I don't understand what matz is doing with union rags

[bdw0617]

I will admit the horse has a little bit of run. but, now that he knows he has a derby horse, he is more concerned about getting him there than winning it.

i promise you as it stands, he has no chance to win hte derby. none. he will not win the derby off 1 and a half preps @ gulfstream speedway and in his third race back tackle the derby. he's not big brown. i don't understand why he has not went with a more agressive campaign. it's not like his pedigree is ozzing with stanima influences, at leat up close. you would think that might be something you want to build up. he has the talent to win but he won't have the foundation to win.

it's kinda like, the only way matz was able to successfully train a derby horse.. in barbaro. it's almost like he had to back into it so to speak. I mean he has this nice turff h orse, ho humm.. okay he's a really nice turf horse.. okay he's a REALLLLY nice turf horse. hum.. he is 3. they are running the fountain of youth stakes next week.. what the hell let's run him he might place. shit he won lol? i....guess we have to run in the florida derby too.. wow we won that too.

by the time april rolled around barbaro had a foundation under him that most derby horses can only dream of but he kinda backed into it if that makes sense. had he known he had a derby horse from the jump he probably would have babied him half to death too.

run the damn horse for crying out loud. i can't possibly see how this man thinks he is going to win the derby with this foundation he is giving him. and we see it year in and year out.

[Terrapin Flyer]

Not a Matz fan by any stretch...but I hope nobody feeds the retardeds and replys

[bdw0617]

just stating my opinion. sorry you think I'm a retard. I just don't agree with the 2 preps and derby. it doesn't work. it especially doesn't work if your horse is really a sprinter.

[kimberley mine]

just stating my opinion. sorry you think I'm a retard. I just don't agree with the 2 preps and derby. it doesn't work. it especially doesn't work if your horse is really a sprinter.

It's things like this, combined with listening to chattering about bringing staying blood back to the US, that makes me want to beat my head against the wall. The genetics are HERE. The horses are HERE. The training to get a horse fit to run long distances safely and competitively is NOT.

Take a look at the Australian weight-for-age racing schedule from here to the BMW:

10 Feb Gr-2 Expressway--1200m
20 Feb Gr-1 Futurity Stakes--1400m
10 Mar Gr-1 Chipping Norton--1600m
24 Mar Gr-1 Ranvet Stakes--2000m
7 Apr Gr-1 BMW Stakes--2400m, or head over to Melbourne for the Oz cup.

The horses pointed for the BMW (think Pinker Pinker) hop on the train at the Futurity and run every 2 to 2 1/2 weeks until it's time for the big show, getting fitter along the way, meeting a few stayers who've been running in the cups and dropping back in trip, and the 3yos coming in from the New Zealand Derby. The sprinter/miler types can go along until the Chipping Norton, and then on to the Doncaster Mile.

Supposedly that's how the Derby preps work, except that's how it's NOT worked for the last few years. A horse will get maybe three races in four months, none of which are long enough nor close enough to build up the cardiovascular fitness needed to go the trip. Watching them crawl home in longer races with their tongues dragging on the ground is evidence that they're not getting the fitness in workouts, either.

[bdw0617]

just stating my opinion. sorry you think I'm a retard. I just don't agree with the 2 preps and derby. it doesn't work. it especially doesn't work if your horse is really a sprinter.

It's things like this, combined with listening to chattering about bringing staying blood back to the US, that makes me want to beat my head against the wall. The genetics are HERE. The horses are HERE. The training to get a horse fit to run long distances safely and competitively is NOT.

Take a look at the Australian weight-for-age racing schedule from here to the BMW:

10 Feb Gr-2 Expressway--1200m
20 Feb Gr-1 Futurity Stakes--1400m
10 Mar Gr-1 Chipping Norton--1600m
24 Mar Gr-1 Ranvet Stakes--2000m
7 Apr Gr-1 BMW Stakes--2400m, or head over to Melbourne for the Oz cup.

