Smarty's full sib

[Heidilady]

A few ideas/questions to toss out when I recalled that I'll Get Along was sold in foal to Elusive Quality for $5 million. I realize due date is not exactly common knowledge but I wondered how much longer before we get "Smarty II" so to speak. It's almost March and I presume if she's not due now, it'll be in the next month or so given how big Smarty got before April of last year. Not to say that's the only reason she was bred to EQ but you know what I mean. Anybody know when she's due?

If it's a colt we'll have to look at it with the usual high pressure that comes with a foal with such celebrated relations that could go to the BC Juvenile and possibly Derby...you just know a colt will get more Derby expectations ala Harlington and Fusaichi Samurai. Would you expect the foal to be sold at auction as a yearling? Granted it'll be worth a lot but heck if it's a nice colt I'd be interested in trying to finish the job with the TC, not just being known for breeding him. The quick payoff is yearling sales, the bigger payoff (if all things go well, big IF--super super risky) is stallion syndication. If it's a filly what would you do? Nice broodmare prospect and would you even race her? Try to get a graded stakes and retire asap? Either way I expect it on the auction block but being a horse junkie I'd be very selfish and keep it if it was me. Not the greatest idea sure but some might've thought keeping a horse who cracked his head on the track was silly too. I just wanted to do a "Smarty's full sib, what you would do?" either as the breeder or future purchaser...I know there's alot of angles from which to approach this.

[Sysonby]

I'll Get Along was reportedly last bred April 4th--I'd say any day now.

[LSB]

I'm too much of a pragmatist. I never would have paid 5M for I'll Get Along. Based on empirical evidence, the chance of Smarty Jones's full silbling having his talent is virtually nil. If I'd owned the offspring, I'd sell it as a yearling to try and recoup some of the purchase price on the dam.

[louis finochio]

You must race the full sibling to Smarty, as these TB are athlete's they must face the starter. To sit on them and not race them is a mortal sin.

[reenci]

come on people when the rubber meets the road you have to SELL the sibling, its the smart thing to do and this is a game of chance to the 100th power.....unless of course you are independently wealthy ...which im not so i would sell..now on the other hand if i was say up there in years and looking at the sunset of life and had never had a horse of that quality..i would race .but all things being equal...sell the colts and keep the fillys.

[Joe]

If I bought her for that price, I would breed back to Elusive Quality, sell the yearling, breed back to Elusive Quality, sell the yearling, breed back to Elusive Quality and sell the mare before any of them hit the track.

Sell the hope.

[Johar]

$5m for that mare was a crazy price. Considering that on the same night Castleton Lyons paid $3.35m for Toccet, and had 145 mares booked to him within about 2 weeks at $12,500 and then $17,500 apiece.

It's a nice story, and I hope the mare turns out to be blue-hen, but her price tag, and Smarty's own $100,000 stud fee represent some of the worst value in TB breeding, IMO.

LSB put it best, saying that "the chance of Smarty Jones's full sibling having his talent is virtually nil".

[st. louis kid]

I thought they made a very smart purchase. I predict that the owners will recoup their 5 mil. investment with the first 3 foals they sell as yearlings. Unless the current foal has legs like a pretzel, if he is a colt he could sell for 2-3 mil. if you get the right two bidders against each other.
You also must figure in the tax benefits they are deriving via depreciation.

[Tairaterces]

I'm too much of a pragmatist. I never would have paid 5M for I'll Get Along. Based on empirical evidence, the chance of Smarty Jones's full silbling having his talent is virtually nil. If I'd owned the offspring, I'd sell it as a yearling to try and recoup some of the purchase price on the dam.

LSB you have to be more optimistic . . . . . .

Cee Reubens didn't do to bad with her winning combination of Cee's Tizzy and Cee's Song = BudRoyale, Tiznow, Tizdubai and Tizbud. Tizdubai and Tizbud could have been so much more had they had the right conditioner.

T

[Sam]

The only smart thing to do with that mare right now is use her commercially.

Sell every foal she drops. Chances are VERY good she never throws anything even remotely like Jones again (see Secrettame) BUT she'll still sell well for years to come.

I don't see this being a "foundation mare" type though so I wouldn't be looking to any daughters she might have as being future top broodie prospects.

[Joe]

I agree with Sam. I'd sell hats and tee-shirts too.

[Heidilady]

I'm loving the discussion on this. Thanks guys! I have to say cynically I too would expect them to sell but if the yearling turns out looking like a million bucks (literally perhaps) it might be good to keep the mare since she appears to be consistent and even if the first one's a dud on the track you can get another year or so out of her before they catch on that it was a fluke. That extends your profit another million or two right? I'm still hoping I'll Get Along's the next Somethingroyal but don't we always? I'm leaning towards not but I'd love a new Toussaud or Personal Ensign or whatever.