he should be horse of the year.
I dont' think he WILL win.
but he has done too much, even in losing to rachael, to not give it to him i he beats all commers on a surface he has never started on.
he should be given credit for going out there and giving it a shot.
if summer bird wins the classic...
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bdw0617
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if summer bird wins the classic...
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wangkw
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Summer Bird is a good thing beyond any doubt..in the other years...that is enought for HOY..Charismatic is a vivid example...but not this
year...2009 is the romance of 3 kingdoms..The only way SB can stay alive in contention is by winning the Classic..loses it he is surely out
and that holds whether or not ZEN will get herself a Classic in Men or Ladies..if both guys return empty-handed, you know who will be
crowned..If ZEN delivers either one.. she will shut everyone out regardless of what SB will make. But if ZEN gets nothing on those 2 days
but SB hits, I will say..at a 95% confidence level.. the chauvinisim factor will kick in nicely for him and the beginning of Summer holidays
will be declared.
Over the years I think the award scoring guidelines go like these, in order of priority :
Breeders' Cup races
Triple Crown series
Competitiveness
Unresticted for ages
Unrestricted for genders
Middle distance 8 to 12 furongs
Non-Turf
Turf
All others
The fate of Rachel Alexndra is beyond her own control.
SUMMARY :
ZEN wins either Classic...ZEN is HOY
SB wins and ZEN loses...SB is HOY
ZEN and SB both lose...RA is HOY.
year...2009 is the romance of 3 kingdoms..The only way SB can stay alive in contention is by winning the Classic..loses it he is surely out
and that holds whether or not ZEN will get herself a Classic in Men or Ladies..if both guys return empty-handed, you know who will be
crowned..If ZEN delivers either one.. she will shut everyone out regardless of what SB will make. But if ZEN gets nothing on those 2 days
but SB hits, I will say..at a 95% confidence level.. the chauvinisim factor will kick in nicely for him and the beginning of Summer holidays
will be declared.
Over the years I think the award scoring guidelines go like these, in order of priority :
Breeders' Cup races
Triple Crown series
Competitiveness
Unresticted for ages
Unrestricted for genders
Middle distance 8 to 12 furongs
Non-Turf
Turf
All others
The fate of Rachel Alexndra is beyond her own control.
SUMMARY :
ZEN wins either Classic...ZEN is HOY
SB wins and ZEN loses...SB is HOY
ZEN and SB both lose...RA is HOY.
Last edited by wangkw on Fri Oct 16, 2009 10:01 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Falling But In Rising Everytime We Fall
BDW, are you a baseball fan? Even if you aren't, bear with me on this one for a minute...
Do you know Juan Marichal? Hall of Fame pitcher for the Giants who pitched in '60s and '70s. He won over 240 games in his career, won 20 games in a season 6 different times, had a career ERA of under 3.00, struck out over 2300 batters, and never won a Cy Young Award. Take his 1963 stats: 25 wins, 8 losses, 2.41 ERA, 248 strikeouts. That's a Cy Young-worthy season. I mean, the year before, in 1962, Don Drysdale's stats looked like this: 25-9, 2.83 ERA, 232 strikeouts. So Marichal's '63 season was better, considering he won the same number of games, lost one fewer game, gave up almost half a run less per game and struck out more guys.
Here's the trouble. Poor Marichal had the misfortune of pitching in the same league as a guy named Sandy Koufax, and Koufax's 1963 was even better than Marichal: 25-5, 1.88 ERA, 306 strikeouts. So crap. Marichal's out of luck, because Koufax's season is clearly better. So how about 1968, where Marichal went 26-9, with a 2.43 ERA and 218 strikeouts? After all, the guy that won the award in 1967 (Marichal's "stablemate" no less!) was 22-10, with a 2.85 ERA and only 150 strikeouts. So surely Marichal's '68 season is deserving of the award, right? Well, no. Crap. Poor Marichal had the misfortune of being in the same league in '68 as a guy named Bob Gibson, and old Bobby happened to have one of the most amazing seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. Sure, Bob went 22-9 with 268 strikeouts, and maybe argue that Juan's four more wins negated Bob's 50 more strikeouts. Except Bob Gibson had a microscopic 1.12 ERA in 1968, almost exactly half of Juan's. The balance was tipped firmly in Bob's favor, and no one in their right mind could vote for Juan over Bob in 1968.
So to make the point explicit, I'm saying that Summer Bird is Juan Marichal--a top performer that would likely win the top award in nearly any other year. He just had the misfortune of racing the same year as a horse that put together a once-in-a-lifetime campaign. Poor Summer Bird. Poor Juan Marichal. It happens. Still, both can and should be acknowledged for their accomplishments.