The horses pointed for the BMW (think Pinker Pinker) hop on the train at the Futurity and run every 2 to 2 1/2 weeks until it's time for the big show, getting fitter along the way, meeting a few stayers who've been running in the cups and dropping back in trip, and the 3yos coming in from the New Zealand Derby. The sprinter/miler types can go along until the Chipping Norton, and then on to the Doncaster Mile.

Supposedly that's how the Derby preps work, except that's how it's NOT worked for the last few years. A horse will get maybe three races in four months, none of which are long enough nor close enough to build up the cardiovascular fitness needed to go the trip. Watching them crawl home in longer races with their tongues dragging on the ground is evidence that they're not getting the fitness in workouts, either.

this is a good post. I love pinker pinker BTW.

you know, the preps, just did not get the way they are by chance. they are designed to run in one. then the next. then the next. and hit a boiling point at the derby. now, they are cherry picking preps to avoid other horses. you get a bad end result.

i agree with you on pedigrees. I have a philosophy on that. my theory is that horses, have a pre determined set of abilities they possess. some will naturally relish running long, some won't. some will naturally take to 1 turn races.

i think, a horse can be made to do something he is not necessarily wired to do from the get to. Look at Gio Ponti which i think was one of the great training jobs in the last 5 or 10 years, that horse as a 2 and 3 YO wanted NO part of 9F races and by t he time he was 4 he was going off as a 3/5 fav in 12F grade 1 races. at the beginning of his career gio ponti was a died in the wool miler. ever notice how everytime Clemente would hit a cold patch with him ne would shorten him back to a mile and poof. streak over. horse loved a mile. anyway, I think though, that it takes some real horsemanship, and long term strategic planning to do that (get a horse to do something he isn't necessarily wired to do). I don't think our trainers are doing that (for the most part). for the most part, what you have are people running in the easiest spots hoping to get enough money to get to the derby, then you have like, 15 or 16 trainers/owners basically just hoping "something happens" and they get to the wire first.

one of the things I look for is not really talent, well yes talent but I gravitate towards the horses that have the most well thought out and definitive plans that will allow them to finish on the first saturday in may which is why I am enamored with creative cause. he might not win the race but i assure you he will have his running shoes on when the time comes. everything harngton is doing with him right now, every workout, every race, is with one goal in mind, to peak on the first saturday in may. doesn't need earnings so they can do waht they damn well please.

I guess my frustration with matz is that in my opinion he's not sending his horse to the derby with adequate training which I mean, isn't new (for some trainers). I could understand if you had a horse that was just.. THAT much better than the other horses, that all you had to do is get him to the race healthy and in one piece and he would show up. Arazi (thought that didn't work out i could see the rationale), big brown. Union rags is not one of those horses. he needs a foundation to run that day.

[kimberley mine]

this is a good post. I love pinker pinker BTW.

you know, the preps, just did not get the way they are by chance. they are designed to run in one. then the next. then the next. and hit a boiling point at the derby. now, they are cherry picking preps to avoid other horses. you get a bad end result.

i agree with you on pedigrees. I have a philosophy on that. my theory is that horses, have a pre determined set of abilities they possess. some will naturally relish running long, some won't. some will naturally take to 1 turn races.

The predetermined ability to run classic to staying distances never left. Look at Kitten's Joy--this horse could run 12f with a smile on his face. There are only four names on his page that aren't from North America OR have exclusively North American parents....Rough Shod, Nearco, Forli and Princequillo. El Prado himself may have been born in Ireland, but he was by a NA-bred for 3 generations sire out of a NA-bred dam, and stood his whole stallion career in the US. AP Indy, Dynaformer, Arch, Malibu Moon, Pleasantly Colony and his sons, Cozzene, Wild Again, Street Cry, Tiznow, Thunder Gulch....all of these horses can and do get stayers, and if they're not standing RIGHT NOW, their sons and daughters can and do get stayers. I have a feeling that Blame could have gone 12-14f, had he been trained to do so. Invasor looks like they want to run a minimum of 12f.

