GSV goes down in flames....poof

[George William Smith]

The GSV failed to make it four years in a row in the derby. Though the top two GSV horses were favored by the betting public, they took the money and didn't run, well they ran, slightly faster than one, but not many.

I've posted the 2009 GSV Derby and Oaks package results on my home page...the good and the bad.

http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker

[Bill from WA]

The Modern Conduit Mare stamina index went up in smoke right with you. They did a great job if you selected the individuals with the least stamina potential (according to the numbers). Three out of the first four finishers supposedly coudn't get the distance. Awful results!

Bill

[diomed]

This what happens when you pack 19 horses in a bog.
Toss it.
FLUKE!!

[dray33]

Or maybe after decades of medication abuses and breeding speed to speed, could the horse itself be changing? Could the new "profile" for a Derby horse be changing? Just a thought.

[zinn21]

Bet May foals. If you did you would have hit a 41k trifecta..

[Diane]

George you just need to come up with a method to incorporate the luck and hype factors for the first Sat in May predictions.

[valerie]

Or maybe after decades of medication abuses and breeding speed to speed, could the horse itself be changing? Could the new "profile" for a Derby horse be changing? Just a thought.

I got to admit that this is my way of thinking along with a lot of people I have been talking to.

[karenkarenn]

I dont think it had anything to do with Medication. I think it had ALOT to do with Calvin Borel s riding. There switch to a jockey that does very well at Churchill Downs improved that horse.
Now whos to say that without Calvin that they horse will continue to win.
Nothing personal against Gomez, I didnt bet on him because he has won the derby. Kent and Calvin have done it probably will do it again.
Karen

[dray33]

karenkaren. It was a brilliant ride, but if you saw the end of the race (the birds eye view), he could have swung 20 wide for the stretch run and won by 2 lengths instead of 8. The other horses were at a dead stop and he was simply weaving through slow-moving traffic... albeit brilliantly.

When I say medication abuses of the past three decades, I am speaking about the damage it has caused in skewing the true details of a horses ability. Performance enhancing is just that, but in the breeding shed it matters not what chemicals allowed you to accomplish. I am speaking of breeding fragile horses, speed to speed, generation after generation, with false performance records and distorted perception of class and talent being led into the shed to produce hundreds of offspring, year after year.

I can't help but think all this chemistry, from race day to far worse, has some kind of trickle down affect, after long term exposure. I just do, and I can get my mind off it. I think we have reached the tipping point, and I hope we are focusing on better training, breeding and development for the breed. That's also why I think the GSV and Conduit numbers are getting jostled. It's just a hunch, a feeling.

[karenkarenn]

Dray You r right the GSV are getting warped. But I dont want to make People that have been contributing their entire lives upset over saying that. And its weird to me how MTB could have a 5. Esp since the dam sire was Smart Strike.
Is there anyway to find out what kind of drugs MTB was on?
I saw Lassixs on the DRF.
karen

[jagger]

What honorable men, George and Bill, to step up and concede that their methodology does not always work. I think it was the "Calvin" factor.

[karenkarenn]

Yes
Quite honerable.

[dray33]

I don't think there is any dishonor in statistical change. I don't see "surrender" if the numbers are not working 100% of the time, and I don't lose interest in a horse if he/she loses a race. We are becoming too much a "be right" or "win" at EVERY instance society.

Maybe all that's required is a fresh look at data. The real value to a working system is he ability to adapt.

[Susan09]

Calvin definitely played a h-u-g-e role in MTB winning the Derby. I don't know how accurate the GSV might have been if I Want Revenge and some of the other more competitive horses would have been able to run. I think the derby luck rained down on him, but doubt if he will be anywhere around in the Preakness or Belmont.

The one big thing that skews any set of numbers in the Kentucky Derby, whether GSV or in handicapping is the three levels of security around these horses AND the knowledge that they will be "supertested." My opinion is that trainers and vets know there is a greater likelihood of getting caught both in the Derby and the undercard graded stakes and this is why their horses don't run to form.

What about Friesan Fire, where does he fit in your numbers? I thought he was too much of a race horse to not run at all because of a grabbed quarter.

[Nessa]

I don't feel like you guys failed. Straight statistics don't take into account a horse coming into his own all of a sudden(Mine That Bird got a great ride and ran a spectacular race). Off-tracks and the horses who can't adapt to them(Churchill can be quirky when muddy). In-race injuries(Freisan Fire had part of his left front hoof sheared off). Swallowing a ton of mud(Dunkirk apparently went back to the barn and coughed up a trackful) or any of the things that can happen during the running of the Kentucky Derby. It could just be that there is something in Mine That Bird's pedigree that you guys just haven't identified yet. We get to see if Mine That Bird can continue to run well or if this was a fluke. We get to see if those who missed the Derby can regain their form or if they've been compromised by their injuries. This is what makes racing so interesting and wonderful.