Do you know Juan Marichal? Hall of Fame pitcher for the Giants who pitched in '60s and '70s. He won over 240 games in his career, won 20 games in a season 6 different times, had a career ERA of under 3.00, struck out over 2300 batters, and never won a Cy Young Award. Take his 1963 stats: 25 wins, 8 losses, 2.41 ERA, 248 strikeouts. That's a Cy Young-worthy season. I mean, the year before, in 1962, Don Drysdale's stats looked like this: 25-9, 2.83 ERA, 232 strikeouts. So Marichal's '63 season was better, considering he won the same number of games, lost one fewer game, gave up almost half a run less per game and struck out more guys.
Here's the trouble. Poor Marichal had the misfortune of pitching in the same league as a guy named Sandy Koufax, and Koufax's 1963 was even better than Marichal: 25-5, 1.88 ERA, 306 strikeouts. So crap. Marichal's out of luck, because Koufax's season is clearly better. So how about 1968, where Marichal went 26-9, with a 2.43 ERA and 218 strikeouts? After all, the guy that won the award in 1967 (Marichal's "stablemate" no less!) was 22-10, with a 2.85 ERA and only 150 strikeouts. So surely Marichal's '68 season is deserving of the award, right? Well, no. Crap. Poor Marichal had the misfortune of being in the same league in '68 as a guy named Bob Gibson, and old Bobby happened to have one of the most amazing seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. Sure, Bob went 22-9 with 268 strikeouts, and maybe argue that Juan's four more wins negated Bob's 50 more strikeouts. Except Bob Gibson had a microscopic 1.12 ERA in 1968, almost exactly half of Juan's. The balance was tipped firmly in Bob's favor, and no one in their right mind could vote for Juan over Bob in 1968.
So to make the point explicit, I'm saying that Summer Bird is Juan Marichal--a top performer that would likely win the top award in nearly any other year. He just had the misfortune of racing the same year as a horse that put together a once-in-a-lifetime campaign. Poor Summer Bird. Poor Juan Marichal. It happens. Still, both can and should be acknowledged for their accomplishments.
RA beat SB at a 1&1/8th miles....not a mile and a 1/4....she cant.....except in a match race...all things being equal....he beats her 8 out of say 10 times at a 1 1/4 distance....in the haskell he had to chase ....which is not his style....and that was 1 1/8th miles with her loose on the lead.
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
and one more quick point......SEA THE STARS.....fine and dandy year....but come on ...he was not going to win the breeders cup with... and i quote from his jockey"his wooly coat"...poor thing would have gotten heat stroke. ...im not knocking him ...had a fantastic year.....but he would have been up against it at this point in time.
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
Zen
Just another possibility. What IF: Summer Bird wins the Classic and Zenyatta wins against the ladies.....again already? Can Zenyatta win HOY without running against the boys? Still VERY surprised/disappointed in JJ for retiring RA for the year. Agree that without running, RA has NO control of her destiny.
I DO think Summer Bird will win the Classic thereby, hopefully, rightfully, HOY.
Who do you like, bdw, in the Classic if not SB?
I DO think Summer Bird will win the Classic thereby, hopefully, rightfully, HOY.
Who do you like, bdw, in the Classic if not SB?
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wangkw
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Gitano Hernando 'odds-on' to go for Classic
This is the latest headline in Racing Post this afternoon in UK. If he takes part in the Classic the owner wll have to buy a participation
ticket costing 250,000 apiece...what a gamble for his owners.
If the Classic field will stay at 14..some listed fellows there will have to move out..I believe the versatile Einstein will eventually find its
berth in THE BC Turf and not BC Mile (turf)..instead European hero RVW may join the BC Mile (turf) and Gio Ponti follows Einstein into the
12f furf event. But it will be anti-climate if Colonel John too takes on the Mile (turf) instead of the Classic.
The winner of Dubai Duty Free (9f) and Premio Vittorio De Capua (8F), GLADIATORUS, may swim across Atlantic to join in the Turf Mile too.
Now how about Zen ? I will think she should race with all her sisters instead of boys..she will certainly stand tall among the rest there.
This is the latest headline in Racing Post this afternoon in UK. If he takes part in the Classic the owner wll have to buy a participation
ticket costing 250,000 apiece...what a gamble for his owners.
If the Classic field will stay at 14..some listed fellows there will have to move out..I believe the versatile Einstein will eventually find its
berth in THE BC Turf and not BC Mile (turf)..instead European hero RVW may join the BC Mile (turf) and Gio Ponti follows Einstein into the
12f furf event. But it will be anti-climate if Colonel John too takes on the Mile (turf) instead of the Classic.
The winner of Dubai Duty Free (9f) and Premio Vittorio De Capua (8F), GLADIATORUS, may swim across Atlantic to join in the Turf Mile too.
Now how about Zen ? I will think she should race with all her sisters instead of boys..she will certainly stand tall among the rest there.