It's a cheap excuse to say there is no stamina in the US/Canadian thoroughbred gene pool when the SAME HORSES are shuttling to Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina, Brasil, and Chile, and their offspring out of mares sired by north american stallions are winning staying races at all levels. New Zealand and Argentinian mares are stamina-heavy, but Aussie and Saffa mares are generally speedballs....and yet Western Winter, Fort Wood, Red Ransom, and Street Cry get routers from them. That stamina has to be coming from somewhere.

for the most part, what you have are people running in the easiest spots hoping to get enough money to get to the derby, then you have like, 15 or 16 trainers/owners basically just hoping "something happens" and they get to the wire first.

I think part of this is the need for graded earnings. If you have enough to guarantee you a spot in the race, you don't NEED to race.

And that's why I don't bother to bet on any of the triple crown races. A work tells me NOTHING about how a horse will handle race conditions. If I'm looking at a field where most of the horses have five starts or fewer lifetime, I don't know how well a horse even does at the business of racing, and I certainly have no clue on how well it will do running a route of ground. Total waste of money.

one of the things I look for is not really talent, well yes talent but I gravitate towards the horses that have the most well thought out and definitive plans that will allow them to finish on the first saturday in may

The WFA ladder in Sydney isn't just for the horses, it's for the punters.

[bdw0617]

I think part of this is the need for graded earnings. If you have enough to guarantee you a spot in the race, you don't NEED to race.

And that's why I don't bother to bet on any of the triple crown races. A work tells me NOTHING about how a horse will handle race conditions. If I'm looking at a field where most of the horses have five starts or fewer lifetime, I don't know how well a horse even does at the business of racing, and I certainly have no clue on how well it will do running a route of ground. Total waste of money.

the triple crown races are for pure entertainment for me. you can't handicap them like regular races. they aren't regular races. even the breeders cup races for the most part, by then you pretty mjuch have a good idea of who can do what and waht will happen.

but the kentucky derby has gotten to the point where.. it's like, not even a real race anymore. the field is 2x too big, half the horses in the filed are done before they hit the turn into the stretch and at least half of the trainers are just happy to be there , screw actually winning. you are basically playing a lottery. i play stanta anita on a friday.. i pretty much know what's going to happen. okay baffert has a first time starter, they are ready to go out the bat. roasrio just switched to this horse and he doesn't do that for fun he likes live mounts, this trainer doesn't work them this fast so when he does it's go time. with the derby you have 20 horses with about 15 or 18 trainers doing something they don't do or don't normally do

[kimberley mine]

the triple crown races are for pure entertainment for me. you can't handicap them like regular races. they aren't regular races. even the breeders cup races for the most part, by then you pretty mjuch have a good idea of who can do what and waht will happen.

Part of what makes the BC unusual is all the shippers. Just because Snookie the Wonder Horse is tearing up the track in fill in the blank country doesn't mean that its form will carry over to the new country. You see 3yos running against older for maybe the first time, or the east coast meeting the west coast for the first time. It's wonky and a crap shoot, but you can guarantee that the horses running in the 3yo+ races have at least some kind of consistent form, trainers have some kind of consistent form. Jockey form is a bit more variable. You can pretty well count on the track being juiced, unless it's been raining so hard a duck would start to complain.

But there's form.

It doesn't have to be that way, either. The filly races starting with the Oaks have reasonably consistent form, as do the turf races starting with the Colonial Turf Cup through to the Secretariat.

Back to the original topic of the thread, I find it odd that a former 3-day event trainer doesn't put a stamina base on his animals. Sure, you don't want to go over a XC course every day, but by golly you are doing a 4-mile gallop 4-5 days a week, because otherwise the cardio just isn't there.

This is where the heart rate conditioning really comes into play. Get the heart rate up, keep it in the correct interval for the correct length of time. It's no different than getting the cardio fitness correct for polo or eventing, two other intense sports that require intense conditioning.

