Inbreeding to Almahmoud 4x4

[brogers]

Just messing around with the Query by inbreeding function on the new Pedigree Analysis program and I stumbled across something interesting (at least to me Smile).

Inbreeding to Almahmoud 4x4

Colts inbred - 291 foals, 224 (77.0%)starters, 169 (58.1%) winners, 22 (7.6%) SW, earnings of $19,899,351

Fillies inbred - 261 foals, 190 (72.8%) starters, 113 (43.3%) winners, 14 (5.4%) SW, earnings of $8,623,261

Colts inbred to Almahmoud 4x4 have easily outperformed fillies bred the same way and indeed earned well over double on the racetrack.

[kimberley mine]

Interesting but not surprising, given what turned up in G1 Goldmine a few years ago about linebreeding to Northern Dancer through two sons was exponentially more successful than linebreeding to Northern Dancer through two daughter strains.

Out of curiousity, can you make your searches in that program more specific...as in, how many were linebred 4x4 to Almahmoud NOT through Natalma (e.g. Tomsah and Arctic Tern), how many were 4x4 to Almahmoud via Cosmah and Natalma but NOT Northern Dancer, etc?

[brogers]

Interesting but not surprising, given what turned up in G1 Goldmine a few years ago about linebreeding to Northern Dancer through two sons was exponentially more successful than linebreeding to Northern Dancer through two daughter strains.

KMine,

That assertion by Goldmine was actually proven thoroughly wrong.

Unlike this program, Goldmine doesn't use all the data (i.e foals bred, runners, winners, etc) They use a stakes winning population and make a theoretical calculation based on this so their calculations are based on hypothetical not real opportunity.

The Pedigree Analysis Program showed that inbreeding to two females outperformed on a SW/Foals basis than other methods of inbreeding to Northern Dancer.

Through (SW/Fls)

FxF = 3.94%
FxM = 2.76%
MxF = 2.43%
MxM = 2.29%

[Fireslam]

Im not saying you're wrong, but that is really hard to believe.

[brogers]

Im not saying you're wrong, but that is really hard to believe.

It is the data from the Jockey Club which has the most complete database in the world. Most of the inbreeding FxF occurred in Argentina where you have Southern Halo and Mutakddim prominent in the population.

Why is it hard to believe?

[kimberley mine]

Going back to my original question, does the software possess the capability of teasing out subsets of data?

Using the 4x4 Almahmoud as an example, is one able to look for subsets in the population using And/Or/Not values?

E.g.

4x4 Almahmoud with NO Northern Dancer
4x4 Almahmoud where one strain is Arctic Tern
4x4 Almahmoud where the strains are Northern Dancer and Halo

The ability to do the above adds a great deal of subtlety and nuance to this otherwise interesting and useful tool.

[Fireslam]

Im not saying you're wrong, but that is really hard to believe.

It is the data from the Jockey Club which has the most complete database in the world. Most of the inbreeding FxF occurred in Argentina where you have Southern Halo and Mutakddim prominent in the population.

Why is it hard to believe?

You now explained it as mostly in Arg. thru Southern Halo and Mutakddim. In North America and Europe, you'd see so much linebreeding with Danzig/Danehill/Sadlers Wells. Very few thru mares, since Northern Dancer wasnt a very strong Broodmare sire.

[diomed]

Getting a bit off topic here but I wonder what the stats are for inbreeding to Thong/Special(Rough Shod II clan). I have seen a lot of good horses with that pattern as well...
Byron, if you get a chance, can you look that up too?

[brogers]

Going back to my original question, does the software possess the capability of teasing out subsets of data?

Using the 4x4 Almahmoud as an example, is one able to look for subsets in the population using And/Or/Not values?

E.g.

4x4 Almahmoud with NO Northern Dancer
4x4 Almahmoud where one strain is Arctic Tern
4x4 Almahmoud where the strains are Northern Dancer and Halo

The ability to do the above adds a great deal of subtlety and nuance to this otherwise interesting and useful tool.

Kmine,

Not yet. We are looking at adding this in a product update in a couple of months.

Byron

[brogers]

Getting a bit off topic here but I wonder what the stats are for inbreeding to Thong/Special(Rough Shod II clan). I have seen a lot of good horses with that pattern as well...
Byron, if you get a chance, can you look that up too?

No problem.

Horses inbred to Thong between generations two and four.

718 foals 438 (61.0%) runners, 242 (33.7%) winners, 22 (3.1%) SW, $16,461,227 earnings.

Inbred to Special between generations two and four

2,656 foals, 1,309 (49.3%) runners, 675 (25.4%) winners, 57 (2.1%) SW, $62,638,332 earnings.

Inbred to Fairy Bridge between generations two and four

1,454 foals, 514 (35.4%)runners, 219 (15.1%) winners, 7 (0.5%) SW and $12,557,092 earnings.

It must be noted that especially with Fairy Bridge it includes a lot of two year olds in Europe that are horses of racing age, but yet to race.

[diomed]

Byron, I have been so busy lately I haven't had time to check this thread. Thank you for posting your response. I really appreciate it.

[kimberley mine]

Getting a bit off topic here but I wonder what the stats are for inbreeding to Thong/Special(Rough Shod II clan). I have seen a lot of good horses with that pattern as well...
Byron, if you get a chance, can you look that up too?

No problem.

Horses inbred to Thong between generations two and four.

718 foals 438 (61.0%) runners, 242 (33.7%) winners, 22 (3.1%) SW, $16,461,227 earnings.

Inbred to Special between generations two and four

2,656 foals, 1,309 (49.3%) runners, 675 (25.4%) winners, 57 (2.1%) SW, $62,638,332 earnings.

Inbred to Fairy Bridge between generations two and four

1,454 foals, 514 (35.4%)runners, 219 (15.1%) winners, 7 (0.5%) SW and $12,557,092 earnings.

It must be noted that especially with Fairy Bridge it includes a lot of two year olds in Europe that are horses of racing age, but yet to race.

Okay, next question. Will the software publish a report of where these horses are located?

You already pointed out that the poor runners-to-foals ratio for Fairy Bridge includes a lot of 2yos in Europe. There is also the purse breakdown issue--especially with the linebreeding to Special. How many of those are running in Japan, where purses are very high and they love the Kingmambo line? (I'm thinking specifically of this mare, who is a stakes-placed allowance winner with higher earnings than your average South African champion.)

Or, to use the example of Argentina with Southern Halo and Mutakddim, there might be a cross in one country that looks like an absolute KNOCKOUT--but because the purses are lower, the earnings don't look so high and thus the mating not so good.