Last edited by wangkw on Thu Oct 15, 2009 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Falling But In Rising Everytime We Fall
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wangkw
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No one knows... but is 14 for 14 capped with a ladies' classic not as good as HOY ? Worth the gamble...if she runs and wins in the Ladies'
version and also gets the crown (and with high probability that will happen if she does win)..it will have the best of 2 worlds.
Key is.. Zen's chance in the Classic is many times worse than the Ladies'...it is a matter of probability. If she loses the Classic, she might
also lose the crown.
The problem with SB is he has not won enough..so he needs the Classic badly..the current top players :
Rachel Alexandra 1G1 2G1(3yo) 2G1(3yo, Lady) 2G2(3yo, Lady)
GIO PONTI 4G1(Turf)
Zenyatta 3G1(Lady) 1G2(Lady)
Zensational 3G1
Summer Bird 1G1 2G1(3yo)
Of these 4 guys I agree SB has his all 3 wins in competitive environment... Belmont S, Travers ann JCGC..that was what the
super star Easy Goer had achieved before passing away.
Zen has never beaten a boy..but its 13 for 13 plus Ladies's Classic last year surely have impressed everyone...kind of subtle here.
RA I hope will join the Breeders Cup festival next year.
version and also gets the crown (and with high probability that will happen if she does win)..it will have the best of 2 worlds.
Key is.. Zen's chance in the Classic is many times worse than the Ladies'...it is a matter of probability. If she loses the Classic, she might
also lose the crown.
The problem with SB is he has not won enough..so he needs the Classic badly..the current top players :
Rachel Alexandra 1G1 2G1(3yo) 2G1(3yo, Lady) 2G2(3yo, Lady)
GIO PONTI 4G1(Turf)
Zenyatta 3G1(Lady) 1G2(Lady)
Zensational 3G1
Summer Bird 1G1 2G1(3yo)
Of these 4 guys I agree SB has his all 3 wins in competitive environment... Belmont S, Travers ann JCGC..that was what the
super star Easy Goer had achieved before passing away.
Zen has never beaten a boy..but its 13 for 13 plus Ladies's Classic last year surely have impressed everyone...kind of subtle here.
RA I hope will join the Breeders Cup festival next year.
Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Falling But In Rising Everytime We Fall
I think Z will enter the Classic and win. Hard to argue that she is not equal to or better than RA. RA has already beaten all the contenders less Gitano Hernando. The pace should be perfect for her closing style and I think she'll relish the distance.
If she doesn't fire I have a sneaky feeling MTB is going to run a big one. I think he needed his last and his race was a lot better than it looked. There was absolutely no pace in the Goodwood.
If she doesn't fire I have a sneaky feeling MTB is going to run a big one. I think he needed his last and his race was a lot better than it looked. There was absolutely no pace in the Goodwood.
Here is my opinion...
Z can only win HOY if she races in the Classic and wins.
Even if she wins the Ladies, she won't get it over RA.
SB will be the ONLY horse that could possibly get the title if he wins the classic. And that will be a close vote if he wins.
I don't believe that Z will run in the classic. If she does, I will be as happy as the rest of us should be. But they scratched her over rain at Churchill. They won't take this risk IMO.
If Rachel stays sound and performs the way she should, she will be campaigned to run in the BC next year because it will finally be on DIRT.
Z can only win HOY if she races in the Classic and wins.
Even if she wins the Ladies, she won't get it over RA.
SB will be the ONLY horse that could possibly get the title if he wins the classic. And that will be a close vote if he wins.
I don't believe that Z will run in the classic. If she does, I will be as happy as the rest of us should be. But they scratched her over rain at Churchill. They won't take this risk IMO.
If Rachel stays sound and performs the way she should, she will be campaigned to run in the BC next year because it will finally be on DIRT.
Barbaro06 wrote:Santa Anita shouldn't get the Cup for a few years, with the 2009 edition it will have hosted the BC five times. Churchill has hosted it six times. I would personally like to have it at some other tracks.
I am all for the BC to move to Different venues, as long as the surfaces fit the bill for all of the races. IOW, no more tracks that have synthetic surfaces to use for the dirt races. Those events should be run on DIRT.
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Worksoplad
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zinn21 wrote:I think Z will enter the Classic and win. Hard to argue that she is not equal to or better than RA. RA has already beaten all the contenders less Gitano Hernando. The pace should be perfect for her closing style and I think she'll relish the distance.
If she doesn't fire I have a sneaky feeling MTB is going to run a big one. I think he needed his last and his race was a lot better than it looked. There was absolutely no pace in the Goodwood.
If you mean contenders for HOY, OK. If you mean contenders for the BCC, I think the Euros, RVW, Mastercraftsman and Twice Over (at latest count) will have something to say about that.
But I still firmly believe that Summer Bird will run a huge race, and if he takes to the Pro Ride, I think he'll win, regardless of who comes to the party.
"Who kills a man kills a reasonable creature, but he who destroys a good book kills reason itself." John Milton.