[Bast]

The Kentucky Derby-as-Spectacle is a relatively recent development. It used to be a horse race, with strategies applied from early races.

Nothing will change until someone succeeds in winning with a very different approach than the present avoidance of races. Trainers used to use allowance races as training for their top horses; I saw Seattle Slew make such a start at Saratoga.

Maybe an Australian will be the one to do it, shipping in a "3-y-o" 6 months younger than most of the field, and blowing them away by being dead fit.

[Affirmed1]

My Derby horse. If you watch the replay of the F.O.Y., he has really turned into a physical monster. He'll get the classic distance- it's just a matter of how much the crowded Derby field impedes him. He has appeared to run rather greenly at times in the past, but there was no evidence of that in the F.O.Y. Hopefully he has grown out of that.

[zinn21]

Actually the number of three year old starts or lack thereof going into the Derby has varied over the years with success at both ends of the spectrum. Swaps won the Derby off two starts with a big gap between the SA Derby (2-19-55) and the Derby (5-7-55). Riva Ridge won the Derby off two starts. Secretariat; three starts. Cannonade; one start. Seattle Slew; three starts. So a lightly raced three year old going into the Derby is not exclusively a recent phenomena..

Regarding Union Rags, I think he is undoubtedly the best three year old I've seen so far. I think Matz has a real opportunity to run the table with this colt. He looked super good the other day. His stride is so fluid, I think he will run all day despite his pedigree..

[bdw0617]

Actually the number of three year old starts or lack thereof going into the Derby has varied over the years with success at both ends of the spectrum. Swaps won the Derby off two starts with a big gap between the SA Derby (2-19-55) and the Derby (5-7-55). Riva Ridge won the Derby off two starts. Secretariat; three starts. Cannonade; one start. Seattle Slew; three starts. So a lightly raced three year old going into the Derby is not exclusively a recent phenomena..

rotfl, but you are talking about freggin swaps, seattle slew, riva ridge and big red. hell i am pretty sure seattle slew could have made his seasonal debut in the derby and still won.


but you make a valid arguement and i respect that. As i stated, I don't have so much an issue with 2 starts. There are times when i think that is very viable. espcially like seattle slew had ran so many times as a 2YO so did big red. union rags is still quite green.

Regarding Union Rags, I think he is undoubtedly the best three year old I've seen so far. I think Matz has a real opportunity to run the table with this colt. He looked super good the other day. His stride is so fluid, I think he will run all day despite his pedigree..

don't let that field fool you. it was not very good. the horse at fair grounds would have done pretty much the same thing to that field of horses. once algorithms was out that race was a walk over with the 4/5 fav being an allowance winner.

IMHO, union rags has faced one race in which he has really had horses on the same playing field as him and he lsot that race. every other race he has been in has been a paid workout i including htis one. there was nothing seriously in this race that was going to challenge him if he was healthy and ready to go.


I mean I don't think he's a bum he's a good horse. I just don't think he's particularly going to relish going 10F let alone 12F, I don';t think the trainer is preparing him to meet that challenge for the first time effectively, and I think you have probalby already seen his best.

[Matchemforever]

FYI, last I checked, Matz was not a three day event rider, he was a grand prix jumper rider. I seem to remember him riding in the Olympics.

Did Union Rags grow up and run straight, or did the change in jockey's make for a better run?

[kimberley mine]

rotfl, but you are talking about freggin swaps, seattle slew, riva ridge and big red. hell i am pretty sure seattle slew could have made his seasonal debut in the derby and still won.

but you make a valid arguement and i respect that. As i stated, I don't have so much an issue with 2 starts. There are times when i think that is very viable. espcially like seattle slew had ran so many times as a 2YO so did big red. union rags is still quite green.

