranda (B/S)
1974: Cannonade (0.90) Dazzling (I/S)
1973: Secretariat (0.56) Bill And Coo (P)
1972: Riva Ridge (0.79) Reine De Naples (P)



Bill

[Worksoplad]

Bill: Could you please post the stamina indexes for the remainder of the 11 triple crown winners:

1919: Sir Barton
1930: Gallant Fox
1935: Omaha
1937: War Admiral
1941: Whirlaway
1943: Count Fleet
1946: Assault
1948: Citation
---------------------
1973: Secretariat
1977: Seattle Slew
1978: Affirmed

[Bill from WA]

Hi worksoplad

The stamina index is based on data collected via the racing tendencies of the descendants of conduit mares (foaled circa 1900). You can't really develop numbers for horses who were foaled prior to 1960 or so because of limited collected data within the pedigree. If I pushed the conduit mares farther back (50 years or so to 1850) it would introduce thousands upon thousands of additional horses to examine.
Sorry I couldn't be of more help.

Bill

[Worksoplad]

OK thanks. I understand.

[siegy]

Bill: Could you please post the stamina indexes for the remainder of the 11 triple crown winners:

1919: Sir Barton
1930: Gallant Fox
1935: Omaha
1937: War Admiral
1941: Whirlaway
1943: Count Fleet
1946: Assault
1948: Citation
---------------------
1973: Secretariat
1977: Seattle Slew
1978: Affirmed

Hi,
Sir barton impact value..............1.28
gallant fox..................................-0.69
omaha.......................................-0.23
war admiral................................-0.05
Whirlaway..................................4.13
count fleet...................................4.47
assault.......................................0.78
citation........................................21.75
Secretariat..................................1.63
Seattle slew.................................2.41
Affirmed......................................2.69

Regard's Siegy,

[George William Smith]

Good Timing Bill as I just did my Top 10 GSV scores of the Top 30 contenders listed by Haskins today on Equidaily. His Top 12 are:
1. Old Fashioned 72.20
2. Patena 80.83
3. Giant Oak 71.52
4. Square Eddie 73.03
5. Hello Broadway 76.20
6. I Want Revenge 67.92
7. Capt. Candyman Can 61.71
8. Pioneerof the Nile 72.81
9. Friesan Fire 74.93
10. Shafted 62.81
11. Poltergeist 65.96
12. Theregoesjojo 78.97

Of Haskin's Top 30, only 10 have GSV scores [I am not finished updating my GSV scores yet] over 70. Seven of Haskins Top 12 have GSV's above 70 and all 5 of his Top 5 have GSV's greater than 70.

Background: Each year since the GSV has become public, I have publicized the highest GSV horse entered in the Kentucky Derby [afer entries taken and before the race is run]. For 3 straight years now, the horse with the highest GSV score has won [8000/1 shot], so I think it is highly unlikely the highest will win this year. I'm just hoping one of the highest scores will win.

Good luck to all, George







http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker

[Bill from WA]

Hi George

Here are the conduit stamina numbers for the list you posted.

1. Old Fashioned 72.20 (0.70)
2. Patena 80.83 (1.16)
3. Giant Oak 71.52 (1.28)
4. Square Eddie 73.03 (0.95)
5. Hello Broadway 76.20 (0.80)
6. I Want Revenge 67.92 (0.98)
7. Capt. Candyman Can 61.71 (0.89)
8. Pioneerof the Nile 72.81 (0.99)
9. Friesan Fire 74.93 (0.63)
10. Shafted 62.81 (0.96)
11. Poltergeist 65.96 (1.10)
12. Theregoesjojo 78.97 (1.07)

Using a formula that I devised utilizing both the conduit mare stamina Index and the GSV scores, I came up with this in the order of pedigree aptitude (by my calculations) to get the 10 furlong distance. At this point in the game, Friesan Fire is my choice. Of course it's very early, and a lot can happen between now and the first Saturday in May.

1) Friesan Fire (1.19)
2) Old Fashioned (1.03)
3) Hello Broadway (0.95)
4) Square Eddie (0.77)
5) Theregoesjojo (0.74)
6) Capt. Candyman Can (0.69)
7) I Want Revenge (0.69)
8) Pioneer Of The Nile (0.69)
9) Patena (0.69)
10) Shafted (0.65)
11) Poltergeist (0.60)
12) Giant Oak (0.56)

Bill

[George William Smith]

Hi Bill:
Do you mind if I copy and paste the list you just gave to my blog page to let my readers see your conduit numbers and "the results of your formula that I devised utilizing both the conduit mare stamina Index and the GSV scores"

my blog page is found at:
http://gwsmith3.shawwebspace.ca

no problem if you want to keep your list to Pedigree Query. I find it fascinating and will be watching with baited breath the results of the Derby in 2009. All fingers crossed you get excellent results.

best, George

[Bill from WA]

Hi George

Please use the list any way you see fit. This time of year is always filled with anticipation, and I do admire and appreciate your work in trying to decipher the pedigree potential of these runners (which obviously has been quite successful so far). My hope is to further refine my conduit mare examination process by utilizing the GSV scores.