Here are the records of some horses:

Secretariat--9 starts at 2
Riva Ridge--9 starts at 2
Swaps--6 starts at 2
Seattle Slew--3 starts at 2, 3 preps

Animal Kingdom--2 starts at 2, 2 preps, 3 PDR still in training
Super Saver--4 starts at 2, 2 preps, 3 PDR never met older
Mine That Bird--5 starts at 2, 2 preps, 9 PDR
Big Brown--1 start at 2, 2 preps, 4 PDR never met older
Street Sense--5 starts at 2, 2 preps, 5 PDR
Barbaro--2 starts at 2, 2 preps, 1 PDR died
Giacomo--4 starts at 2, 3 preps, 8 PDR
Smarty Jones--2 starts at 2, 4 preps, 2 PDR never met older
Funny Cide--3 starts at 2, 3 preps, 31 PDR
War Emblem--4 starts at 2, 4 preps, 5 PDR
Monarchos--2 starts at 2, 4 preps, 3 PDR
Fusaichi Pegasus--1 start at 2, 4 preps, 3 PDR
Charismatic--7 starts at 2, 7 preps, 2 PDR injured in Belmont
Real Quiet--9 starts at 2, 3 preps, 7 PDR
Silver Charm--3 starts at 2, 3 preps, 17 PDR
Grindstone--2 starts at 2, 3 preps, injured in Derby
Thunder Gulch--6 starts at 2, 3 preps, 6 PDR

There's lies, darn lies, and statistics, but even so I think this is instructive. If you go from Giacomo back to Thunder Gulch, 11 foal crops, only 3 of those 11 didn't at least finish their 3yo season by meeting older horses. Even for those that had only a few starts past the Derby, they either made it to the JCGC or BC, or in Monarchos' case, tried a 4yo comeback. Seattle Slew was about average in terms of starts and preps for the last 15 year. Riva Ridge, Secretariat, and Swaps had more races and more seasoning at 2 than most of the horses on that list.

Starting with Barbaro, 2 prep races for the Derby is standard. And from Barbaro forward, we have half that list that never met older horses, only one horse (Street Sense) that was competitive against older horses, and the jury is still out on Animal Kingdom. Only Animal Kingdom has raced as a 4yo. Compare that to five horses who had only 3 preps as 3yos, Giacomo, Funny Cide, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, and Thunder Gulch...not only did every one of them finish out their 3yo seasons, all but Thunder Gulch started at 4 AND every one of those won at least one graded stake as an older horse. Thunder Gulch is an Ashford horse and they usually don't race past 3.

EDIT: Seven horses made 2 starts or fewer at 2: Grindstone, FuPeg, Monarchos, Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Big Brown, and Animal Kingdom. All but FuPeg were injured before the end of summer of their 3yo season. Three never made it past the Belmont. Monarchos and Animal Kingdom came back to race as 4yos.

If you look at the horses who ran 5 times or fewer before the Derby, you have Grindstone, FuPeg, Barbaro, Big Brown, and Animal Kingdom, four out of five did not finish their 3yo season due to injury, and the last, FuPeg, took a 5-month break after the Preakness to recover and never won again.

If you look at the 7 horses who ran 7 or more times before the Derby, only Charismatic did not at least finish out his 3yo season and run against older horses. That's not to say that the winners of those races were competitive against older--Mine That Bird never won again, Giacomo was a useful horse but never was Gr-1 level, War Emblem flamed out--but they were still around to race.

Bottom line: the horses who were FIT going into the Kentucky Derby, save one, ran out a full season. The horses who were not fit (and 2 preps at shorter distances is not fit for a 10f race) didn't. That one extra prep has historically made a tremendous difference in the racing longevity of the horses!

[bdw0617]

FYI, last I checked, Matz was not a three day event rider, he was a grand prix jumper rider. I seem to remember him riding in the Olympics.

Did Union Rags grow up and run straight, or did the change in jockey's make for a better run?

i thnk it has to do wih him growing up.

but i do find this interesting. i keep, stupidly meticulous stats on everything that is horse racing. by my record./. JL has never won a graded stakes race past 9F. I might be wrong but i really do not think so.