Bill

[el camino]

George and Bill,

Could you guys provide your numbers for Mr. Fantasy, a horse I bred, thats on the triple crown trail. Thank You. I have have my own opinions based on the ped and knowledge of his siblings, wonder what your data says.

[Bill from WA]

Hi el camino

I will have to wait until I see George's updated GSV score for Mr Fantasy before I can come up with a number. The conduit profile predicts a sprinter/miler type with capabilities up to 9 furlongs. However, you have a marvelous mare that has close up relatives in her family that have routed well (she was best routing herself), so Mr Fantasy may well have more stamina than the conduit profile predicts. I'm a big fan of Tin Cup Chalice, and he certainly is a versatile sort. I'm very interested to see George's numbers.

Bill

[George William Smith]

Hi El Camino:
The male half of the pedigree is 75.67 and the female half is 60.56, which gives him a GSV of 68.12. Pretty nice GSV for a colt out of a very young sire.

E Dubai is doing great at stud so far and he is the best sire bred to Mr. Fantasy's dam so far. The dam's family has been upgraded in the last few generations with matings to Stalwart, then Spectacular Bid and finally to E Dubai. This often produces foals that can win at high levels when the pedigree match up works.

He looks to me, off the top of my head to be more running-horse blood than classic contender. Running-horse blood are usually tough, hard-knocking and best up to a distance of a mile and a sixteenth. But I hope for you that he is Classic material.

And thanks Bill, I'll put that posting up on my blog site.

best, George

[Bill from WA]

Hi el camino

Using George's GSV score and the conduit stamina index, I come up with a combined number of 0.53, which indicates a middle distance type. That said, there is a Kentucky Derby winner from this female family (through the conduit mare Audience), in Venetian Way. I hope your guy proves me wrong.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

Listed below are the family racing histories of some of this year’s Kentucky Derby hopefuls, traced through their conduit mares (in brackets follwing the horses name), regarding the winners (via those mares) of what might be considered classic races in various countries.

1) Square Eddie (Popinjay) (S) Shadeed (2000 Guineas), Swale (Kentucky Derby, Belmont), Alphabet Soup (Breeder’s Cup Classic), Provoke (St Leger Stakes), Alaton (Gran Premio Nacional)

2) Patena (Renaissance (B/S) Rockavan (2000 Guineas), Charon (CCA Oaks), Touch Gold (Belmont Stakes), Silver Patriarch (St Leger Stakes)

3) Poltergeist (Solirena) (B) Deputed Testimony (Preakness), Tank’s Prospect (Preakness)

4) Pioneer of the Nile (Solirena) (B) Deputed Testimony (Preakness), Tank’s Prospect (Preakness)

5) Giant Oak (Honora) (I/S) Tap On Wood (2000 Guineas), Skip Away (Breeder’s Cup Classic)

6) Hello Broadway (Balancoire II) (P) Berlo (CCA Oaks), Mom’s Command (CCA Oaks)

7) Mr. Fantasy (Audience) (B/S) Venetian Way (Kentucky Derby), Timber Country (Preakness)

8) Friesan Fire (Sadie) (P) Hyperno (Melbourne Cup)

9) Capt. Candyman Can (Padilla) (C) Birdstone (Belmont Stakes)

10) I Want Revenge (Finta) (B/I) Basko Pinton (Gran Premio Nacional)

11) Old Fashioned (Sanfara (C) Revidere (CCA Oaks)

12) Theregoesjojo (Naughty Jill) (C/P) (None)

13) Midshipman (Olympia) (I/P) (None)

14) Shafted (Saratoga Belle) (C) (None)

The horses listed as “none” have many fine runners descending through their conduit mares, but “none” that I have designated as “Classic” races (14 races worldwide including the American and English Triple Crowns, and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe).

Bill

[el camino]

Thanks for the data guys. I think Mr Fantasy is a top miler as well but he runs very comfortably on the front end and his mechanics are near perfection so I think he can get five miles, if the pace is right. He'll be very tough to beat in the Gotham, not sure beyond that, hard for me to see him gettin 1 1/4 unless no one pressures him and he can set soft fractions. He kind of reminds me of Lion Heart and Hard Spun from the last couple years.